000
FXUS61 KOKX 311730
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1230 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be centered over Eastern New England through
tonight. A cold front approaches late Thursday before moving through
Thursday night. High pressure then gradually builds in from
Southeastern Canada Friday and remains in control into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track this afternoon.
Moisture that continues to be trapped beneath a subsidence
inversion will lead to mostly cloudy/overcast skies for the rest
of the afternoon. A few breaks are possible across east end of
Long Island and southeast CT, but the chance of this occurring
seems to be lowering given latest trends. Temperatures will be
close to seasonable levels in upper 30s and perhaps a few lower
40s.
Clouds will linger tonight as the subsidence inversion remains just
below 5 kft. The winds will be light and variable initially, then a
light SW flow attempts to initiate getting closer to daybreak.
Radiational influences will be minimized once again due to clouds
with night time temps, with night time minimums once again mainly in
the upper 20s to middle 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday clouds for the most part will remain intact. The
difference will be the absence of a light onshore flow, and more of
a return flow out of the WSW. This should get the cloud deck to lift
a bit by late morning, but with the remnants of the subsidence
inversion in place look for another mostly cloudy day. However,
there will likely be more in the way of breaks of sun in some spots.
Towards the afternoon however a mid level cloud deck lowers in
response to the next shortwave / cold front streaking towards the
area out of the northwest, thus breaking out into partial sunshine
will prove difficult once again. Despite the clouds temperatures
should get a bit milder on that WSW flow, with daytime maxes mainly
in the middle and upper 40s, a good 5 to 8 degrees above normal.
For Thursday night the shortwave and cold frontal boundary pivots
through the area. PoPs were kept fairly minimal as this system will
be moisture starved as the boundary comes from a dry source region.
Some rain showers may be associated with the leading edge of the
boundary, and as the boundary gets further east and colder air works
in, there will be the chance of a few snow showers. More so for
northern and inland locations away from the coast as the rear
portion of any precip pushes through towards early Fri AM. The
precip will be light and not expecting any impacts from whatever
precip there is for the Fri AM commute. At this time temps are not
likely to reach freezing towards daybreak except up north where
precip is expected to be further south at that time.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough moves through on Friday as a surface cold
front moves to the south and east of the region. There is very
little lift ahead of and with the cold front, and moisture is
limited to the lower levels. Therefore, went with a dry forecast.
However, there is a very low chance right now that some
precipitation lingers into Friday morning. If this were to be the
case, some rain showers would be expected.
Canadian high pressure then builds in Friday and remains into the
beginning of next week keeping the forecast area dry through then.
Seasonable temperatures can be expected from Saturday onward.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pres builds in thru Thu.
MVFR with a window of possible VFR late this aftn and eve. There
is some uncertainty tngt, but an MVFR TAF has been issued. There
is a chance conditions could go either way based on the
modeling, IFR or VFR depending on the model used. Based on the
current stlt and conditions, felt CIGs around 2500 ft seemed the
most reasonable.
Improvement likely on Thu although some residual low clouds
possible.
Winds lgt and vrb thru tngt, then a developing swly flow on Thu.
Speeds generally aob 11kt, although some locally higher speeds
possible at JFK.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for CIGs thru tngt.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Rest of Thursday: MVFR or lower developing Thu ngt with -RA
mixing with and possibly changing to -SN by 12Z Fri, especially
across the interior. SW flow veering to the W aft 6Z.
Friday: MVFR or lower with -SN, possibly mixed with -RA, in the
mrng, becoming VFR aft 18Z. Increasing N winds.
Saturday - Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A 9 to 10 second E swell will continue into tonight. Sub SCA
conditions will be in place with winds on the waters remaining
below SCA levels with a weak pressure gradient in place. Towards
Thursday afternoon the WSW flow begins to increase out ahead of
an approaching frontal system and with this there should be a
period of marginal small craft gusts and seas for the central
and eastern ocean zones. Behind the frontal system the winds
turn more northwesterly late Thursday night.
Then behind the cold front Friday night into early Saturday SCA
gusts will be possible on the ocean waters in a northwest flow.
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels across all the
waters late Saturday through early next week as high pressure
remains in control.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JP
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JE/JP
HYDROLOGY...JE/JP