000
FXUS61 KOKX 312331
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
631 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area tonight will weaken on Thursday. A
cold front will move across the region Thursday night into
Friday morning. High pressure then gradually builds in from
Southeastern Canada late Friday and remains in control into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strato cu deck remaining under a strong inversion around 5Kft
begins to weaken late this evening with weak surface high
pressure in place. Unsure of just how much clearing there will
be as an upper shortwave begins to approach from southern
Canada. Updated for the current conditions, and increased cloud
cover into the overnight.

An isolated sprinkle or flurry cannot be ruled out early this
evening. We have received a few reports and even observed some
very small/fine snow flakes at the office. This is likely due to
sea salt from SE flow off the ocean allowing for very small ice
nucleation within the stratocu deck.

Otherwise, high pressure sits over the area tonight. Cloudy
conditions will continue as soundings indicate a subsidence
inversion around 4 kft. An upper level ridge axis swings across
overnight as well. Lows will be similar to the last few nights due
to the continued cloud cover and generally in the upper 20s inland
to the lower 30s near the coast.

The ridge axis pushes offshore Thursday morning with heights
falling aloft ahead of shortwave approaching from SE Canada.
The surface high will weaken through the day as it sags to our
south. It will remain dry, but a SW flow develops bringing in a
slightly milder air mass to the region. Highs should reach the
lower to middle 40s for most with upper 40s in the NYC metro and
urban NE NJ corridor. Sky conditions are tricky as some of the
guidance is hinting at some partial clearing or at least some
scattering of the stratocu deck. The clouds have been much more
persistent over the last week in several occasions. Have trended
towards a more pessimistic sky cover forecast with mostly
cloudy conditions for Thursday. Even if the stratocu were to
scatter out, there may be increasing middle and upper level
moisture ahead of the shortwave to support mostly cloudy
conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The shortwave continues to dive southeastward Thursday
night, sending a cold front into the region. The 12z model
guidance has started to signal for a little better coverage
of precipitation accompanying the front. Moisture still is
limited, but there appears to be enough synoptic support to
warrant an increase in PoPs. Have capped PoPs off at chance, but
if latest trends persist these may need to be increased in
subsequent forecasts. Any precipitation that falls will be light
with liquid equivalent amounts around a tenth or less.
Temperatures are very marginal even across the interior. If
precip does develop, it will mainly be rain with potential for
some wet snow mixed in inland where temperatures drop into the
lower- middle 30s.

The front should be pushing offshore Friday morning, but the
shortwave does not fully move through until Friday afternoon.
Any lingering precip ends shortly after 12z, but mostly cloudy
conditions are likely to persist for much of the day. There is
a chance if the shortwave is faster that some partial clearing
occurs late in the day. Highs will continue above normal in the
middle 40s with some upper 40s in the NYC metro/urban NE NJ
corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough will be moving off the northeast and Mid
Atlantic coast Friday night, while slowly amplifying. Meanwhile, an
upper ridge remains to the west of the area and slowly weakening
into the middle of next week. At the surface low pressure and an
associated cold front will be off the northeast coast and the low
will be deepening while tracking east and northeast. Surface high
pressure will remain in control across the region, keeping the area
dry. A southern stream low does track through the Gulf Coast states,
and emerges off the Florida coast during the early part of next
week. The track of this low will be dependent on the strength of the
high to the north. Currently all guidance keeps the low to the
south, with the area remaining dry into the middle of next week.

Seasonable temperatures can be expected Friday night through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds in thru Thursday. A cold front approaches
from the northwest Thursday night.

Mainly VFR to start the evening, though cigs likely lower a bit
under 3 kft tonight, and prevail MVFR cigs after 2Z. Improvement
to VFR Thu AM, although some residual low clouds possible into
the afternoon. Cigs decline once more Thu evening ahead of an
approaching front, likely falling back to MVFR toward or just
after 00Z Friday.

Winds light and variable thru late evening, then a developing
swly flow on Thu. Speeds increase to around 10 kt Thursday,
although some locally higher speeds possible at JFK.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible tonight for changing categories.

Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by a couple of hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thu Night: MVFR or lower developing Thu ngt with -RA mixing
with and possibly changing to -SN by 12Z Fri, especially across
the interior. SW flow veering to the W aft 6Z.

Friday: MVFR or lower with -SN, possibly mixed with -RA, in the
mrng, becoming VFR aft 18Z. Increasing N winds.

Saturday - Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor changes to the western ocean zone seas as seas were
about a foot higher than forecast. Otherwise, no other changes
made to the winds and seas.

Long period E swells will continue into Thursday but
conditions should remain below SCA levels. The swells begin
to subside Thursday night into Friday. SW flow ahead of an
approaching cold front may bring an increase in wind gusts on
the ocean, but they should remain around 20 kt. Winds on all
waters should remain below SCA levels through Friday.

Behind a cold front, and departing deepening low pressure, Friday
night into early Saturday, SCA gusts will be possible on the
ocean waters in a northwest flow. Winds and seas remain below
advisory levels across all the waters later Saturday through
Monday as high pressure remains in control. Small craft
conditions will again be possible on the ocean waters Tuesday as
a northeast flow strengthens as low pressure passes to the
south. Winds and seas Tuesday will be dependent on the track and
strength of the low.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into the middle of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET