000
FXUS61 KOKX 010302
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1002 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area tonight will weaken on Thursday. A
cold front will move across the region Thursday night into
Friday morning. High pressure then gradually builds in from
Southeastern Canada late Friday and remains in control into the
middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strato cu deck persists under a strong inversion around 5 kft
that begins to weaken late tonight with weak surface high
pressure in place. An upper level ridge axis swings across
overnight as well. Lows will be similar to the last few nights
due to the continued cloud cover and generally in the upper 20s
inland to the lower 30s near the coast.
The ridge axis pushes offshore Thursday morning with heights
falling aloft ahead of shortwave approaching from SE Canada.
The surface high will weaken through the day as it sags to our
south. It will remain dry, but a SW flow develops bringing in a
slightly milder air mass to the region. Highs should reach the
lower to middle 40s for most with upper 40s in the NYC metro and
urban NE NJ corridor. Sky conditions are tricky as some of the
guidance is hinting at some partial clearing or at least some
scattering of the stratocu deck. The clouds have been much more
persistent over the last week in several occasions. Have trended
towards a more pessimistic sky cover forecast with mostly
cloudy conditions for Thursday. Even if the stratocu were to
scatter out, there may be increasing middle and upper level
moisture ahead of the shortwave to support mostly cloudy
conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The shortwave continues to dive southeastward Thursday
night, sending a cold front into the region. The 12z model
guidance has started to signal for a little better coverage
of precipitation accompanying the front. Moisture still is
limited, but there appears to be enough synoptic support to
warrant an increase in PoPs. Have capped PoPs off at chance, but
if latest trends persist these may need to be increased in
subsequent forecasts. Any precipitation that falls will be light
with liquid equivalent amounts around a tenth or less.
Temperatures are very marginal even across the interior. If
precip does develop, it will mainly be rain with potential for
some wet snow mixed in inland where temperatures drop into the
lower- middle 30s.
The front should be pushing offshore Friday morning, but the
shortwave does not fully move through until Friday afternoon.
Any lingering precip ends shortly after 12z, but mostly cloudy
conditions are likely to persist for much of the day. There is
a chance if the shortwave is faster that some partial clearing
occurs late in the day. Highs will continue above normal in the
middle 40s with some upper 40s in the NYC metro/urban NE NJ
corridor.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough will be moving off the northeast and Mid
Atlantic coast Friday night, while slowly amplifying. Meanwhile, an
upper ridge remains to the west of the area and slowly weakening
into the middle of next week. At the surface low pressure and an
associated cold front will be off the northeast coast and the low
will be deepening while tracking east and northeast. Surface high
pressure will remain in control across the region, keeping the area
dry. A southern stream low does track through the Gulf Coast states,
and emerges off the Florida coast during the early part of next
week. The track of this low will be dependent on the strength of the
high to the north. Currently all guidance keeps the low to the
south, with the area remaining dry into the middle of next week.
Seasonable temperatures can be expected Friday night through
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure in place thru Thursday. A cold front approaches
from the northwest Thursday night.
Mainly VFR tonight, though cigs may waver a bit under 3 kft at
times. Low confidence in this occurrence though, and pulled
back the prior prevailing MVFR cigs given latest obs. Still
cannot be ruled out at time into early Thu AM. Regardless,
improvement to VFR Thu AM, although some residual low clouds
possible into the afternoon. Cigs decline once more Thu evening
ahead of an approaching front, likely falling back to MVFR
toward or just after 00Z Friday. Potential IFR toward 06Z Friday
as rain develops.
Light SW flow develops overnight, persisting through Thursday.
Speeds increase to around 10 kt during the day, though some
locally higher speeds possible at JFK.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
MVFR cigs possible at times into early Thu AM.
Potential IFR cigs toward 06Z Friday.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thu Night: MVFR or lower developing Thu ngt with -RA mixing
with and possibly changing to -SN by 12Z Fri, especially across
the interior. SW flow veering to the W aft 6Z.
Friday: MVFR or lower with -SN, possibly mixed with -RA, in the
mrng, becoming VFR aft 18Z. Increasing N winds.
Saturday - Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Only minor changes to the western ocean zone seas as seas were
about a foot higher than forecast. Otherwise, no other changes
made to the winds and seas.
Long period E swells will continue into Thursday but
conditions should remain below SCA levels. The swells begin
to subside Thursday night into Friday. SW flow ahead of an
approaching cold front may bring an increase in wind gusts on
the ocean, but they should remain around 20 kt. Winds on all
waters should remain below SCA levels through Friday.
Behind a cold front, and departing deepening low pressure, Friday
night into early Saturday, SCA gusts will be possible on the
ocean waters in a northwest flow. Winds and seas remain below
advisory levels across all the waters later Saturday through
Monday as high pressure remains in control. Small craft
conditions will again be possible on the ocean waters Tuesday as
a northeast flow strengthens as low pressure passes to the
south. Winds and seas Tuesday will be dependent on the track and
strength of the low.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DR/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET