000
FXUS61 KOKX 011220
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
720 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaches from the north today and will drag a cold
front through the area tonight into early Friday morning. High
pressure then gradually builds in from Southeastern Canada Friday
and remains in control into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level ridge axis shifts east this morning ahead of an
approaching shortwave. At the surface, high pressure continues to
weaken as a low associated with the shortwave approaches from the
north. This low will drag a cold front through the area tonight into
early Friday morning.
Earlier this morning, skies cleared over the Lower Hudson
Valley, northeast NJ and NYC. This allowed temperatures to drop
lower than previously forecast. Some fog/freezing fog developed
and was seen on Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery and
obs. Over the past hour or so, more stratus has moved in from
the west. This has led to a general trend upward in visibilities
across several obs. Given the patchy nature and upward trend,
will continue to hold off on an SPS for freezing fog for now.
Otherwise, the clearing continues to move east. This is
expected to be shortlived. Even with partial clearing of low
clouds, mid and upper level clouds will be increasing this
morning ahead of the approaching low.
Temperatures today will reach the mid to upper 40s in a
southwesterly flow, about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal.
Even though moisture is limited with the approaching low, there will
be an increase in moisture in the mid levels over our area just
ahead of the front. Given the synoptic support, increased PoPs to
likely across the southern half of the area. Have slight chance PoPs
all the way north. As for ptype, this will be mainly plain rain.
Temperatures look cold enough aloft for snow, but the boundary
layer will be warm. There could be snow mixed in across the far
northern interior early Friday morning, but no accumulation is
expected with marginal surface temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level trough axis is not expected to pass through
until later Friday. This will hold off any clearing until late
Friday or Friday night and may allow for some isolated rain/snow
showers. Confidence is too low to include in the forecast for
now. High pressure starts to slowly build in behind the
departing low and the pressure gradient tightens Friday night.
This will result in around 25 mph wind gusts.
By Saturday morning we should finally see sun across the whole
area. The clear skies will last through Sunday as high pressure
remains in control. Temperatures on Saturday will be right
around normal for early February (upper 30s to low 40s) and just
a few degrees warmer for Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term starts off with an omega block over the CONUS Sunday
morning, with cut off lows over the southern Central Plains states
and the other well off the New England coast while a ridge remains
to the west of the forecast area, over the Northern Plains and Great
Lakes. Surface high pressure will remain in control across the
region Sunday through the middle of next week, keeping the area dry.
A southern stream low does track through the Gulf Coast states, and
emerges off the Florida coast during the early part of next week.
The track of this low will be dependent on the strength of the high
to the north. Currently all guidance keeps the low to the south,
with the area remaining dry into the middle of next week.
Seasonable temperatures can be expected Friday night through
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure in place through Thursday. A cold front approaches
from the northwest Thursday night, moving through Friday morning.
Despite some clearing across the forecast area, clouds are
expected to move back into the region, with ceilings near 3 kft
this morning. VFR then expected this afternoon, although some
residual low clouds possible. Ceilings decline once more this
evening ahead of an approaching front, likely lowering to MVFR
after around 06Z Friday. Potential IFR after 06Z Friday as rain
develops. The rain will affect mainly the city terminals and
KISP, with lesser chances for rain as you head north.
Light SW flow through daybreak, persisting through the day today.
Speeds increase to around 10 kt or less during the day, though
some locally higher speeds possible at KJFK. Winds shift to the
W, then NW as the cold front moves through after 09Z tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely due to uncertainty in the flight category
forecast. Conditions may be low end VFR all day until the cold
front approaches tonight with more certain MVFR conditions after
06Z Friday. IFR conditions are also possible after 06Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: MVFR or lower with -RA, in the morning, becoming VFR
after 18Z. Increasing N winds.
Saturday - Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Long period (9 to 12 seconds) easterly swells will continue through
Friday, but Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through
this time. There is then potential for some 25 kt gusts Friday
night, mainly on the ocean waters. High pressure builds in
thereafter and sub SCA conditions are expected.
Small craft conditions will again be possible on the ocean waters
late Monday night into Tuesday with a strengthening northeast flow
as low pressure passes to the south. Winds and seas Tuesday will be
dependent on the track and strength of the low. Winds diminish on
Wednesday, but seas will remain elevated on the ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into the middle of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT