000
FXUS61 KOKX 011740
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1240 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaches from the north today and will drag a cold
front through the area tonight into early Friday morning. High
pressure then gradually builds in from Southeastern Canada Friday
and remains in control into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated the forecast to increase temperatures slightly across SE CT
and eastern LI where relatively less cloud cover has been occurring.
Also lowered temps for roughly the NW half of the forecast area by a
few degrees as broken to overcast conditions have prevailed and
probably will continue to do so this afternoon - even though it may
be somewhat less cloudy there as compared to the past few hours.
The flow aloft flattens over us, ahead of an approaching shortwave.
At the surface, high pressure continues to weaken as a low
associated with the shortwave approaches from the north. This low
will drag a cold front through the area tonight into early Friday
morning. Mid and upper level clouds will be increasing this morning
ahead of the approaching low. Temperatures today will reach mostly
40-45 a southwesterly flow - a few degrees warmer than normal.
Even though moisture is limited with the approaching low, there will
be an increase in moisture in the mid levels over our area just
ahead of the front. Given the synoptic support, increased PoPs to
likely across the southern half of the area. Have slight chance PoPs
all the way north. As for ptype, this will be mainly plain rain.
Temperatures look cold enough aloft for snow, but the boundary
layer will be warm. There could be snow mixed in across the far
northern interior early Friday morning, but no accumulation is
expected with marginal surface temperatures.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper level trough axis is not expected to pass through
until later Friday. This will hold off any clearing until late
Friday or Friday night and may allow for some isolated rain/snow
showers. Confidence is too low to include in the forecast for
now. High pressure starts to slowly build in behind the
departing low and the pressure gradient tightens Friday night.
This will result in around 25 mph wind gusts.
By Saturday morning we should finally see sun across the whole
area. The clear skies will last through Sunday as high pressure
remains in control. Temperatures on Saturday will be right
around normal for early February (upper 30s to low 40s) and just
a few degrees warmer for Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term starts off with an omega block over the CONUS Sunday
morning, with cut off lows over the southern Central Plains states
and the other well off the New England coast while a ridge remains
to the west of the forecast area, over the Northern Plains and Great
Lakes. Surface high pressure will remain in control across the
region Sunday through the middle of next week, keeping the area dry.
A southern stream low does track through the Gulf Coast states, and
emerges off the Florida coast during the early part of next week.
The track of this low will be dependent on the strength of the high
to the north. Currently all guidance keeps the low to the south,
with the area remaining dry into the middle of next week.
Seasonable temperatures can be expected Friday night through
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold frontal passage occurs early Fri mrng.
Mainly VFR thru this eve. IFR/MVFR develop ahead of the front
tngt, with conditions improving gradually thru the day on Fri.
SW winds thru this eve, then flow becomes NW behind the front
aft 6-9Z. Gusts to around 20kt possible Fri aftn.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There is a chance CIGs around 3000 ft could develop at times
thru this eve.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Rest of Friday: Becoming VFR with NW winds. Gusts around 20kt
possible.
Saturday - Tuesday: Mainly VFR with N flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Long period (9 to 12 seconds) easterly swells will continue through
Friday, but Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through
this time. There is then potential for some 25 kt gusts Friday
night, mainly on the ocean waters. High pressure builds in
thereafter and sub SCA conditions are expected.
Small craft conditions will again be possible on the ocean waters
late Monday night into Tuesday with a strengthening northeast flow
as low pressure passes to the south. Winds and seas Tuesday will be
dependent on the track and strength of the low. Winds diminish on
Wednesday, but seas will remain elevated on the ocean waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into the middle of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JC/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT