000
FXUS61 KOKX 012346
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
646 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through the area late tonight into early Friday
morning. High pressure then gradually builds in from Southeastern
Canada through the weekend and remains in control into the beginning
of next week. A ocean storm then passes well to the southeast on
Tuesday, but high pressure otherwise remains in control through
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A longwave trough axis aloft shifts toward the Northeast tonight,
helping send a surface cold front through the forecast area. Mid
level moisture moves in from the west right ahead of this cold
front. The higher precip chances will be over the southern half of
the forecast area due to the timing and placement of this moisture
with the given lift. Have maintained likely PoPs across southern
zones, ranging down to a chance/slight chance PoPs across the
northernmost zones. Freezing level/wet bulb zero heights favor an
all rain event, but are marginally low enough to a chance that snow
mixes in for the northernmost zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cyclonic flow aloft remains through much of Friday as the longwave
trough axis is not expected to shift east of us until late day or
early evening. Low and mid level moisture will lessen after early
morning, but enough will linger for a chance of sprinkles and
flurries with some PVA still in place. High temperatures for Friday
mostly 40-45. The pressure gradient then tightens Friday night with
a relatively breezy period.
Surface high pressure tries to build in on Saturday, but would do so
very slowly as the longwave trough to our east will be slow to shift
farther out to sea. Mid and low levels at least will dry out such
that we`ll have plenty of sunshine during the day. Still somewhat
breezy at least for coastal areas, and high temperatures will be
close to normal in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Another sunny day is anticipated for Sunday with slight deep-level
ridging. Winds will be lighter as well, and combined with highs in
the lower to middle 40s, it won`t feel as cold.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An omega block omega/rex block over the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48
and adjacent western Atlantic will be the main driver of our weather
into next week. The eastern leg of this block will spawn an ocean
storm well to the east Sunday into Monday, while weak mid level
confluence in its wake supports weak sfc high pressure over the
Northeast. A potent cutoff low undercutting the block will spawn
another storm near the northern Gulf coast on Sunday, which should
then move east of Florida and also pass well to our southeast,
though perhaps not quite as far SE as model progs indicate. That
would allow the system to at least partially phase with the eastern
leg of the omega block out over the Atlantic, which if the GFS is
right may cause the first storm to retrograde enough to throw more
mid level moisture/clouds back into area Tue-Wed than indicated by
NBM. At any rate, stronger high pressure will be slowly building
down from ern Canada during this time and into Thu, keeping the area
dry.
Temps Mon-Tue will be closer to normal as the storm to the east
pulls down some colder air from ern Canada. Otherwise temps should
be a few degrees above normal on Sunday and again Wed-Thu.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches tonight, moving through Friday morning.
Mainly VFR thru this evening outside of a few pockets of 2500 to
3000 ft cigs. MVFR conds develop ahead of the front tonight as
rain develops toward 5Z. Likely declining to IFR several hours
after that, with only gradual improvement behind the fropa
Friday. Return to VFR toward 21Z Fri.
SW winds thru this evening, then flow becomes NW behind the
front after 09Z Fri. Gusts to around 20 kt possible Friday
afternoon and evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Possible MVFR cigs at times this evening.
LIFR conds possible Friday morning from low stratus and fog.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night: VFR with NW winds. Gusts up to 20 kt possible.
Saturday - Tuesday: Mainly VFR with N flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Long period (9 to 12 seconds) easterly swells will continue through
Friday, but Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through
this time. There is then potential for some 25 kt gusts Friday
night, mainly on the ocean waters. High pressure builds in
thereafter and sub SCA conditions are expected.
Small craft conditions will again be possible on the ocean waters
late Monday night into Tuesday with a strengthening northeast flow
as low pressure passes to the south. Winds and seas Tuesday will be
dependent on the track and strength of the low. Winds diminish on
Wednesday, but seas will remain elevated on the ocean waters.
Minimal SCA cond may be possible on the ocean waters from Mon night
into Tue night, with N-NE flow gusting up to 25 kt between an ocean
storm and weak inland high pressure, and seas up to 5 ft on the
outer waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to noon EST Saturday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG