discussion on 2024-02-02

000
FXUS61 KOKX 021631
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1131 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure then builds in from southeastern Canada through
the weekend and remains in control into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --The fcst has been updated again to account for the rain
lingering across the cwa. Lingering associated upper level
trough axis will past east later this afternoon.

Any clearing will be delayed as the upper level trough lingers.
Skies finally clear from west to east this evening into tonight.
As low pressure departs and a high over southeastern Canada
starts to build in, the pressure gradient over the area will
tighten. This will lead to some gusty conditions starting
tonight. Even though clear skies are expected, with winds
remaining up radiational cooling conditions are not ideal. Stuck
close to NBM for tonight`s lows.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Once the upper level trough shifts east, it closes and gets cut off
offshore. The associated surface low then strengthens in place about
500 miles east of the area. At the same time, high pressure from
southeastern Canada tries to build in slowly. This will be the
overall pattern the whole short term period. This will bring a
persistent N/NW flow to the area.

Sun returns to the area and skies are expected to stay mostly clear
through the period. NBM was mainly used for highs, upper 30s to
mid 40s forecast both days. With winds decreasing slightly from
Friday night, did blend in some CONSMOS for lows Saturday and
Sunday night to get mainly low to mid 20s, with low 30s in the
NYC/NJ metro area. Did not want to go as low as the CONSMOS
with the potential for the wind forecast to change with a shift
in the tighter pressure gradient.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term starts off with an omega block over the CONUS Sunday
morning, with cut off lows over northwestern Atlantic Ocean and the
other well coming onshore of the West Coast while a ridge remains to
the west of the forecast area, over the Northern Plains and Great
Lakes. Surface high pressure will remain in control across the
region Sunday through the middle of next week, keeping the area dry.
A southern stream low does track through the Gulf Coast states, and
emerges off the Florida coast during the early part of next week.
Currently all guidance keeps the low to the south, with the area
remaining dry into the middle of next week. Another omega block sets
up across the country as this southern stream storm ejects off the
Southeast Coast late Monday night into Tuesday. Persistence
forecasting of dry conditions continues as the upper level ridge to
our west makes slow progress toward our region toward the end of
next week.

Seasonable temperatures can be expected Monday through Wednesday. As
the upper level ridge approaches, warmer conditions are expected for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front moves through the region today. High pressure
builds in this evening.

Update to include precipitation in the TAFs this morning from
14-18z. Any leftover VFR conditions will transition to MVFR as
showers associated with a cold front approaches. There is a
chance that some cigs could fall to IFR, and will include a
TEMPO for this. A return to VFR is expected around 21Z, but
there is some uncertainty in the actual timing, with a return to
VFR +/- 2 hours from the forecast.

Light SW flow around 5 kt will shift N to NW behind the front
around mid morning. Gusts to around 20 kt possible this
afternoon into Saturday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to uncertainty in changing flight
categories. Return to VFR this afternoon may be off by +/- 2
hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday - Tuesday: Mainly VFR with N flow. Gusts 15-20 kt on
Saturday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The long period E/NE swell will continue through the day, but
weaken. Sub-SCA conditions are expected.

Wind gusts pick up tonight and a SCA is in effect for the ocean
waters for 25 kt wind gusts. The SCA is set to expire late Saturday
morning. Thereafter through Sunday night, high pressure will be in
control and sub-SCA conditions are expected.

Minimal SCA cond may be possible on the ocean waters from Mon night
into Tue night, with N-NE flow gusting up to 25 kt between an ocean
storm and weak inland high pressure, and seas up to 5 ft on the
outer waters. Winds diminish on Wednesday, but seas will remain
elevated on the ocean waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$