000
FXUS61 KOKX 022004
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
304 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the
weekend and remains in control into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Mid lvl shrtwv was passing S of the cwa this aftn. As a result,
pcpn was ending from N to S. Have continued with a mention of
sprinkles for srn areas for the next few hours.

For tngt, nly flow from the mountains could allow for a flurry
or sprinkle to reach the local area. However, with subsidence
and downslope, have kept the fcst dry despite the current look
on radar, anticipating a drying trend.

N winds should keep some llvl mixing in place overnight. As a
result, the NBM with the usual local adjustments was used for
temps. Colder than it has been with most places dropping into
the 20s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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High pres over Canada will build towards the region thru Sat
ngt. The ridge axis however will remain W of the region, with
low pres remaining invof the Maritimes. This will set up a nly
flow that will draw cool air into the region thru the period.
Nothing extreme, with the GFS keeping h85 in the -5 to -9C
range. This yields highs close to normal. Low temps not too far
from normal as well, but coastal areas may end up a few degrees
warmer than climo due to the mixing N winds. The NBM with minor
adjustments was used thru the period.

Subsidence, along with a lack of moisture advection, should
allow for partly cloudy skies thru the period.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Quiet weather for the long term. Ridge axis aloft remains to our
west through Wednesday night, then finally shifts through the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will be in control of our weather and provide us with dry
conditions through at least Thursday. Little in the way of clouds as
well through at least Wednesday before perhaps filtered sunshine on
Thursday.

Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes on Friday and is progged
to eventually pass well to our north. Between a leading warm front
and a weakening trailing cold front, we may see some showers from
this, but these would probably hold off until Friday night.

Seasonable temperatures can be expected through Wednesday. Milder
temperatures then follow for Thursday and Friday as highs range
mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s both days.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds into the region through the TAF period.

Conditions are generally VFR or MVFR with a few isolated
locations still IFR. Conditions will continue to improve to VFR this
evening and once we do, we should remain VFR through the period.

Winds will be from the north around 10kt with gusts between
15-20kt. Gusts may be occasional from time to time.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to uncertainty in changing flight
categories. Return to VFR this afternoon may be off by +/- 2
hours. Gusts may be occasional.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday afternoon - Wednesday: Mainly VFR with N flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Increasing nly winds tngt. A sca remains in effect for the
ocean. Winds decrease on Sat, with all waters expected to remain
blw sca criteria attm.

Sub-advisory conditions then continue on all waters for Sunday
through the end of the forecast period. The only exception would be
on the ocean waters from Monday night through Wednesday when an
easterly swell might contribute to wave heights up to 5 feet.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC