000
FXUS61 KOKX 022332
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
632 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the
weekend and remains in control through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The forecast has been updated to extend the time of possible
sprinkles and flurries for a few more hours.

For tngt, nly flow from the mountains could allow for a flurry
or sprinkle to reach the local area. However, with subsidence
and downslope, have kept the fcst dry despite the current look
on radar, anticipating a drying trend.

N winds should keep some llvl mixing in place overnight. As a
result, the NBM with the usual local adjustments was used for
temps. Colder than it has been with most places dropping into
the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pres over Canada will build towards the region thru Sat
ngt. The ridge axis however will remain W of the region, with
low pres remaining invof the Maritimes. This will set up a nly
flow that will draw cool air into the region thru the period.
Nothing extreme, with the GFS keeping h85 in the -5 to -9C
range. This yields highs close to normal. Low temps not too far
from normal as well, but coastal areas may end up a few degrees
warmer than climo due to the mixing N winds. The NBM with minor
adjustments was used thru the period.

Subsidence, along with a lack of moisture advection, should
allow for partly cloudy skies thru the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quiet weather for the long term. Ridge axis aloft remains to our
west through Wednesday night, then finally shifts through the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will be in control of our weather and provide us with dry
conditions through at least Thursday. Little in the way of clouds as
well through at least Wednesday before perhaps filtered sunshine on
Thursday.

Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes on Friday and is progged
to eventually pass well to our north. Between a leading warm front
and a weakening trailing cold front, we may see some showers from
this, but these would probably hold off until Friday night.

Seasonable temperatures can be expected through Wednesday. Milder
temperatures then follow for Thursday and Friday as highs range
mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s both days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds into the region through Saturday morning,
and remains centered west of the region through Saturday night.

VFR.

North winds remain around 10 kt or less. An occasional gust up
to 20 kt is possible through 03Z. Gusts develop again Saturday
morning, up to 20 kt, and will be diminishing through the
afternoon before ending late in the day.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

Occasional gusts up to 20 kt are possible through 03Z.

Gusts develop Saturday morning, up to 20 kt, and diminish
during the afternoon, ending around 20Z.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night - Wednesday: Mainly VFR with N flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing nly winds tngt. A sca remains in effect for the
ocean. Winds decrease on Sat, with all waters expected to remain
blw sca criteria attm.

Sub-advisory conditions then continue on all waters for Sunday
through the end of the forecast period. The only exception would be
on the ocean waters from Monday night through Wednesday when an
easterly swell might contribute to wave heights up to 5 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC