000
FXUS61 KOKX 030523
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1223 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the
weekend and remains in control through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Updated for current conditions. Any sprinkles or flurries will
be widely scattered and mainly across New London County as the
upper trough moves off shore. With radar showing little activity
in the forecast area will leave mention out of the forecast.
N winds should keep some llvl mixing in place overnight. As a
result, the NBM with the usual local adjustments was used for
temps. Colder than it has been with most places dropping into
the 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
High pres over Canada will build towards the region thru Sat
ngt. The ridge axis however will remain W of the region, with
low pres remaining invof the Maritimes. This will set up a nly
flow that will draw cool air into the region thru the period.
Nothing extreme, with the GFS keeping h85 in the -5 to -9C
range. This yields highs close to normal. Low temps not too far
from normal as well, but coastal areas may end up a few degrees
warmer than climo due to the mixing N winds. The NBM with minor
adjustments was used thru the period.
Subsidence, along with a lack of moisture advection, should
allow for partly cloudy skies thru the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quiet weather for the long term. Ridge axis aloft remains to our
west through Wednesday night, then finally shifts through the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will be in control of our weather and provide us with dry
conditions through at least Thursday. Little in the way of clouds as
well through at least Wednesday before perhaps filtered sunshine on
Thursday.
Low pressure moves through the Great Lakes on Friday and is progged
to eventually pass well to our north. Between a leading warm front
and a weakening trailing cold front, we may see some showers from
this, but these would probably hold off until Friday night.
Seasonable temperatures can be expected through Wednesday. Milder
temperatures then follow for Thursday and Friday as highs range
mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s both days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds into the region through Saturday morning, and
remains centered west of the region through Saturday night.
VFR.
North winds remain around 10 kt or less. Occasional gusts to around
20 kt are possible through 09Z. Frequent gusts develop Saturday
morning, up to 20 kt, and will be diminishing through the afternoon
before ending late in the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
Gusts develop Saturday morning, up to 20 kt, and diminish during the
afternoon, ending around 21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Late Saturday night - Wednesday: VFR with a light N flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to the winds and seas at this time. A SCA remains in
effect on the ocean waters with an increasing nly flow tngt.
Winds decrease on Sat, with all waters expected to remain blw
sca criteria attm.
Sub-advisory conditions then continue on all waters for Sunday
through the end of the forecast period. The only exception would be
on the ocean waters from Monday night through Wednesday when an
easterly swell might contribute to wave heights up to 5 feet.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC