000
FXUS61 KOKX 030815
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
315 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the
weekend and remains in control through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry weather expected for today as surface high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes builds into the region, while a cutoff low
remains nearly station near the Canadian Maritimes. An upper level
ridge, with its ridge axis stretching from southern Canada,
southeastward into the Southeast US, also remains nearly stationary.
Temperatures today will be near normal as cold advection brings in
slightly cooler temperatures as compared to Friday, with highs in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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An omega type pattern sets up over the CONUS through
Monday night with the aforementioned ridge remaining nearly
stationary over southern Canada and the mid-West, except its
orientations shifts from northwest/southeast to northeast/southwest.
The cut-off low over the Canadian Maritimes remains nearby as a
trough digs off the West Coast. Also during this timeframe, low
pressure dives out of the southern Rockies and undercuts the omega
block, heading east-southeast along the Gulf Coast, pushing off the
Southeast Coast Monday night. This will mean surface high pressure
remains over the region through Monday night. Subsidence associated
with the high along with a lack of moisture advection, should allow
for mostly clear skies thru the period.
This pattern will set up a northerly flow that will draw cool air
into the region through the period. Nothing extreme, with the
GFS keeping h85 in the -5 to -9 C range yielding highs close to
normal. Low temperatures will not too far from normal as well,
but coastal areas may end up a few degrees warmer than
climatology due to the mixing northerly winds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A quiet long term period is expected, with dry conditions until the
end of the week. High pressure will remain in control, becoming
centered over the area Thursday and shifting offshore early Friday
as low pressure approaches from the west. Aloft, a ridge builds over
the east coast, with the axis shifting east early Friday.
High pressure will result in dry and mostly sunny conditions. There
will be surface low strengthening well offshore and some clouds
associated with this low could move over the area. Stuck with NBM
for now, but sky cover could trend up, especially over eastern
portions of the area. Any precip with this low will remain offshore.
Aforementioned late week low pressure will track well to our north
and west over the Great Lakes, but could bring some rain to the area
later Friday into the weekend. Capped at slight chance for now.
Given the mild airmass and track, mixed ptype is not a concern at
this time.
There will be a warming trend Tuesday through Friday in high
temperatures. Continued with previous forecast and went slightly
higher than NBM, especially Friday when there will be a deep SW/W
flow. Highs in the low to mid 50s currently forecast. For lows,
blended in some CONSMOS Tuesday and Wednesday night to lower temps a
bit. Lows will trend up or down over the next few forecasts based on
what trends there are in sky cover and pressure gradient with the
storm well offshore.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure builds into the region through this morning, and
remains centered west of the region through tonight.
VFR.
North winds remain around 10 kt or less. Occasional gusts to around
20 kt are possible through 09Z. Frequent gusts develop this
morning, up to 20 kt, and will be diminishing through the
afternoon before ending late in the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
Gusts develop Saturday morning, up to 20 kt, and diminish during the
afternoon, ending around 21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Late Saturday night - Wednesday: VFR with a light N flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters with a strong
northerly which will diminish to below 25 kt by late this
morning into the early afternoon.
Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions are expected on all non-ocean
waters with high pressure in control. However, across the ocean,
strengthening low pressure about 500 miles offshore will
continue to bring a long period easterly swell with waves 4 to 5
feet beginning late Monday night and potentially through
Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT