000
FXUS61 KOKX 031757
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1257 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the
weekend and remains in control through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast remains on track. Just minor updates to temps and
dewpts to better reflect current conditions.
Dry weather expected for today as surface high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes builds into the region, while a cutoff low
remains nearly station near the Canadian Maritimes. An upper level
ridge, with its ridge axis stretching from southern Canada,
southeastward into the Southeast US, also remains nearly stationary.
Temperatures today will be near normal as cold advection brings in
slightly cooler temperatures as compared to Friday, with highs in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An omega type pattern sets up over the CONUS through
Monday night with the aforementioned ridge remaining nearly
stationary over southern Canada and the mid-West, except its
orientations shifts from northwest/southeast to northeast/southwest.
The cut-off low over the Canadian Maritimes remains nearby as a
trough digs off the West Coast. Also during this timeframe, low
pressure dives out of the southern Rockies and undercuts the omega
block, heading east-southeast along the Gulf Coast, pushing off the
Southeast Coast Monday night. This will mean surface high pressure
remains over the region through Monday night. Subsidence associated
with the high along with a lack of moisture advection, should allow
for mostly clear skies thru the period.
This pattern will set up a northerly flow that will draw cool air
into the region through the period. Nothing extreme, with the
GFS keeping h85 in the -5 to -9 C range yielding highs close to
normal. Low temperatures will not too far from normal as well,
but coastal areas may end up a few degrees warmer than
climatology due to the mixing northerly winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A quiet long term period is expected, with dry conditions until the
end of the week. High pressure will remain in control, becoming
centered over the area Thursday and shifting offshore early Friday
as low pressure approaches from the west. Aloft, a ridge builds over
the east coast, with the axis shifting east early Friday.
High pressure will result in dry and mostly sunny conditions. There
will be a surface low strengthening well offshore, followed by
another offshore low pressure system, and some clouds
associated with this low could move over the area. Stuck with
NBM for now, but sky cover could trend up, especially over
eastern portions of the area. Any precip with this low will
remain offshore.
Aforementioned late week low pressure will track well to our north
and west over the Great Lakes, but could bring some rain to the area
later Friday into the weekend. Capped at slight chance for now.
Given the mild airmass and track, mixed ptype is not a concern at
this time.
There will be a warming trend Tuesday through Friday in high
temperatures. Continued with previous forecast and went slightly
higher than NBM, especially Friday when there will be a deep SW/W
flow. Highs in the low to mid 50s currently forecast. For lows,
blended in some CONSMOS Tuesday and Wednesday night to lower temps a
bit. Lows will trend up or down over the next few forecasts based on
what trends there are in sky cover and pressure gradient with the
storm well offshore.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered west of the area through
tonight.
VFR.
Winds will remain from the north through the TAF period. Gusts
up to 20 kt can be expected through around 21z. Gusts then
diminish and winds will remain around 10kt through tonight and
Sunday. Winds on Sunday become a bit more northwesterly.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
Timing of wind gusts may be off by an hour or two.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night - Wednesday: VFR with a light N flow.
Thursday: VFR. Light N flow becomes more NW-W.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect on the ocean waters with a strong
northerly which will diminish to below 25 kt by late this
morning into the early afternoon.
Thereafter, sub-SCA conditions are expected on all non-ocean
waters with high pressure in control. However, across the ocean,
another low pressure system passing well offshore will continue
to bring a long period easterly swell with waves 4 to 5 feet
beginning late Monday night and potentially through Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT