000
FXUS61 KOKX 032054
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the
weekend and remains in control through midweek. This high
pressure area eventually shifts southeast of the region and
offshore Thursday into Friday. By late week, a frontal system
approaches from the west, with an associated cold front
approaching Friday night and moving across on Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Dry weather continues tonight as high pressure builds across the
region. Northerly breeze is expected to diminish by this evening as
the low level flow weakens. Clear skies and light winds will result
in a good radiational cooling night with temperatures dropping into
the 20s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Quiet weather continues through Monday as the region will remain
under a weak high pressure.

Sunday and Monday will both feature mainly sunny skies with highs
mostly in the low to mid 40s. Overnight lows Sunday night should be
mostly in the low to mid 20s except across the NYC Metro Area where
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Dry conditions continue through much of the week. Temperatures
exhibit an overall warming trend. No significant low pressure area
look to impact the region during the long term.

Synoptic pattern shows local region on the western side of a mid
level trough Monday night through Wednesday. The pattern then shifts
to mid level ridging Wednesday night through Thursday night. The
area will be on the Backside of the mid level ridge Friday into
Friday night with a trough moving in from the west, which appears to
flatten going into next weekend.

At the surface, high pressure from SE Canada will build along the
Northeastern Seaboard Monday night through Wednesday night. The
center of this high pressure area traverses the local area Thursday
and then shifts southeast of the region out in the Atlantic
thereafter through Friday. An area of low pressure approaches the
region from the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. The low goes into
SE Canada next weekend.

The associated cold front approaches Friday night and moves across
Saturday. For Friday night into next weekend, there is forecast
possible precipitation. Multiple shortwaves are moving across during
this timeframe but the larger scale trough pattern flattens out
during this time period. Surface temperatures and low levels are
forecast to stay above freezing for this time period, keeping
precipitation as rain. POPs are less than 30 percent as the frontal
system will have limited moisture.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure remains centered west of the area through tonight.

VFR.

Winds will remain from the north through the TAF period. Gusts
up to 20 kt can be expected through around 21z-23z. Gusts then
diminish and winds will remain around 10kt through tonight and
Sunday. Winds on Sunday become a bit more northwesterly.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

Timing of wind gusts may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night - Wednesday: VFR with a light N flow.
Thursday: VFR. Light N flow becomes more NW-W.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all non-ocean waters with
high pressure in control. Monday night through Wednesday, ocean
zones are forecast to have probable SCA conditions. Non-ocean
waters are forecast to remain below SCA conditions. For
Wednesday night through Thursday night, mainly sub-SCA
conditions are forecast across all waters but some ocean SCA
level seas may remain.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$