000
FXUS61 KOKX 040059
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
759 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the
weekend and remains in control through midweek. This high
pressure area eventually shifts southeast of the region and
offshore Thursday into Friday. By late week, a frontal system
approaches from the west, with an associated cold front
approaching Friday night and moving across on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Increased clouds and slightly adjusted temperatures as well as
dewpoints to better match with observed trends. Otherwise,
forecast mainly on track. Kept the min temperatures overnight
into early Sunday the same as previous forecast.
Dry weather continues tonight as high pressure gradually builds
across the region. Northerly breeze is expected to diminish as
the low level flow weakens. While clouds will be scattered to
broken this evening, the cloud coverage is still expected to
decrease late tonight. This will lead to eventually clear skies
late. Coupled with light winds, this will result in good
radiational cooling with temperatures dropping into the 20s for
much of the area but close to 30 for NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quiet weather continues through Monday as the region will remain
under a weak high pressure.
Sunday and Monday will both feature mainly sunny skies with highs
mostly in the low to mid 40s. Overnight lows Sunday night should be
mostly in the low to mid 20s except across the NYC Metro Area where
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Dry conditions continue through much of the week. Temperatures
exhibit an overall warming trend and stay above normal much of
the long term. The numerical weather prediction models depict
an upper level jet pattern keeping the highest upper jet winds
well south of the region for much of the long term. At the
surface, the models convey no significant low pressure areas to
impact the region during the long term.
Synoptic pattern shows local region on the western side of a mid
level trough Monday night through Wednesday. The pattern then shifts
to mid level ridging Wednesday night through Thursday night. The
area will be on the backside of the mid level ridge Friday into
Friday night with a trough moving in from the west, which
appears to flatten going into next weekend.
At the surface, high pressure from SE Canada will build along the
Northeastern Seaboard Monday night through Wednesday night. The
center of this high pressure area traverses the local area Thursday
and then shifts southeast of the region out in the Atlantic
thereafter through Friday. An area of low pressure approaches the
region from the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. The central
low goes into SE Canada next weekend.
The associated cold front approaches Friday night and moves across
Saturday. For Friday night into next weekend, there is forecast
possible precipitation. Multiple shortwaves are moving across during
this timeframe but the larger scale trough pattern flattens out
during this time period. Surface temperatures and low levels are
forecast to stay above freezing for this time period, keeping
precipitation as rain showers. POPs are less than 30 percent as
the frontal system will have limited moisture.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains centered west to northwest of the area through
Sunday.
VFR.
A light N flow backs to NNW to NW around midday Sunday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday Night - Wednesday: VFR with a light N flow.
Thursday: VFR. Light N flow becomes NW-W, then S late in the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all non-ocean waters with
high pressure in control through the remainder of this weekend
and through Monday. For Monday night through Wednesday, ocean
zones are forecast to have SCA conditions. Non-ocean waters are
forecast to remain below SCA conditions. For Wednesday night
through Thursday night, mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast
across all waters but some ocean SCA level seas may remain.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20/JM
NEAR TERM...20/JM
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...20/JM
HYDROLOGY...20/JM