discussion on 2024-02-03

000
FXUS61 KOKX 040243
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
943 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the
weekend and remains in control through midweek. This high
pressure area eventually shifts southeast of the region and
offshore Thursday into Friday. By late week, a frontal system
approaches from the west, with an associated cold front
approaching Friday night and moving across on Saturday.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Mid and high clouds continue to move through the region as seen
from observations and satellite imagery with the area slowly
dissipating and moving to the south. Otherwise, updated for
current conditions.

Kept the min temperatures overnight into early Sunday the same
as previous forecast.

Dry weather continues tonight as high pressure gradually builds
across the region. Northerly breeze is expected to diminish as
the low level flow weakens. While clouds will be scattered to
broken this evening, the cloud coverage is still expected to
decrease late tonight. This will lead to eventually clear skies
late. Coupled with light winds, this will result in good
radiational cooling with temperatures dropping into the 20s for
much of the area but close to 30 for NYC.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quiet weather continues through Monday as the region will remain
under a weak high pressure.

Sunday and Monday will both feature mainly sunny skies with highs
mostly in the low to mid 40s. Overnight lows Sunday night should be
mostly in the low to mid 20s except across the NYC Metro Area where
temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Dry conditions continue through much of the week. Temperatures
exhibit an overall warming trend and stay above normal much of
the long term. The numerical weather prediction models depict an
upper level jet pattern keeping the highest upper jet winds
well south of the region for much of the long term. At the
surface, the models convey no significant low pressure areas to
impact the region during the long term.

Synoptic pattern shows local region on the western side of a
mid level trough Monday night through Wednesday. The pattern
then shifts to mid level ridging Wednesday night through
Thursday night. The area will be on the backside of the mid
level ridge Friday into Friday night with a trough moving in
from the west, which appears to flatten going into next weekend.

At the surface, high pressure from SE Canada will build along
the Northeastern Seaboard Monday night through Wednesday night.
The center of this high pressure area traverses the local area
Thursday and then shifts southeast of the region out in the
Atlantic thereafter through Friday. An area of low pressure
approaches the region from the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday.
The central low goes into SE Canada next weekend.

The associated cold front approaches Friday night and moves
across Saturday. For Friday night into next weekend, there is
forecast possible precipitation. Multiple shortwaves are moving
across during this timeframe but the larger scale trough pattern
flattens out during this time period. Surface temperatures and
low levels are forecast to stay above freezing for this time
period, keeping precipitation as rain showers. POPs are less
than 30 percent as the frontal system will have limited
moisture.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure remains centered west to northwest of the area through
Sunday night.

VFR.

A light N flow backs to NNW to NW around midday Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night - Wednesday: VFR with a light N flow.

Thursday: VFR. Light N flow becomes NW-W, then S late in the day.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Wind gusts on the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet have
been near 25 kt this evening, however, this is expected to be
short-lived and marginally at SCA levels, so will not issue a
short fused advisory.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all non-ocean waters with
high pressure in control through the remainder of this weekend
and through Monday. For Monday night through Wednesday, ocean
zones are forecast to have SCA conditions. Non-ocean waters are
forecast to remain below SCA conditions. For Wednesday night
through Thursday night, mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast
across all waters but some ocean SCA level seas may remain.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

SYNOPSIS...20/JM
NEAR TERM...20/JM/MET
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...20/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...20/JM