000
FXUS61 KOKX 041452
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
952 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through the middle of next
week. High pressure shifts offshore Thursday into Friday. By
late week, low pressure approaches from the west and will drag
its associated fronts through the area Friday into the start of
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track with just a few minor adjustments to
reflect current observations.
Otherwise, dry weather continues for today as surface high
pressure centered over the Upper Mid-West/western Great Lakes
region builds into the region, while a cutoff low remains nearly
station near the Canadian Maritimes. An upper level ridge, with
its ridge axis stretching from south central Canada,
southeastward into the Southeast US, also remains nearly
stationary.
With little change in air mass, temperatures today will
continue to be near normal with highs in the upper 30s to lower
40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An omega type pattern will be in place over the CONUS through
Tuesday night with the aforementioned ridge over south central
Canada and the mid-West slowly moving east and its orientation
shifting from northwest/southeast to northeast/southwest. The
cut-off low over the Canadian Maritimes remains nearby through
Monday night then dissipates into Tuesday as a trough digs off
the West Coast and moving onshore and trekking into the
southwest US. Also during this timeframe, low pressure dives
out of the southern Rockies and undercuts the omega block,
heading east-southeast along the Gulf Coast, pushing off the
Southeast Coast Monday night and continuing eastward into the
Atlantic into Tuesday night. This will mean surface high
pressure remains over the region through Tuesday night.
Subsidence associated with the high along with a lack of
moisture advection, should allow for mostly clear skies thru
the period.
This pattern will set up a northerly flow that will draw cool air
into the region through the period, with temperatures ending up
near seasonal norms.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Offshore low pressure finally moves east on Wednesday and high
pressure that has been centered to our west moves over our area
through Thursday. Aloft, a ridge builds in over the east coast. This
will result in dry conditions Wednesday through daytime Friday, with
a warming trend.
The upper level ridge axis and surface high pressure shift offshore
on Friday ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the west.
This low will track well to the northwest over the Great Lakes, but
drag associated fronts through the area. The system overall does not
look impressive and will be weakening as it approaches aloft and at
the surface. Slight chance PoPs start Friday night, with chances
continuing through Saturday. Given the mild airmass and track, mixed
ptype is not an issue at this time and all plain rain is expected.
QPF also continues to look very light. NBM probabilities of 0.25
inches or more of rain are only around 40 to 50 percent at this time.
As mentioned before, the long term period will feature a warming
trend. Highs on Wednesday start off in the low to mid 40s. With a
ridge building over the area and the flow becoming southwesterly,
highs by Friday will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, with widespread
mid 50s on Saturday. The exception here will be eastern Long Island
and southeast CT with a cool flow off the water. For lows, used
mainly NBM except for Wednesday night where CONSMOS was blended in
to capture a decent radiational cooling night.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered to our north and west through
tonight.
VFR.
N to NW flow around 10 knots, gusting to 15 to 20 knots through
this afternon, then becoming light N around 00Z Monday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late tonight - Wednesday: VFR with a light N flow.
Thursday: VFR. Light N flow becomes NW-W, then S late in the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all non-ocean waters with
high pressure in control through through Monday night. Waves
build to 3 to 5 ft on the ocean waters by late Monday night and
continue into Tuesday night.
Easterly swells will begin to impact the ocean waters and the
south shore bays (in the form of rough conditions around the
inlets) today due to strong low pressure over the Canadian
Maritimes. These swells could affect the waters through Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$