000
FXUS61 KOKX 050529
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through the middle of next
week. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday night
into Thursday. This high pressure area eventually shifts
southeast of the region and offshore Thursday night into Friday.
A frontal system approaches from the west Friday into Friday
night with a cold front moving across Saturday. This cold front
exits the area Saturday night with low pressure lingering near
the Canadian Maritimes for Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Only minor changes were made for current conditions.
Forecast mainly on track. Blended in the MET and MAV guidance
with NBM for forecast lows tonight to give a more vast range in
lows in anticipation of efficient radiational cooling.
High pressure over the region tonight. This will allow skies to
remain clear and winds will remain relatively light. The
combination of the clear skies and light northerly winds will
allow for good radiational cooling as temperatures fall mainly
into the 20s across much of the region with the NYC region in
the lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The synoptic pattern through the short term shows local area on
the western side of a mid level trough Monday night through
Wednesday. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure from SE
Canada will build along the Northeastern Seaboard.
Low pressure associated with the upper trough will pass south
and then west of the area through midweek. While this low will
not directly impact the region, it will help to keep the flow
out of the north most of the short term period and could
increase cloud across the eastern part of the area on Wednesday
as it passes east.
Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies Monday through Wednesday.
A north flow will keep temperatures at or slightly below normal
for this time of year. Expect highs to range from the upper 30s
to the middle 40s. Lows fall into the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions continue through Friday. Temperatures exhibit an
overall warming trend midweek into the start of the weekend.
Temperatures remain above normal. Relatively colder night
expected Wednesday night with efficient radiational cooling
expected. Wednesday night lows utilized a blend of NBM and MEX
guidance. Otherwise, NBM temperatures were used for the rest of
the long term.
From various numerical weather prediction large scale models,
it appears no significant low pressure areas impact the region
during the long term.
Synoptic pattern shows local region on the western side of a
mid level trough initially Wednesday night. The pattern then
shifts to mid level ridging Wednesday night through early
Friday. The area will be on the backside of the mid level ridge
Friday into Friday night with a trough moving in from the west,
which appears to flatten going into next weekend. Embedded
within the transition to zonal flow will be smaller scale
shortwaves that move across for next weekend.
At the surface, high pressure from SE Canada will continue
building in Wednesday night into Thursday. This high pressure
area shifts southeast of the region out in the Atlantic
thereafter through Friday. An area of low pressure approaches
the region from the Great Lakes Saturday. The low weakens and
moves within SE Canada Saturday night into Sunday. The low moves
near the Canadian Maritimes Sunday.
An associated cold front approaches late Friday night and moves
across Saturday. The cold front exits the area Saturday night.
For Friday night into next weekend there will be chances for
precipitation. With a warm enough boundary layer well above
freezing much of the time, the precipitation will be mainly in
the form of rain showers. However, with limited moisture
content, not much rainfall is expected. POPs are less than 30
percent.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered to our north and west through Monday
night.
VFR.
Overnight the flow remains light northerly to light and
variable. The flow becomes NNW and increases Monday morning,
then veers to a north flow Monday night.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Monday night - Wednesday: VFR with a light N flow.
Thursday - Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and gusts on the ocean waters were lowered a couple of
knots to reflect current conditions.
Despite long period easterly swell on the ocean as shown in
recent buoy data, the waves are expected to remain less than 5
feet and thus less than SCA criteria tonight. For the ocean,
forecast seas mainly remain below SCA criteria Monday through
Monday night.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all non-ocean waters with
high pressure in control through through Monday night. Seas
start to build to 4 to 5 ft on the ocean waters on Tuesday, with
SCA headlines likely needed by midday Tuesday.
Easterly swells will impact the ocean waters and the south shore
bays (in the form of rough conditions around the inlets) tonight due
to strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes.
SCA conditions linger on the ocean waters Wednesday night through
Friday night mainly due to higher seas. For non-ocean waters, below
SCA conditions are expected. For Friday into Friday night, wind
gusts are forecast near 20 kt so there is a possibility for SCA
level wind gusts on much of the forecast waters this timeframe
if wind gusts trend higher in subsequent forecasts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...BC/JM/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JM/JT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM