000
FXUS61 KOKX 051139
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
639 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds in from the north and west through the
middle of the week. This high pressure area eventually shifts
southeast of the region and offshore Thursday night into Friday. A
frontal system approaches from the west Friday into Friday night
with a cold front moving across Saturday. This cold front exits
the area Saturday night with low pressure lingering near the
Canadian Maritimes for Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than forecast
right now due to winds remaining up. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track this morning with clear and dry conditions.
High pressure continues to slowly build in from the north and west
while strong low pressure spins in place well offshore before
heading farther east this evening. This surface pattern will result
in a prolonged period of a dry northerly flow. Aloft, we remain on
the western side of an upper level trough.
Sunny skies are expected again today, with highs in the low to mid
40s, a few degrees above normal for early February.
Tonight, an embedded shortwave in the aforementioned upper level
trough moves overhead. The only affect this will have on the weather
is the potential for some clouds, mainly over the eastern half of
the area. Have continued the upward trend in sky cover. With winds
remaining around 10 mph, and the chance for some sky cover,
stuck with the NBM for tonight`s lows vs the colder MOS
guidance. Lows will be in the low to upper 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Aforementioned offshore low pressure continues to head east Tuesday
morning and the pressure gradient relaxes a bit as high pressure
continues to build in from the north and west. Another strong low
will pass well offshore to our south and east late Tuesday into
early Wednesday, which may tighten up the pressure gradient again
just a bit. This will have no significant impact and winds will be
similar to Monday. The upper level trough departs on Wednesday and a
ridge starts to builds over the east coast.
Some clouds associated with the offshore lows may stick around
through early Wednesday, mainly for eastern areas. However, any
associated precip is expected to stay offshore. Highs on Tuesday
will be a few degrees cooler than Monday, but then a warming trend
starts on Wednesday that will continue through Saturday. Highs
Wednesday will be similar to Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term period. Followed the NBM
closely.
Dry conditions will persist Thursday through Friday with high
pressure over the area gradually shifting offshore into Friday. A
frontal system approaches the area on Friday with a warm font moving
through Friday night followed by a cold frontal passage sometime
late Saturday or Saturday night. Much of the forcing appears to
maximize to the north of the area, closer to the parent low over the
Great Lakes. As such, only a slight chance to low chance of showers
exist with the warm frontal passage on Friday night and the cold
frontal passage on Saturday or Saturday night. Beyond Saturday, a
low pressure may develop offshore over the Canadian Maritimes with
another potential piece of energy approaching the area from the
southwest.
Southerly flow ahead of the frontal system on Friday and then on
Saturday will allow temperatures to be on a general warming trend.
Highs Thursday will be slightly above average with highs in the
middle to upper 40s. Highs Friday rise into the upper 40s to low 50s
and highs on Saturday will be in the low to middle 50s. Some
localized spots may be in the upper 50s as the area will be in the
warm sector of the frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains centered to our north and west through tonight.
VFR. Coastal locations, mainly KISP, KBDR, KGON may see some
low stratus develop after 6Z tonight but should remain FEW to
SCT.
Light northerly wind becomes NNW and increases this morning to
10-15 kt then veers back to the N tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday - Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Coastal locations may have
low stratus with MVFR TUesday night and into early Wednesday
morning.
Wednesday - Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Long period easterly swells from offshore low pressure will continue
through at least tonight and possible into Tuesday. This will
create rough conditions around inlets. However, sub-SCA
conditions are expected through then with waves remaining around
3 to 4 ft over the ocean. Waves look to potentially reach 5 ft
by late Tuesday and remain at 4 to 5 ft thereafter. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed. Wind gusts remain below 25 kt
through the forecast.
SCA conditions linger on the ocean waters Thursday through
Friday night mainly due to higher seas. For non-ocean waters,
below SCA conditions are expected. For Friday into Friday night,
wind gusts are forecast near 20 kt so there is a possibility
for SCA level wind gusts on much of the forecast waters this
timeframe if wind gusts trend higher in subsequent forecasts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A prolonged period of easterly long period swells from two offshore
low pressure systems combined with increasing astronomical tides due
to a new moon on Friday, will bring the potential for minor coastal
flooding this week beginning tonight. Coastal flooding tonight looks
marginal as a few spots may come close to briefly touching minor
thresholds but have decided to hold off on any headlines for now. If
confidence increases in minor coastal flooding for tonight, a
Coastal Flood Statement may be needed.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...