000
FXUS61 KOKX 051729
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1229 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build from the north and west into
Thursday, then shift to the southeast and pass offshore Thursday
night into Friday. A frontal system will approach from the west
Friday into Friday night, with a cold front moving across on
Saturday. This cold front will exit the area Saturday night,
with low pressure lingering near the Canadian Maritimes on
Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tweaked fcst slightly, mostly to trend from 13Z obs.
High pressure continues to slowly build in from the north and
west while strong low pressure spins in place well offshore
before heading farther east this evening. This surface pattern
will result in a prolonged period of a dry northerly flow.
Aloft, we remain on the western side of an upper level trough.
Sunny skies are expected again today, with high temps mostly in
the lower/mid 40s, a few degrees above normal for early
February.
Tonight, an embedded shortwave in the aforementioned upper level
trough moves overhead. The only affect this will have on the
weather is the potential for some clouds, mainly over the
eastern half of the area. Have continued the upward trend in sky
cover. With winds remaining around 10 mph, and the chance for
some sky cover, stuck with the NBM for tonight`s lows vs the
colder MOS guidance. Lows will be from near 30 in NYC, to the
20s elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Aforementioned offshore low pressure continues to head east
Tuesday morning and the pressure gradient relaxes a bit as
high pressure continues to build in from the north and west.
Another strong low will pass well offshore to our south and east
late Tuesday into early Wednesday, which may tighten up the
pressure gradient again just a bit. This will have no
significant impact and winds will be similar to Monday. The
upper level trough departs on Wednesday and a ridge starts to
builds over the east coast.
Some clouds associated with the offshore lows may stick around
through early Wednesday, mainly for eastern areas. However, any
associated precip is expected to stay offshore. Highs on Tuesday
will be a few degrees cooler than Monday, but then a warming trend
starts on Wednesday that will continue through Saturday. Highs
Wednesday will be similar to Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term period. Followed the NBM
closely.
Dry conditions will persist Thursday through Friday with high
pressure over the area gradually shifting offshore into
Friday. A frontal system approaches the area on Friday with a
warm font moving through Friday night followed by a cold frontal
passage sometime late Saturday or Saturday night. Much of the
forcing appears to maximize to the north of the area, closer to
the parent low over the Great Lakes. As such, only a slight
chance to low chance of showers exist with the warm frontal
passage on Friday night and the cold frontal passage on Saturday
or Saturday night. Beyond Saturday, a low pressure may develop
offshore over the Canadian Maritimes with another potential
piece of energy approaching the area from the southwest.
Southerly flow ahead of the frontal system on Friday and then on
Saturday will allow temperatures to be on a general warming
trend. Highs Thursday will be slightly above average with highs
in the middle to upper 40s. Highs Friday rise into the upper 40s
to low 50s and highs on Saturday will be in the low to middle
50s. Some localized spots may be in the upper 50s as the area
will be in the warm sector of the frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pres remains N of the region thru Tue.
VFR thru the TAF period. Marine stratus may work in from the NE
during the day on Tue.
NW winds veering to the N tngt and to the NE on Tue. Speeds
around 10kt thru tngt, then increasing a little on Tue. Ocnl
gusts possible today and again during the day on Tue.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Ocnl gusts to 20kt possible thru 22-00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Rest of Tue: VFR then MVFR possible aft 00Z.
Wed: MVFR possible in the mrng, then VFR.
Thu-Fri: VFR.
Sat: MVFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Long period 2-ft ESE swells from offshore low pressure will
continue through at least tonight and possibly into Tuesday,
with rough conditions around inlets. However, sub-SCA conditions
are expected through then, with ocean seas peaking just below 5
ft. Ocean seas could reach 5 ft by late Tuesday and remain at
4-5 ft thereafter, with SCA likely needed then.
Elevated seas should then linger on the ocean waters Thursday
through Friday night mainly due to higher seas. For Friday into
Friday night, wind gusts are currently forecast near 20 kt, so
there is a possibility for SCA level wind gusts of 25 kt on
much of the waters during this time if gusts trend higher in
subsequent forecasts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A prolonged period of ESE long period swells from two offshore
low pressure systems, combined with increasing astronomical
tides due to a new moon on Friday, will bring the potential for
minor coastal flooding this week. Water levels last night came
in a little lower than fcst, so minor flooding may be less
likely to occur tonight, but still appears likely with later
high tide cycles.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$