000
FXUS61 KOKX 051904
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
204 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build from the north and west into
Thursday, then shift to the southeast and pass offshore Thursday
night into Friday. A frontal system will approach from the west
Friday into Friday night, with a cold front moving across on
Saturday. This cold front will exit the area Saturday night,
with low pressure lingering near the Canadian Maritimes on
Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Afternoon fcst on track, with sunny skies and a N wind 10-15G20
mph. High temps per latest GFS LAMP should reach the upper 40s
in urban NE NJ, with lower/mid 40s elsewhere.
Tonight should start off clear throughout, then model soundings
and MOS sky cover fcsts indicate potential for at least few-
sct low clouds to spread into SE CT and eastern Long Island
mainly after midnight as a mid level shortwave through dives
southward through the CWA.
Continued CAA on N flow, with any blyr decoupling occurring
mostly late, should allow temps to fall to around 20 well inland
and in the Long Island Pine Barrens region, ranging upward from
there to near 30 at LGA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sfc high pressure over Quebec and Labrador will gradually nose
down the eastern seaboard as low pressure well E of Florida
passes well to the SE. A persistent 10-15 mph NE maritime flow
between the two should promote clouds mainly across S CT and
Long Island, but do not expect any precip.
Lower H10-8 thicknesses support idea of cooler temps for Tue,
with highs only a couple of degrees either side of 40, and lows
Tue night from the lower 30s in NYC to the lower 20s in
outlying areas. Thicknesses on Wed rebound to levels similar to
those of Mon, so expect similar high temps in the lower/mid
40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant changes to the long term period. Followed the NBM
closely.
Dry conditions will persist Thursday through Friday with high
pressure over the area gradually shifting offshore into
Friday. A frontal system approaches the area on Friday with a
warm font moving through Friday night followed by a cold frontal
passage sometime late Saturday or Saturday night. Much of the
forcing appears to maximize to the north of the area, closer to
the parent low over the Great Lakes. As such, only a slight
chance to low chance of showers exist with the warm frontal
passage on Friday night and the cold frontal passage on Saturday
or Saturday night. Beyond Saturday, a low pressure may develop
offshore over the Canadian Maritimes with another potential
piece of energy approaching the area from the southwest.
Southerly flow ahead of the frontal system on Friday and then on
Saturday will allow temperatures to be on a general warming
trend. Highs Thursday will be slightly above average with highs
in the middle to upper 40s. Highs Friday rise into the upper 40s
to low 50s and highs on Saturday will be in the low to middle
50s. Some localized spots may be in the upper 50s as the area
will be in the warm sector of the frontal system.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pres remains N of the region thru Tue.
VFR thru the TAF period. Marine stratus may work in from the NE
during the day on Tue.
NW winds veering to the N tngt and to the NE on Tue. Speeds
around 10 kt thru tngt, then increasing a little on Tue. Ocnl
gusts possible today and again during the day on Tue.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Ocnl gusts to 20kt possible thru 22-00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Rest of Tue: VFR then MVFR possible aft 00Z.
Wed: MVFR possible in the mrng, then VFR.
Thu-Fri: VFR.
Sat: MVFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Long period 2-ft ESE swells from offshore low pressure will
continue through at least tonight and possibly into Tuesday,
with rough conditions around inlets. Seas are running about 1
foot above 12Z GFSwave guidance, and extrapolating that trend into
Wed means the ocean waters could flirt with 5 ft seas on the
outer edge tonight into Tue morning. A more solid/widespread
chance of SCA (both 5+ ft seas and gusts to 25 kt) should occur
from Tue afternoon into Wed. SCA likely but will wait on 12Z
NWPS guidance before making final decision on SCA start/end
times.
Elevated seas should then linger on the ocean waters from Wed
night into Fri night. For Friday into Friday night, wind gusts
are currently forecast near 20 kt, so there is a possibility for
SCA level wind gusts of 25 kt on much of the waters during this
time if gusts trend higher in subsequent forecasts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A prolonged period of ESE long period swells from two offshore
low pressure systems, combined with increasing astronomical
tides due to a new moon on Friday, will bring the potential for
minor coastal flooding this week. Water levels last night came
in a little lower than fcst, so minor flooding may be less
likely to occur tonight, but still appears likely with later
high tide cycles.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG