000
FXUS61 KOKX 052107
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
407 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slowly build in from the north and west into
Thursday, then shift to the southeast and pass offshore Thursday
night into Friday morning. A frontal system will then approach
from the west for the weekend, sending a warm front across the
area Friday night, followed by a cold frontal passage late
Saturday. Weak high pressure briefly follows for Sunday before
another frontal system approaches early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Tonight should start off clear throughout, then model soundings
and MOS sky cover fcsts indicate potential for at least few-
sct low clouds to spread into SE CT and eastern Long Island
mainly after midnight as a mid level shortwave through dives
southward through the CWA.
Continued CAA on N flow, with any blyr decoupling occurring
mostly late, should allow temps to fall to around 20 well inland
and in the Long Island Pine Barrens region, ranging upward from
there to near 30 at LGA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sfc high pressure over Quebec and Labrador will gradually nose
down the eastern seaboard as low pressure well E of Florida
passes well to the SE. A persistent 10-15 mph NE maritime flow
between the two should promote clouds mainly across S CT and
Long Island, but do not expect any precip.
Lower H10-8 thicknesses support idea of cooler temps for Tue,
with highs only a couple of degrees either side of 40, and lows
Tue night from the lower 30s in NYC to the lower 20s in
outlying areas. Thicknesses on Wed rebound to levels similar to
those of Mon, so expect similar high temps in the lower/mid
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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This will be a rather quiet period and generally stayed close
to the NBM with some small adjustments to account for known
biases with winds and temperatures.
A highly amplified upper flow at the start of the period will
feature a ridge moving across the eastern third of the country,
and an upper trough out west. This will spell mainly quiet
weather and a warming tend through the first half of the
weekend. The eastern trough weakens while moving offshore by
Friday and the western trough reloads with additional shortwave
energy. A weakening frontal system will move over top the
weakening ridge, sending a weak frontal system through the
area, a warm front Friday night, followed by a cold frontal
passage late Saturday. Both will be accompanied by low chances
for rain. Weak high pressure follows for Sunday. Differences
then arise heading into early next week, with the 12Z ECMWF and
Canadian (GDPS) sending a stronger frontal system east as the
two branches of the polar jet undergo some phasing. The operational
GFS and its ensemble wants no part of this right now. There is
lots of time to see how this evolves in coming days, but a
chance of rain will be included in the forecast for Sunday night
into Monday.
As for temperatures, start off just above normal on Wednesday,
peaking on Saturday at 10-15 degrees above normal. Temperatures
then gradually fall off Sunday into Monday following a weak cold
frontal passage.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pres remains N of the region thru Tue.
VFR thru the TAF period. Marine stratus may work in from the NE
during the day on Tue.
NW winds veering to the N tngt and to the NE on Tue. Speeds
around 10 kt thru tngt, then increasing a little on Tue. Ocnl
gusts possible this aftn and again during the day on Tue.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Ocnl gusts to 20 kt possible thru 22Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Rest of Tuesday: VFR then MVFR possible aft 00Z.
Wed: MVFR possible in the mrng, then VFR.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Long period 2-ft ESE swells from offshore low pressure will
continue through at least tonight and possibly into Tuesday,
with rough conditions around inlets. Seas are running about 1
foot above 12Z GFSwave guidance, while latest NWPS guidance was
performing better. Took a blend of the two, which shows seas on
the ocean zones flirting with 5 ft on the outer edge tonight
into Tue morning, then a more solid/widespread chance of SCA
(both 5+ ft seas and gusts to 25 kt) occurring from Tue
afternoon into Wed. SCA issued for Tue afternoon E of Fire
Island Inlet and for Tue night-Wed for all the ocean zones.
An easterly swell will result in lingering seas on the ocean
through the end of the week which will get bumped up a bit in a
southerly Friday into Friday night. Otherwise, winds will
remain below SCA levels thought the period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Coastal flood advy issued for the south shore of Nassau, and a
statement for S Westchester and S Fairfield, for the high tides
late tonight into early Tue morning. This based mostly on
Stevens NYHOPS guidance performance during the last high tide.
A prolonged period of ESE long period swells from two offshore
low pressure systems, combined with increasing astronomical
tides due to a new moon on Friday, will bring the potential for
minor coastal flooding with the morning high tide cycles this
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG