000
FXUS61 KOKX 060226
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
926 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slowly builds in from the north and west into
Thursday, then shifts to the southeast and passes offshore
Thursday night into Friday morning. A frontal system will then
approach from the west for the weekend, sending a warm front
across the area Friday night, followed by a cold frontal passage
late Saturday. Weak high pressure briefly follows for Sunday
before another frontal system approaches early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Northerly winds have increased across eastern Long Island and
temperatures have increased by around 10 degrees with the
mixing. Only minor changes with this update.
Tonight should start off clear throughout, then model soundings
and MOS sky cover fcsts indicate potential for at least few-
sct low clouds to spread into SE CT and eastern Long Island
mainly after midnight as a mid level shortwave through dives
southward through the CWA.
Continued CAA on N flow (gusts up to 20 kt), with any blyr
decoupling occurring mostly late, should allow temps to fall to
around 20 well inland and in the Long Island Pine Barrens
region, ranging upward from there to near 30 at LGA.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sfc high pressure over Quebec and Labrador will gradually nose
down the eastern seaboard as low pressure well E of Florida
passes well to the SE. A persistent 10-15 mph NE maritime flow
between the two should promote clouds mainly across S CT and
Long Island, but do not expect any precip.
Lower H10-8 thicknesses support idea of cooler temps for Tue,
with highs only a couple of degrees either side of 40, and lows
Tue night from the lower 30s in NYC to the lower 20s in
outlying areas. Thicknesses on Wed rebound to levels similar to
those of Mon, so expect similar high temps in the lower/mid
40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This will be a rather quiet period and generally stayed close
to the NBM with some small adjustments to account for known
biases with winds and temperatures.
A highly amplified upper flow at the start of the period will
feature a ridge moving across the eastern third of the country,
and an upper trough out west. This will spell mainly quiet
weather and a warming tend through the first half of the
weekend. The eastern trough weakens while moving offshore by
Friday and the western trough reloads with additional shortwave
energy. A weakening frontal system will move over top the
weakening ridge, sending a weak frontal system through the
area, a warm front Friday night, followed by a cold frontal
passage late Saturday. Both will be accompanied by low chances
for rain. Weak high pressure follows for Sunday. Differences
then arise heading into early next week, with the 12Z ECMWF and
Canadian (GDPS) sending a stronger frontal system east as the
two branches of the polar jet undergo some phasing. The operational
GFS and its ensemble wants no part of this right now. There is
lots of time to see how this evolves in coming days, but a
chance of rain will be included in the forecast for Sunday night
into Monday.
As for temperatures, start off just above normal on Wednesday,
peaking on Saturday at 10-15 degrees above normal. Temperatures
then gradually fall off Sunday into Monday following a weak cold
frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains north of the region through Tuesday night.
VFR. Marine stratus may work in from the NE, into KGON, during
the day Tuesday.
N winds around 10 kt continue tonight, and become NE Tuesday
increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt continue at the NYC
metro terminals until around 05Z. Occasional gusts are again possible
Tuesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts to around 18 kt possible during Tuesday
afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR. MVFR possible after 06Z at KISP and KGON.
Wednesday: VFR. MVFR possible early in the morning at KISP and
KGON.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A few gust up to 25 kt possible early across western portions of
the marine (western LI Sound, NY Harbor, and ocean waters west
of Fire Island Inlet).
Long period 2-ft ESE swells from offshore low pressure will
continue through at least tonight and possibly into Tuesday,
with rough conditions around inlets. Seas are running about 1
foot above 12Z GFSwave guidance, while latest NWPS guidance was
performing better. Took a blend of the two, which shows seas on
the ocean zones flirting with 5 ft on the outer edge tonight
into Tue morning, then a more solid/widespread chance of SCA
(both 5+ ft seas and gusts to 25 kt) occurring from Tue
afternoon into Wed. SCA issued for Tue afternoon E of Fire
Island Inlet and for Tue night-Wed for all the ocean zones.
An easterly swell will result in lingering seas on the ocean
through the end of the week which will get bumped up a bit in a
southerly Friday into Friday night. Otherwise, winds will
remain below SCA levels thought the period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood advy in effect for the south shore of Nassau, and
a statement for S Westchester and S Fairfield, for the high
tides late tonight into early Tue morning. This based mostly on
Stevens NYHOPS guidance performance during the last high tide.
A prolonged period of ESE long period swells from two offshore
low pressure systems, combined with increasing astronomical
tides due to a new moon on Friday, will bring the potential for
minor coastal flooding with the morning high tide cycles this
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...