000
FXUS61 KOKX 061754
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1254 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build in from the north and west through
Wednesday night, then shift to the southeast and pass offshore
Thursday into Friday. A frontal system will approach from the
west for the weekend, sending a warm front across the area Friday
night, followed by a cold frontal passage late Saturday. Weak
high pressure briefly follows for Sunday before another frontal
system approaches early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains north of the region this afternoon with
mid level shortwave passing across eastern parts of the region.
Some extra clouds may develop across eastern sections of the
region, making for less sun while the rest of the region to the
west will have less clouds and more sun.
The pressure gradient will still be relatively tight for most
southeast parts of the region, making for breezy NE flow.
Forecast high temperatures are mainly near 40 with NYC more in
the lower 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight through Thursday night, upper level jet stays south and
west of the region. Mid level ridging takes place. Ridging
trend ends by early Friday.
At the surface, high pressure will remain in control. Dry conditions
will persist. Pressure gradient initially tonight tightened
especially across Long Island. This will result in gusty NE flow
along the coast, mainly this evening and Wednesday morning. Gusts
late tonight are still possible but will probably be more occasional.
Gradual warming trend in daytime temperatures forecast for the
region but this will be partially moderated with maritime influence
for more eastern sections as they only trend up to lower 40s for
highs. Meanwhile, rest of the region will see more mid to upper 40s
for high temperatures.
More maritime influence across Long Island as a result limiting
daytime insolation and high temperatures and at night, limiting the
radiational cooling. There could be some extra clouds again for
eastern sections of the region tonight.
The entire pressure gradient relaxes Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday night. This will be when the center of high pressure
gradually moves across the local region. Winds will trend lower
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.
Expect more efficient radiational cooling for Wednesday night
compared to Thursday night with more clear sky conditions in
addition to light winds. Manually lowered temperatures across
more rural sections below forecast model guidance to reflect a
more vast range of temperatures. Close to the coast and within
urban areas, lows Wednesday night will be similar to lows
Tuesday night.
On Thursday night, will also have some limit to radiational
cooling as upper level clouds start to move in from the west.
Lows forecast are several degrees warmer compared to the
previous night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not many significant changes to the long term. Stuck closely to the
NBM with minor adjustments.
Amplified mid-level ridging over the area on Friday will persist as
a weak frontal system moves through the area, first pushing a warm
front through on Friday and then a subsequent cold front late
Saturday into Saturday night. Other than some low chances for
showers, mainly with the cold front, much of the end of the week and
into the weekend should remain mostly dry with some cloud cover. The
frontal system pushes to the northeast with weak high pressure
building into the area for Sunday.
Models diverge in a solution to how to handle the next shortwave
approaching from the southwest into the beginning of next week.
Latest guidance has a coastal low developing south of the area but
vary greatly in timing, placement, and intensity as different
degrees of phasing occur with the northern branch of the jet stream.
Left chances for precipitation for Monday and Tuesday for the time
being but confidence in any particular solution at this time is low.
Temperatures will be above average through much of the extended
period. Highs in the upper 40s to near 50 on Friday will increase as
the area gets warm sectored on Saturday and highs rise into the
middle to upper 50s. Some moderation of the airmass takes place on
Sunday and Monday before high pressure pushes a cooler airmass back
into the area bringing temperatures back to near normal levels for
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains north of the region through tonight before
moving over the area into Wednesday with low pressure offshore
to the south and east.
VFR. Marine stratus may work in from the NE, into KGON, in the
afternoon/evening, and `possibly` into KISP tonight. TEMPOs were
used for BKN ceilings at ISP tonight. Stratus may bring high-
end MVFR cigs around 2500-3000ft.
Currently seeing NNE 10-15 kt. Occasional gusts up to 20 kt
will be possible during the afternoon, but not frequent enough
to mention in the TAFs. Wind back to more N tonight and diminish
remaining light tomorrow.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible during the afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: VFR. MVFR possible early in the morning at KISP and KGON.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions expected for the ocean waters first from
Moriches through Montauk and then rest of forecast ocean zones
late this morning through Wednesday.
Sub-SCA for the ocean Wednesday night through much of Thursday
night, but late Thursday night, SCA conditions could return.
Non-ocean zones remain below SCA thresholds during the short term
through Thursday night.
For the wave forecast, blended in latest SWAN guidance with the
previous forecast. Did not want to trend lower with seas too quickly
especially with a long period easterly swell still present in
some of the buoy data.
An easterly swell will result in lingering seas on the ocean through
the end of the week which will get bumped up a bit in a southerly
flow Friday into Friday night. Otherwise, winds will remain below
SCA levels throughout the long term period from Friday through
Saturday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Another round of coastal flooding is likely for the Wednesday
morning high tide cycle with a coastal flood advisory for S
Nassau likely being needed with a possible inclusion of a
coastal flood statement for S Queens and NY Harbor for near
minor coastal flood thresholds. A statement will also likely be
needed again for S Westchester and S Fairfield.
A prolonged period of ESE long period swells from two offshore low
pressure systems, combined with increasing astronomical tides due to
a new moon on Friday, will bring the potential for minor coastal
flooding with the morning high tide cycles this week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...BC/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BR/MW
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...