000
FXUS61 KOKX 070045
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
745 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build in from the north and west through
Thursday morning, then shift to the southeast and pass offshore
Thursday afternoon and night. A frontal system will approach from
the west for the weekend, sending a warm front across the area
Friday night, followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday night.
Weak high pressure will briefly follow for Sunday. An area of low
pressure is then expected to pass to the south early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds have relaxed a bit more with a ridge of high pressure
draped across the area from NE to SW. This has resulted in some
adjustments with winds generally being a bit lighter overnight.
Latest temperature trends also required some small adjustments
overnight
The forecast area will reside close to the ridge axis through
the night, with low pressure passing well south and east of the
area. The gradient should be sufficient to keep winds up slightly
more than they what we are seeing early this evening, from the
NNE at less than 10 mph.
Lows tonight will fall into the 20s and lower 30s. Warmest
readings will be across the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough and surface low pressure continue to slide
eastward as upper level ridging moves over the area from the west.
As the center of high pressure moves over the area, expected the
pressure gradient relaxes Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night. Expect mostly clear conditions through the short term period.
Highs on Wednesday will climb into the lower and middle 40s. Lows
Wednesday night will fall into the 20s and lower 30s. Once
again stuck fairly close to the MAV/MET guidance for
temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:
*Warming trend into the weekend. Temperatures 10-15 degrees above
normal by Saturday.
*Fast moving storm system likely to pass south of the area early
next week. There is a good deal of uncertainty with the storm track
and intensity.
The NBM was closely followed during this time period.
A highly amplified pattern at the onset will feature a ridge across
the eastern third of the country and a broad upper trough out west.
The ridge dampens heading off the coast and and an upper low tracks
across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Canada Friday into
Saturday. The latter of which will send a warm front through the
area Friday night, followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday
night. Chances of showers are low during this time. Weak high
pressure then follows for Sunday.
The forecast will become a bit more challenging heading into early
next week as a southern branch storm system ejects out of the
Southern Plains. The last several runs of the globals have shown a
significant amount of run-to-run variability with the surface low as
it passes to the south Monday into Tuesday. Differences largely
hinge on northern stream Pac jet energy dropping into the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest at about the same time. The interaction
between these two streams is posing significant issues for the model
guidance. However, these features are still well upstream out in
the Pacific, so it may take a few more days before there is better
continuity and higher confidence in the model solutions. The last 3
runs of the GFS (00Z, 06Z, 12Z) have bounced around significantly.
NBM is providing chance PoPs at this time and this seems reasonable
based on all the uncertainty mentioned. The ptype at this early
stage in the forecast is mainly rain on Monday with a mix of rain
and snow inland Monday night. Keep in mind, there are a wide range
of scenarios for ptype depending on the track and intensity of the
system. While there is not a strong high to the north, there is some
colder air available for the system.
Temperatures will be above average through much of the extended
period. Highs in the upper 40s to near 50 on Friday will increase as
the area gets warm sectored on Saturday and highs rise into the
middle to upper 50s away from the immediate coast. A gradual cool
down then follows Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure settles in from the north tonight, and remains over
the area through mid week.
VFR for most terminals throughout the TAF period. The only exception
will be for some marine stratus that backs in from the E and NE late
tonight and into Wed AM, especially out towards KGON. The marine
stratus may possibly get into KISP and KBDR towards daybreak. This
is reflected in TEMPO groups for MVFR ceilings of around 2500 ft in
the 10 to 15z timeframe. Otherwise, VFR ceilings throughout at the
remaining terminals.
The winds become lighter and variable at times in direction for the
non-city terminals through this evening. Thereafter expect a light N
to NNE wind remaining under 10 kt into the day on Wednesday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday Night: VFR. MVFR possible at KGON.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain late Saturday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect tonight and Wednesday for the
ocean waters. Conditions will be somewhat marginal and seas will
generally remain around 4-5ft. Other than a few occasional gusts to
25kt, winds will remain below criteria. The non-ocean waters are
expected to remain below small craft levels.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday night.
An easterly swell will result in lingering seas of 3 to 4 ft on the
ocean through Thursday. This is a downward trend the last 24h. A
strengthening southerly flow Friday into Friday night will likely
bump this ocean seas to SCA levels, which may linger through
Saturday. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels for
the non-ocean waters throughout the long term period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood advisory in effect for the south shore of Nassau, and
a statement for S. Queens, S Westchester and S Fairfield, for the
times of high tide early Wednesday morning. This based mostly on
Stevens NYHOPS guidance performance during the last high tide.
A prolonged period of ESE long period swells from two offshore low
pressure systems, combined with increasing astronomical tides due to
a new moon on Friday, will bring the potential for minor coastal
flooding with the morning high tide cycles this week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...