discussion on 2024-02-07

000
FXUS61 KOKX 071430
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
930 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will slowly build in from the north and settle
over the area through Thursday morning, then shift to the
southeast and pass offshore Thursday afternoon and night. A
frontal system begins to impact the area late Friday with a cold
front approaching and eventually moving across Saturday night.
Another front or trough could potentially move across Sunday
with otherwise brief weak high pressure for late weekend.
Another low could impact the region early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
reflect the latest observations of temperature, dew point, and
sky cover.

Mainly clear conditions persist for the area this morning with
a high pressure building in from the north. Some areas of marine
stratus are getting close to the extreme Eastern portions of
the area this morning but shouldn`t make much of a westward
progression before gradually dissipating today.

The upper level ridging to the west becomes better established
over the area into today. Mostly clear to sunny skies will
result in high temperatures into the lower to middle 50s,
around average for this time of year. Lows tonight are in the
middle to upper 20s.

Winds gradually diminish through the day as the pressure
gradient relaxes, though there may be an occasional gust near 20
mph this afternoon. Winds lessen moreso overnight with
radiational cooling becoming possible once again.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure moves overhead for Thursday and Thursday night with
the axis of the upper level ridge over the CWA. Temperatures will be
on a general warming trend with a more southerly component of the
wind taking place over the area as the high shifts offshore THursday
night. Highs on Thursday will be in the middle to upper 40s.

Cloud cover may begin to move into the area from the west later in
the day and at night on Wednesday ahead of the next frontal
system, though conditions will remain dry. Lows Thursday night will
be in the 30s, warmest near the coast and the NYC metro.

The warming trend continues Friday with highs in the upper 40s to
lower 50s for NE NJ and the NYC metro. While conditions will remain
dry, the next frontal system is expected to begin to move through
later in the day on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* Warming trend continues into Saturday with declining trend in
  temperatures thereafter. Forecast highs Saturday get well into the
  50s for much of the region.

* Low pressure passes southeast of the region early next week.
  Possible rain and/or snow. Lots of uncertainty so exact
  precipitation amounts are very low confidence.

Amongst the numerical weather prediction models, their depiction of
mid level height pattern conveys a transition to more of a less
amplified trough pattern across the region on a large scale this
weekend into early next week. Zooming into the local region, more
of a quasi-zonal pattern is evident.

At the surface, a warm front initially will already be northeast of
the region, with the local area being more in the warm sector of the
low pressure system. Its associated cold front approaches the area
on Saturday and eventually moves across Saturday night. The parent
low attached to the front shows in some models a slight increase in
pressure.

The weakening parent low and front as well as lack of moisture
content will keep POPs quite low with the cold front Saturday night.

Weak high pressure will bring a brief period of dry conditions for
the remainder of the weekend but another low approaches on Monday
from the south and west.

This low early next week has differences in models with strength and
differences in timing of its movement. Overall, the low appears to
be stronger compared to the one during the previous weekend. Monday
night into Tuesday is the general timeframe many models depict the
low to move southeast of the region.

More widespread precipitation potential with possibility of rain
and/or snow early next week with approach and strengthening of low
pressure. ECMWF takes a more aggressive approach with a
stronger low compared to GFS and Canadian models. Ensembles of
ECMWF and GFS depict varying low positions, signaling much
uncertainty.

For Late Sunday night through Tuesday of next week, chances for rain
and/or snow.

Concerning temperatures, the warming trend wraps up during the first
half of the weekend. A declining trend temperatures is
forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds across from the north through the TAF
period.

VFR conditions are expected for most terminals. KGON also looks
like it will remain VFR now with just a low chance of seeing
MVFR conditions through 18Z.

Winds will be generally light, 5-10 kts today and then near 5
kts or less for the remainder of the TAF period. Wind direction
generally N-NE today but will become more variable tonight into
Thursday AM.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Thursday and Friday: VFR.

Saturday: MVFR possible with slight chance of rain.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible late Sunday night with a slight
chance of rain and/or snow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --No changes to winds and seas at this time.

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through today for the
ocean waters. Conditions will be somewhat marginal and seas will
generally remain around 4-5 ft. Other than a few occasional
gusts to 20-25kt, winds will remain below small craft criteria.
The non-ocean waters are expected to remain below small craft
levels.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight and through early
Thursday.

An easterly swell will result in lingering seas of 3 to 4 ft on the
ocean late Thursday with possible marginal SCA seas developing
with waves near 5 ft. SCA seas probably linger on the ocean
Friday night through early Sunday before they are forecast to
drop below SCA criteria thereafter. Otherwise, no other SCA
level conditions are forecast through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood statement remains until 15Z this morning for
Southern Westchester and Southern Fairfield. This based mostly
on Stevens NYHOPS guidance performance during the last high
tide.

A prolonged period of ESE long period swells from two offshore low
pressure systems, combined with increasing astronomical tides due to
a new moon on Friday, will bring the potential for minor coastal
flooding with the morning high tide cycles this week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM/JP
MARINE...JM/MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...