000
FXUS61 KOKX 080003
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
703 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the northeast through Thursday and
begins to drift off the coast Thursday night. Low pressure will
lift north of the Great Lakes on Friday and across eastern
Canada through the weekend. The associated cold front will
approach from the west Saturday, and pass through the area
Saturday night. Weak high pressure will follow for Sunday. An
area of low pressure is then expected to impact the area early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some mid level clouds coming around the east side of the upper
ridge and have worked into the Lower Hudson Valley and western
CT. This was not well handled by the earlier guidance and the
18Z GFS and NAM have to some extent picked up on this moisture.
With subsidence on the east side of the ridge, it would seem
prudent that some of this will dissipate through the night.
However, this will have to be watched and may result in temps
needing to be bumped up with later updates.
The upper ridge remains to the west of the region while surface
high pressure settles over the northeast tonight. With the
center of high moving into the region winds will become light
to near calm. Good radiational cooling may not pan out as well
as earlier thought if these mid level clouds don`t dissipate.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge axis moves over the region around 00Z Friday,
and then drifts just offshore Thursday night. Meanwhile the
surface high remains centered over the area through most of
Thursday and begins to move off shore Thursday evening. Weak
warm advection begins to set up late in the day, and continues
into Thursday night. With a combination of the airmass modifying
under mostly sunny conditions, and the beginning of warm
advection temperatures are expected to be warmer Thursday than
Wednesday`s, especially inland as light winds shift to south
along the coastal plain. Daytime temperatures will be 5 to
around 10 degrees above normal, and once again leaned toward the
MOS guidance.
Clouds increase later Thursday night, however, with light winds
and near clear skies early temperatures drop off quickly, then
more slowly late Thursday night with the increased high clouds.
A few mid deck clouds may also develop. While temperatures
overnight Thursday may be similar to Wednesday night`s lows
there is a chance that they may not drop off as much depending
on the timing of the increased clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* Warming trend into Saturday. Temperatures 10-15 degrees above
normal by Saturday. A gradual decline is expected thereafter.
* There continues to be a lot of run-to-run change for a low pressure
system that is expected to impact the area Monday into
Tuesday. Trend last 24h has been warmer. Possible rain and/or
snow.
A weakening upper ridge will move off the eastern seaboard on
Friday, while surface low pressure lifts north of the Great
Lakes. The latter of which will track across eastern Canada
through Saturday, sending a weak cold front through the region
Saturday night. The GFS in particular, has a stronger frontal
wave that passes to the north and west late Saturday, prior to
the cold front passing through. This could result in some warm
advection rain ahead of the system, but any rainfall at this
time is expected to be light. Weak high pressure then follows
for Sunday.
The challenging part of the forecast remains with a storm
system that ejects out of the Souther High PLains late Saturday
night into Sunday. The last several days there has been a lot of
flip-flopping with the low track and intensity due to the amount
of phasing of this system with northern branch energy. The 12Z
guidance has clearly trended warmer the last 24h with more phasing
and a low track passing close to the area Monday night into Tuesday.
With a lack of strong high to the north, this track would result
in mainly rain, or a transition to snow from NW to SE on the
backside of the low. That being said, using 13Z NBM Wx Type
probabilities, which may have been more reflective of colder
solutions, indicates a potential for a changeover to snow,
especially inland. The energy associated with this system is
still back across the northern Pacific and will dive SE across
western Canada Thursday into Thursday night and into a split
flow out west. Bottom line, this is highly volatile flow. Let`s
see where we are in another 24-48h and see if models start to
maintain better continuity.
High pressure will then follow behind the storm system for the
middle of next week with a return to more normal temperatures.
Concerning temperatures, the warming trend through the first
half of the weekend could result in record max min temps
Saturday. A declining trend in temperatures is forecast for
Sunday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure passes through the area tonight and then shifts
offshore on Thursday.
VFR.
Light and variable winds tonight. Winds then shift to the S to
SE and remain light late Thursday morning through the end of the
TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain and/or
snow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure remaining over the waters winds and seas will
remain below advisory levels tonight through Thursday night.
There is a chance of marginal SCA conditions developing Saturday
and continuing into Sunday morning in a strengthening SW flow
with seas building to around 5 ft. Otherwise, no other SCA level
conditions are forecast through Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next
week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have issued statements for S Nassau and S Fairfield/Westchester
for the Thursday morning high tide cycle, with water levels
once again touching or barely surpassing minor flood thresholds.
Guidance is unanimous on daytime high tide cycles Friday into
early next week likely being higher and possibly requiring
advisories for these areas. Minor flood potential could expand
into the NY harbor with the Sat AM high tide cycle.
Forcing for most of this prolonged event is a combination of
incoming long period swells from on ocean storm, and increasing
astronomical tides due to a new moon on Friday. A storm passing
nearby early next week may have potential to produce more
significant flooding, especially with astronomical tides peaking
on the 13th, otherwise this will be highly dependent on storm
track, timing, and intensity, which are all uncertain.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...