000
FXUS61 KOKX 081255
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
755 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the northeast through Thursday and
begins to drift off the coast Thursday night. Low pressure will
lift north of the Great Lakes on Friday and across eastern
Canada through the weekend. The associated cold front will
approach from the west Saturday, and pass through the area
Saturday night. Weak high pressure will follow for Sunday. An
area of low pressure is then expected to impact the area early
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
reflect the most recent observations in temperature and dew
point.
High pressure remains over the Northeast today with some mid-level
clouds around this morning that are riding over a mid-level ridge
positioned to the west. Any mid-level clouds around this morning
should dissipate and give way to ample sunshine today with
fairly light winds. As the ridge axis shifts over the area,
temperatures will gradually warm such that highs this afternoon
will be in the middle to upper 40s. Some spots near the NYC
metro and NE NJ may rise into the low 50s.
By evening, the area will begin to see an increase in cloud cover as
energy from a large occluded low pressure system north of the Great
Lakes approaches the region from the west. The added cloud
cover and the subtle shift in a southerly wind as the high shift
offshore will allow for temperatures to remain marginally
warmer than previous nights. Lows will be in the 30s. Though if
clouds hold off a bit in the early evening, some interior
locations may drop quickly due to radiational cooling.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weak warm front moves through the area early Friday with
southerly flow developing during the day. Any cloud cover
associated with the warm frontal passage in the morning should
dissipate to some extent by mid-day. A lack of moisture with the
frontal passage will mean dry conditions expected. Southerly
flow and at least partly cloudy skies combined with a ridge axis
moving overhead will bring warmer temperatures with highs on
Friday in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
The area remains in the warm sector of the frontal system into
Saturday with high temperatures in the 50s. Some areas near the
NYC metro may approach 60. A frontal wave may develop along the
approaching cold front to the west of the area. This may bring
with it a chance for showers, though it seems like the best
chance for showers are northwestern areas as they will be closer
to the strongest forcing. Despite this, at least a chance of
showers is possible for the area with the frontal passage late
Saturday into Saturday night. Lows Saturday night will be warm,
generally in the low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The main focus of the long term will be the evolution of a wave of
low pressure approaching from the south and west Sunday into early
next week.
Model and ensemble trends turning colder and more amplified for
early next week after looking at 500mb height differences
between initializations of 00Z January 7th and 00Z January 8th.
500mb and 250mb height patterns transitioned from more zonal to
more trough like over the past 24 hours. Precipitation chances
are higher compared to previous forecast. Likely POPs are
forecast Monday night. A mixture of both rain and snow is
forecast, with more time periods of snow across the interior
compared to near the coast. The time window of concern is Monday
through Tuesday, roughly a 36 hour window.
This 36 hour time window covers onset of precipitation ahead of the
low Monday, when it deepens and perhaps with more intense
precipitation for Monday night, and lingering precipitation on the
backside of the low Tuesday.
The question of how much rain and how much snow, and their relative
fraction will be highly dependent on the position of the low as it
approaches from the south and west. There is no strong
antecedent high pressure area allowing for colder air so snow
will be dependent on how strong the low becomes. Forecast has
mainly rain along the coast and more mixing with snow for more
inland areas. The current forecast has low confidence Monday
through Tuesday.
Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast to close out the weekend.
Then there is the precipitation Monday through Tuesday. This will be
followed by more dry conditions Tuesday night through midweek.
Looking at daytime temperatures, they will be on a declining trend
Sunday (upper 40s to lower 50s) through the middle of next
week (near 35 to 40 for Wednesday next week).-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the area eventually slides east and offshore
tonight into Friday.
VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals. Winds will be under
10 kt through the TAF period. Wind direction will be variable
initially this morning and then more southerly this afternoon and
into the remainder of the TAF period. Some outlying terminals
tonight into early Friday are forecast to have more variable
wind direction once again.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain showers.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain and/or
snow. Precipitation more likely at night. E-NE wind gusts near
20 kt at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
With high pressure remaining over the waters, winds and seas
will remain below advisory levels through Friday night.
SCA conditions then look likely to develop on the ocean on
Saturday as waves rise 5-7 feet ahead of a frontal system and
strengthening SW flow. Gusts may approach 25 kt as well on
Saturday before dropping below SCA levels Saturday night and
into Sunday morning.
Regarding wind gusts, sub-SCA level wind gusts forecast Sunday
through Monday evening. SCA level wind gusts begin to develop late
Monday night in response to low pressure moving in, mainly across
the ocean. Regarding seas, residual SCA level seas are forecast on
the ocean on Sunday. Otherwise, seas are forecast to remain below
SCA thresholds on non-ocean waters Sunday through Monday night and
for the ocean, below SCA Sunday night through Monday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend. Too much
uncertainty to denote precipitation amounts with system early
next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Statements for S Nassau and S Fairfield/Westchester for the high
tide cycles this morning, with water levels once again touching
or barely surpassing minor flood thresholds. Guidance is
unanimous on daytime high tide cycles Friday into early next
week likely being higher and possibly requiring advisories for
these areas. Minor coastal flood potential could expand into the
NY harbor with the Sat AM high tide cycle.
Forcing for most of this prolonged event is a combination of
incoming long period swells from on ocean storm, and increasing
astronomical tides due to a new moon on Friday. A storm passing
nearby early next week may have potential to produce more
significant flooding, especially with astronomical tides peaking
on the 13th, otherwise this will be highly dependent on storm
track, timing, and intensity, which are all uncertain.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...