000
FXUS61 KOKX 082059
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EST Thu Feb 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure begins to move east of the region tonight. Low
pressure will lift north of the Great Lakes on Friday and across
eastern Canada through the weekend. An associated cold front will
approach from the west Saturday, and pass through the area Saturday
night. Weak high pressure will follow for Sunday. An area of
low pressure is then expected to approach from the southwest on
Monday, passing to the south and east of the area Monday night
into Tuesday. High pressure then builds in from the west for the
middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure over the region will begin to slide eastward
tonight. The area will start to see an increase in cover as low
pressure north of the Great Lakes slides eastward into
southeastern Canada.

Winds tonight will remain light, but a bit more southerly than
previous nights. The combination of the light south winds and
increasing cloud cover should allow for temperatures to a little
warmer than previous nights. Lows tonight will fall into the
20s and 30s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Friday, a weak warm front moves through the area with southerly
flow developing during the day. Any early morning cloud cover
should dissipate by mid-day with a sunny late morning/early
afternoon expected. Southerly flow, decreasing cloud cover, and
a ridge axis moving overhead will bring warmer temperatures with
highs on Friday in the upper 40s to middle 50s.

The area remains in the warm sector on Saturday with high
temperatures in the 50s. A few locations around the NYC/NJ metro
area may approach 60. A cold front will approach from the west
on Saturday which could bring a few showers to the region. POPs
will remain at chance for now, however some of the forecast
guidance has hinted at a wave of low pressure could develop
along the cold front. If so, POPs may increase during this time
frame. Lows Saturday night will be warm, generally in the low
40s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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* Models continue to see significant north-south shifts and changes
  in the timing of low pressure that is expected to impact the area
  Monday into Tuesday. Low track has shifted to the south the last
  24h. Chance rain and/or snow.

* Temperatures will trend down to normal levels by mid week.

Models and their ensembles continue to lack continuity with the
track and timing of a souther branch storm system that is expected
to impact the area later Monday into Tuesday. Like we saw 24h ago,
the ensembles continue to closely follow their operational,
indicating an under dispersed solution. The players feature north
Pacific jet energy diving down the coast of western Canada today and
into a split flow of the polar jet across the west. This pattern has
been causing much volatility in the NWP. Now that this energy is
onshore, the hope is the continuity will improve heading into the
weekend. In addition, the splitting of the energy into the two
stream and their interaction across the CONUS is another major
factor contributing to the run-to-run changes.

As is stands now, once again with all the uncertainty in the
forecast, have stayed closed to the NBM outside of some small
changes. High pressure will builds across the area Sunday and then
gives way to low pressure moving out of the Lower Mississippi Valley
Sunday night and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Monday. The
12Z GFS is the slowest of the guidance and lags its ensemble mean
(GEFS), but there is a good cluster of members that are in line with
this slower track. The Canadian (and GEPS) and ECMWF are about 12h
faster. The low is expected to track off the Mid Atlantic coast
Monday night into Tuesday, passing south and east of the 40N...70W
benchmark. That being the case, confidence is still not high on this
track based on the lack of continuity. As for precipitation type,
whatever gets in here Monday should be rain with the potential of a
changeover on the backside of the system Monday night into Tuesday.
The lack of a strong surface high to the north and ESE flow at the
onset, will likely result in temperatures too warm for snow. There
is more uncertainty of course for inland locations, being father
removed from the maritime influence. Bottom line, it is way too
early to be specific with details, but it is something to watch in
coming days.

High pressure builds in for the middle of the week with cold, dry
conditions. Gusty NW winds will likely prevail on the backside of
the system Wednesday into Thursday.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure over the area eventually slides east and offshore
tonight into Friday.

VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals. Winds will be under
10 kt through the TAF period. Wind direction is still variable in
some spots, most most TAF sites will see more persistent light south
winds through the evening before becoming variable again tonight or
just very light from the south. Tomorrow will carry more light south
winds.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain showers.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain and/or snow.
Precipitation more likely at night. E-NE wind gusts near 20 kt at
night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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With high pressure remaining over the waters, winds and seas
will remain below advisory levels through Friday night.

SCA conditions then look likely to develop on the ocean on
Saturday as waves increase to 5-7 feet ahead of a frontal system
and strengthening SW flow. Right now, gusts are expected to
remain below SCA criteria, but may approach 25kt Saturday
afternoon and early evening.

Residual SCA level seas are forecast to linger on the ocean into
Sunday afternoon. High pressure will then follow with sub-SCA
conditions into Monday. An approaching storm system will result in a
strengthening NE flow with SCA level wind gusts to develop late
Monday night into Tuesday. There is a chance of northerly gales on
the ocean waters Tuesday into Tuesday night on the backside of
deepening low pressure.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend. Too much
uncertainty to denote precipitation amounts with system early next
week.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels just barely touched minor thresholds across S
Nassau and S Fairfield/Westchester as expected. Guidance has
consistently forecast higher water levels with the AM high tide
cycles both Fri and Sat, and will be issuing advisories for
those locations and time frames. Minor flooding not expected
elsewhere, though some spots along the lower NY Harbor may come
close.

Forcing for most of this prolonged event is a combination of
incoming long period swells from on ocean storm, and increasing
astronomical tides due to the new moon on Friday. A storm
passing nearby early next week has potential to produce
widespread minor to locally moderate flooding from Mon night
into Tue night, especially with astronomical tides peaking
during the time frame. The outcome will be highly dependent on
storm track, timing, and intensity, which remain too uncertain
to offer details.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to noon EST Friday for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to noon EST Friday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for
     NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for NYZ179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...