000
FXUS61 KOKX 092318
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
618 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front pushes to the northeast tonight. A cold front pushes
through late Saturday into Saturday night. The front settles south
of the area Sunday as weak high pressure builds. Low pressure
approaches from the southwest Monday into Monday night and deepens
as it tracks south and east of Long Island Tuesday. Brief high
pressure builds in before a wave of low pressure passes through
sometime Thursday night into Friday. High pressure then builds
in thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front pushes through tonight, with a weak pressure
gradient in place behind the boundary. A couple of tricky
details with respect to the fx tonight. The amount of cloud
cover will prove difficult to pin down, with fx sounding and
current satellite imagery showing some high clouds. This will
impact where low clouds, mainly some fog can form later at night
as it tries to radiate. However, with light winds and some
clouds fog may not be able to form. But where clouds do not form
expect some fog to develop. Chose to split the difference and
put in some patchy fog in the more typical rural locations that
typically experience such. A mild night for this time of year
with mainly middle and upper 30s, although where middle 30s can
get reached where dew points will reside is where some fog may
develop.
Saturday will feature more mild conditions as the area will be more
or less in the warm sector with a cold front approaching from the
northwest. The day will feature a good deal of clouds as mid level
moisture streaks in from the SW. This however will not prevent
temperatures from getting well into the 50s in most places, although
it will be a bit cooler across eastern sections. As the front
approaches later in the day cannot totally rule out a few showers
across W and NW zones, however PoPs on Saturday were lowered to
slight chance for late in the day, except NW sections where chance
PoPs were kept for very late in the day and early evening. Used
consensus temps and dew points.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As the cold front pivots through Saturday evening and with that the
slight chance of a few showers, or perhaps just a few sprinkles.
Went below NBM PoPs. The cold front won`t exactly blast through and
should slow a bit. Have maintained mostly cloudy skies for the most
part, although some brief partial clearing can occur late.
The cold front will settle nearby to the south on Sunday. A fair
amount of cloud cover is still anticipated, however some partial
clearing should filter into northern and northwestern sections.
Despite some clouds it will remain relatively mild for this time of
year with Pacific air still in place, even behind the cold front.
Most places will get into the upper 40s and lower 50s before turning
cooler later towards evening.
Temperatures will once again average above normal for Saturday night
into Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Low pressure will pass to our south and east impacting the area
Monday night into Tuesday.
*Temperatures will be right around normal the entire long term
period.
The main story of the long term period is the increasing confidence
in a coastal low that will approach from the southwest Monday into
Monday night and deepen as it tracks south and east of Long Island
Tuesday. There continues to be differences in surface low strength,
timing and track across the latest guidance, as well as key
differences aloft that will have to monitored.
A closed upper low and associated surface low will lift northeast
out of the Southern Plains on Monday, with the upper low opening as
it does so. Low pressure then deepens off the coast and passes to
our south and east.
At the surface, the latest GFS, GEFS and ECMWF have trended slightly
farther north. The Canadian remains the weakest and farthest south.
Aloft, the GFS has trended stronger, and is currently the strongest,
with a northern stream shortwave approaching from the west that will
have some interaction with the shortwave lifting up from the south.
The Canadian is showing this feature much farther west, less
amplified and not interacting with the shortwave lifting from the
south. This is causing the Canadian to show a weaker and quicker
moving system.
Given the model spread, continued to stay close to the NBM for now.
With no real cold air in place, this will likely be a mixed ptype
event. Current thinking is slight chance PoPs start Monday afternoon
as all rain, with some snow mixing across the far northern interior.
PoPs become likely Monday night, with more snow starting to mix in
across the interior. Heading into Tuesday, as colder air gets
wrapped up behind the system, we likely see all snow across the
northern half of the area and ending as a snow and/or rain mix
across the southern half of the area. The greatest chances for
accumulating snow are across the interior as of right now. The WPC
Day 4 probability of 0.25 inches of melted snow/sleet include most
of the interior in a 30 to 50 percent chance and the rest of the
area in a 10 to 30 percent chance.
Thereafter, model spread increases. Weak high pressure may build in
followed by another weak low later in the week. Stuck with NBM
slight chance PoPs late in the week.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front lifts north of the terminals through tonight.
A cold front passes across late Saturday.
Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. There may be
some IFR fog at outlying terminals tonight. There is also a low
chance for IFR-LIFR ceilings. Confidence is low on flight categories
for outlying terminals with higher confidence in VFR prevailing at
this time.
S-SE flow around 10-12 kt continues into the early evening before
wind speeds diminish after sunset. Winds become light and/or
variable overnight. A light SW flow develops on Saturday and should
remain below 10 kt into the afternoon.
A sprinkle or light rain shower is possible Saturday afternoon and
evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind direction may fluctuate between 130-170 at KEWR and KTEB
through 00z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of a light shower or sprinkle.
Sunday: VFR.
Monday...MVFR or lower possible late.
Monday Night-Tuesday...IFR or lower possible. Rain likely near coast
with rain/snow mix inland, becoming all snow inland late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. A rain/snow mix is likely down to the
coast Tuesday morning. Becoming VFR Tuesday afternoon/evening. N-NW
wind gusts 25-30 kt Tuesday.
Wednesday...VFR...NW wind gusts 25-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
There will be a weak pressure gradient tonight into Saturday
morning. The pressure gradient increase Saturday afternoon and
evening as a cold front approaches. At this time it appears small
craft criteria will not be met with seas averaging closer to 4 ft
and any small craft gusts being closer to 20 kt, although an
occasional gust to around 25 kt cannot be ruled out late Saturday
and through the first half of Saturday night. The WNW flow should
yield sub small craft conditions into Sunday as well. With an
easterly swell component lingering, ocean seas should remain close
to 4 ft throughout the weekend.
Sub-SCA conditions are expected Sunday night through most of Monday
night. Low pressure then passes to our south and east and will bring
impacts to the area. 25 to 30 kt wind gusts look likely late Monday
night through Tuesday and then again on Wednesday. There is also a
period on Tuesday where wind gusts on the ocean could approach gale
criteria, 30 to 35 kt. Wave heights likely builds to 5 ft early
Tuesday and then remain at 5 to 8 ft through Wednesday. With the
pressure gradient never really relaxing, and a wave of low pressure
expected late week, conditions will be in and out of SCA criteria
through the rest of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues expected at this time.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Look for minor coastal flooding to continue for the Saturday morning
high tide cycle for the south shore bays of Nassau where advisories
remain in effect, and statements have been issued for Queens,
Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Hudson in Lower NE NJ. Also, an advisory
is in place for the late morning/ early afternoon cycle on Saturday
for Westchester and Fairfield, and the statement has been
discontinued for New Haven as a persistence tidal forecast has been
applied with New Haven falling short of minor thresholds with the
previous cycles. The tide levels will remain elevated over the
course of the weekend after just coming off the astronomical peak
with the recent new moon.
A storm passing nearby early next week has potential to produce
widespread minor to locally moderate flooding from Mon night into
Tue night. The outcome will be highly dependent on storm track; and
thus the specific wind direction, timing, and intensity, which
remain too uncertain to offer details at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for
NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for
NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/JT
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JE