000
FXUS61 KOKX 101821
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
121 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front passes through tonight, with weak high pressure
left in its wake Sunday through Monday afternoon. Deepening low
pressure will approach from the southwest Monday night, passing
south and east of Long Island on Tuesday. Brief high pressure
will build in before an Alberta Clipper low passes through some
time from Thursday night into Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Updates made mainly to hourly grids over the next few hours.
A mild day today with mostly cloudy conditions as a mid level
shortwave approaches. Despite the cloud cover, we will end up in
the 50s for most locations. Can not rule out a few 60 degree
readings across metro NJ/NYC.

A cold front moves across the area this evening and overnight.
Can not rule out a few showers, with the best chances
generally north and west of NYC. PoP is limited to just chance
or slight chance.

The cold front will be slow to move across, so will continue
with a mostly cloudy forecast overnight. Can`t rule out some
brief partial clearing late. Lows tonight fall into the 30s and
40s, well above normal for this time of year.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will settle to the south on Sunday and remain in
place through Sunday night. It will remain mostly cloudy for
much of the period, and it may not be until Sunday night that
some partial clearing if any starts to take place.

Despite the clouds it will remain relatively mild for this time
of year. Most places will get into the mid/upper 40s before
turning cooler toward evening. Overnight lows fall into the 20s
and 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* Confidence is increasing for a winter storm to impact the
  area late Monday night into Tuesday.

* Temperatures will be around or just below normal.

Model run-to-run continuity has been very good the last 24h
with a southern branch system that will send a deepening low
south of the area Monday night into Tuesday. Earlier in the
week, there were significant run-to-run changes with the track
and intensity of the system. Now that the Pac energy has dropped
into a split flow across the western U.S., the hope is that the
guidance will remain fairly consistent in coming days. However,
with the lack of a strong damming high to the north, the
slightest north-south shifts in the low track will determine
where the rain-snow line sets up and how quickly coastal
locations will go over to snow. The guidance is in pretty good
agreement that the northern and southern branches of the polar
jet will not phase until the system gets east of the area. This
does one of two things, it allows the northern branch energy to
race far enough ahead to send colder air into the region, and
two, keeps the low track potentially far enough south of the
area to draw in the colder air and produce an accumulating
snowfall for the region. The liquid equivalent for this system
is around an inch across much of the guidance. The question is
what percentage of this event is snow versus rain. At this time,
inland locations have the greatest potential for an advisory
level snow or higher. The EPS and GEFS ensembles show a high
probability of an advisory level event even for coastal
locations with about a 40-50 percent chance of meeting warning
criteria inland. The NBM probabilities are a bit lower inland
and not as high for an advisory level event a the coast. Coastal
areas will be more of a challenge due to the time it may take
for winds to back around from the E to the NE and eventually N
late Monday night to draw in the colder air. These details will
be refined in coming days.

As for timing, precipitation will develop overnight Monday, with
the heaviest coming in the pre-dawn into early afternoon
hours. NE-N winds will strengthen Monday night, gusting to 20 to
30 mph by daybreak, possibly higher. High pressure then follows
before a clipper system arrives at the end of the week with a
chance of rain or snow.

As for temperatures, much of the period will be at or just below
normal with a prolonged period of gusty W-NW winds behind the
low. There could be slight uptick in temps Thursday with a
clipper low approaching from the NW. There are some differences
with the magnitude of the cold air to follow at the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front will pass through tonight. Weak high pressure will
then follow in its wake through Monday afternoon.

Mainly VFR. Can not rule out a brief shower ahead of cold fropa
this evening. Timing should be across the lower Hudson Valley
from 23Z-01Z, NYC metros/KBDR from 00Z-02Z, and KISP/KGON from
01Z-03Z, perhaps an hour later.

SW-WSW flow up to 10 kt this afternoon will diminish somewhat
this evening, and may even briefly back SW-S before fropa (not
indicated in TAF). Winds shift WNW less than 10 kt after fropa,
and eventually become NW late tonight. NW flow around 10 kt
expected after 13Z Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief -SHRA possible from about 00Z-02Z with cold fropa. Winds
could also back more SW-S during this time frame. Timing of
these could be delayed by about an hour.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday...VFR.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Monday night...IFR or lower cond likely. At KSWF/KHPN, rain or
a snow/rain mix, changing to all snow after midnight.
Elsewhere, rain possibly mixing with snow late. NE winds 10-15
G20-25 kt late, highest NYC metro/coast.

Tuesday...IFR or lower cond likely. Precip changing to all snow
by late morning. Snow tapering off from W-E during the
afternoon, with cond possibly becoming VFR late. NE-N winds
15-20 G25-30kt, becoming NW in the afternoon.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...VFR. NW winds
10-15G20kt daytime, and 10-15G20kt at night.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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The pressure gradient will increase later this afternoon and
this evening as a cold front approaches. Conditions should
remain below SCA criteria, with seas right around 4 ft and any
gusts being closer to 20 kt, although an occasional gust to
around 25 kt cannot be ruled out late today into tonight.

Winds will remain below SCA criteria through the remainder of
the weekend. With an easterly swell component lingering, ocean
seas should remain close to 4 ft through Sunday.

Sub-SCA conditions continue on Monday with light winds. However,
deepening low pressure will approach from the SW Monday into
Monday night, passing to the south of the waters on Tuesday. NE
winds will ramp up Monday night with the chance of a northerly
gale developing on the ocean waters Tuesday. Elsewhere, SCA
conditions can be expected with SCA all waters Tuesday night
into Wednesday due to a strong W/NW flow behind the low.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flooding for today`s high tide cycle has ended.
Water levels will remain elevated this weekend due to high
astronomical tides and easterly ocean swell promoting tidal
piling. Therefore multiple rounds of minor to locally moderate
flooding are still possible into early next week, especially
with a storm passing nearby Mon night-Tue when astronomical
tides will be at their peak.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/JC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG