000
FXUS61 KOKX 131335
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
835 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure near the Delmarva will pass south of
Long Island this morning, and then well out to sea this
afternoon into tonight. High pressure will then build in from
the west through Thursday before an Alberta Clipper low passes
through Thursday night into Friday. A series of weak lows may
pass across during the weekend before high pressure returns
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
*Winter Storm Warnings remain up across the entire forecast
 area.

*Adjusted snowfall totals across the board with storm totals
 around 8-10 inland and 6-9 inches near the coast. Locally
 higher amounts.

Impressive snow banding has been occurring with strong mid level
frontogenesis this morning. We have been receiving reports in
Orange County around 8 inches and seeing reports into CT 4-6" in
interior S CT. Have bumped totals back up in this corridor, but
also note the heaviest banding should begin to sag southeastward
this morning with rates dropping off inland in the next few
hours.

Elsewhere, made some minor adjustments up with the overall
totals remaining similar except indicating some enhanced totals
across Long Island as banding likely persists a few hours longer
than places further N&W. A general 6-8 inches looks likely with
locally higher amounts due to the banding.

Snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour are expected through midday for
much of the area, but rates should be coming down inland in the
next few hours.

This will be a quick moving storm that rapidly deepens while
passing south of LI this morning. The forecast areas resides in
a favorable zone for heavy banded snow with the 50h and 80h
lows passing to the south creating deformation/frontogenesis
across the area.

Snow ends from west to east this afternoon and shuts down
completely across far eastern areas by early this evening.
Temperatures at the height of the storm will right around
freezing, then may warm a bit in the afternoon as the snow comes
to an end.

With the southward trend of the storm track, winds have also
backed off a bit, but still see the potential of NE-N gusts of
20 to 30 mph, highest along the coast. A few higher gusts will
be possible across LI.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
NW winds on the backside of the low will gradually subside
tonight as the low pulls away out into the Atlantic with
clearing skies. Lows will be close to normal, in the 20s.

High pressure will gradually build toward the eastern seaboard
on Wednesday. NW winds on Wednesday will gust up to 30 mph. The
ridge axis will be over the area Wednesday night before
shifting offshore on Thursday. Temperatures during this time
will average several degrees below normal with highs in the 30s
Wednesday and lows Wednesday night in the upper teens inland
and 20s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No major changes have been made to the long term Wednesday
through early next week.

Key Points:

* Temperatures look to be below normal through the weekend
  before a slight warming trend early next week.

* A fast moving clipper system passes across the northeast
  Thursday night followed by another potential fast moving
  system early in the weekend.

A fast moving Alberta Clipper low continues to be signaled on
the guidance for Thursday night. The latest consensus takes the
surface low north of our area, which introduces slightly warmer
air. Moisture is still limited, but there is a brief window
Thursday night for enough lift to raise PoPs to high chance. NBM
precip probabilities continue support predominately snow
showers inland, but mainly rain with some wet snow mixed in
towards the coast. If the low were to trend further south,
colder air and higher chances of a period of snow showers could
occur across the entire area. This is a fast moving system which
limits the amount of precip that could fall.

High pressure briefly returns Friday before modeling diverges
Friday night into the weekend. Another fast moving northern
stream shortwave approaches and could bring another clipper type
low. It is beginning to look like the northern stream will be
more suppressive and force any southern energy well south of the
area. It is still about 6 days out so the evolution could still
change. PoPs on the model consensus remain low with just a
chance of snow showers Friday night into Saturday. Uncertainty
increases further on Sunday as there could be another piece of
northern stream energy passing through, but moisture right now
looks very limited. High pressure may return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Significant winter storm to impact the terminals today.

Low pressure passes south of the area this morning, then moves east
this afternoon and evening.

Conditions continue to deteriorate this morning with conditions
now IFR. Snow is expected to fall through the early afternoon,
and will be heavy at times during the morning with VLIFR
visibilities. The snow tapers in the afternoon, with dry
conditions and VFR returning by late afternoon.

One change in the forecast is the strength of the winds. With the
low tracking slightly further south, wind speeds will be reduced.
Expect winds to increase this morning with the strongest winds
occurring at the southern coast with sustained winds around
20kt and gusts 25-28kt. Winds will be from the NE, then N.
Winds back toward the NW late this afternoon with gust still
20-25kt. Gusts may end for a short period late this evening and
part of the overnight before re-developing towards daybreak
Wednesday.

Forecast Airport Snowfall Totals:

All terminals except KSWF: 5-8 inches with locally higher amounts

KSWF: 3-6 inches

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed for changing flight categories and to
fine tune the precip ending times. Wind gusts may be occasionally
higher than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday and Wednesday night...VFR. NW winds G20-25kt during
the nighttime and around 30kt daytime Wed.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night: Chance of MVFR and snow showers or mixed rain/snow
showers. NW winds G25kt late.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G25-30kt.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gales Warning continues for the ocean waters today as NE winds
back around to the N as deepening low pressure passes to the
south of the waters. SCA elsewhere. Winds have been adjusted
slightly downward from previous forecasts as the low track has
trended southward. Winds on the waters will weaken late this
afternoon into tonight with SCA cond continuing mainly on the
ocean.

A steepening pressure gradient Wednesday will lead to SCA
conditions on all waters with potential for marginal gale force
gusts on the ocean. Winds begin to weaken on the waters
Wednesday night, falling below SCA levels Thursday before
potentially reach SCA levels Thursday night into Friday. Ocean
seas will be elevated through Wednesday night before briefly
subsiding below 5 ft Thursday. Elevated seas are briefly
possible Friday but should be below SCA levels next Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
* Widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding with
  the Tuesday morning/midday high tides.

* Minor coastal flooding likely Tuesday Night for the south
  shore of Nassau County and coastal Westchester and Fairfield

Forecast is based on 50th percentile Stevens NYHOPS, ETSS, and
ESTOFS blend guidance, which tends to do well with these NE to N
system. PETSS guidance appears to be too high based on this
setup.

Winds quickly ramp up to NE gales early Tuesday morning,
backing to the N through the time of high tide. Widespread
moderate flooding (2 to 2 1/2 ft agl) expected for southern
Nassau Tue AM, with widespread minor elsewhere. Locally moderate
coastal flood impacts possible for Jamaica Bay and SW Suffolk
due to tidal piling accentuated on north facing shores, as well
as north facing shorelines of LI and twin forks due to 2 to 4
ft wave actions.

Timing of a wind shift from NE to N on Tuesday brings some
uncertainty on how quickly some drainage help could occur as
well as the amount of time the north shore of Long Island is
exposed to a more direct onshore flow.

For the ocean beach front, 3 to 6 ft breaking surf will likely
cause beach flooding and beach escarpment during the morning
and night high tides. Dune erosion impacts area expected to be
localized and minor.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     CTZ005>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EST this
     afternoon for CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     CTZ011-012.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EST this
     afternoon for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ072-074-075-
     178.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ079>081.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ179.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...