000
FXUS61 KOKX 131739
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1239 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure near the Delmarva will pass south of
Long Island this morning, and then well out to sea this
afternoon into tonight. High pressure will then build in from
the west through Thursday before an Alberta Clipper low passes
through Thursday night into Friday. A series of weak lows may
pass across during the weekend before high pressure returns
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winter storm will begin moving away from the region this
afternoon. Have dropped the Warning where snow has ended across
Orange, Rockland, Putnam, Passaic, W Bergen, W Essex, and W
Union Counties.

Deepening low pressure is rapidly moving near the 40N/70W
benchmark early this afternoon. The remaining snow across the
region is coming from the deformation axis that will swing
across in the next few hours.

Snow will end in the NYC metro/Hudson River corridor by 1pm and
should translate east across LI and CT through 3 pm. Additional
bands of snow could put down another 1-2 inches with locally
higher amounts across Long Island and CT.

A few gusts 30-35 mph possible this afternoon near the coast,
but gusts are mainly 20-25 mph. A few tree branches or limbs
could come down due to the weight of the wet snow. Scattered
power outages are possible.

Clouds will begin to thin west this afternoon and then make its
way east by evening. Some partial clearing is possible late at
least from the city west. Temperatures likely reach the middle
30s this afternoon after the snow ends.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Will likely issue an SPS with the afternoon package to
highlight lingering slick roads overnight and black ice on any
untreated roads due to temperatures falling below freezing.

NW winds on the backside of the low will gradually subside
tonight as the low pulls away out into the Atlantic with
clearing skies. Lows will be close to normal, in the 20s.

High pressure will gradually build toward the eastern seaboard
on Wednesday. NW winds on Wednesday will gust up to 30 mph. The
ridge axis will be over the area Wednesday night before
shifting offshore on Thursday. Temperatures during this time
will average several degrees below normal with highs in the 30s
Wednesday and lows Wednesday night in the upper teens inland
and 20s elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No major changes have been made to the long term Wednesday
through early next week.

Key Points:

* Temperatures look to be below normal through the weekend
  before a slight warming trend early next week.

* A fast moving clipper system passes across the northeast
  Thursday night followed by another potential fast moving
  system early in the weekend.

A fast moving Alberta Clipper low continues to be signaled on
the guidance for Thursday night. The latest consensus takes the
surface low north of our area, which introduces slightly warmer
air. Moisture is still limited, but there is a brief window
Thursday night for enough lift to raise PoPs to high chance. NBM
precip probabilities continue support predominately snow
showers inland, but mainly rain with some wet snow mixed in
towards the coast. If the low were to trend further south,
colder air and higher chances of a period of snow showers could
occur across the entire area. This is a fast moving system which
limits the amount of precip that could fall.

High pressure briefly returns Friday before modeling diverges
Friday night into the weekend. Another fast moving northern
stream shortwave approaches and could bring another clipper type
low. It is beginning to look like the northern stream will be
more suppressive and force any southern energy well south of the
area. It is still about 6 days out so the evolution could still
change. PoPs on the model consensus remain low with just a
chance of snow showers Friday night into Saturday. Uncertainty
increases further on Sunday as there could be another piece of
northern stream energy passing through, but moisture right now
looks very limited. High pressure may return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Significant winter storm impacting terminals today.

Low pressure passes south of the area this morning, moving east
this afternoon and evening.

Mainly IFR with moderate snow into early afternoon. Heavy snow
possible thru late morning with VLIFR vsbys. The snow tapers in
the afternoon, with dry conditions and VFR returning by late
afternoon.

Increasing winds this morning, sustained around 20kt with gusts
25-28kt for coastal terminals. Winds from the NE, backing
toward the NW thru this afternoon with gusts 20-25kt. Gusts may
end for a short period late this evening and part of the
overnight before re-developing towards daybreak Wednesday.

Forecast Airport Snowfall Totals:

KEWR, KTEB, KJFK, KLGA, KHPN, KISP, KBDR, KGON: 6-8 inches with
locally higher amounts

KSWF: 8-12 inches

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories.

Wind gusts may be occasionally higher than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday and Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt during
the nighttime and around 30kt daytime Wed.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night: Chance of MVFR and snow showers or mixed rain/snow
showers. NW winds G25kt late.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G25-30kt.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gales Warning continues for the ocean waters today as NE winds
back around to the N as deepening low pressure passes to the
south of the waters. SCA elsewhere. Winds on the waters will
weaken late this afternoon into tonight with SCA cond continuing
mainly on the ocean.

A steepening pressure gradient Wednesday will lead to SCA
conditions on all waters with potential for marginal gale force
gusts on the ocean. Winds begin to weaken on the waters
Wednesday night, falling below SCA levels Thursday before
potentially reach SCA levels Thursday night into Friday. Ocean
seas will be elevated through Wednesday night before briefly
subsiding below 5 ft Thursday. Elevated seas are briefly
possible Friday but should be below SCA levels next Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
* Widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding with the
  early afternoon high tides.

* One more round of minor coastal flooding tonight for the south
  shore of Nassau County, coastal Westchester and Fairfield,
  with localized minor elsewhere.

Forecast is based on 50th percentile Stevens NYHOPS, ETSS, and
ESTOFS blend guidance, which tends to do well with these NE to N
system.

Minor to moderate flooding (2 to 2 1/2 ft agl) for southern
Nassau subsiding this afternoon, with widespread minor flooding
for LI Sounds and eastern bays of LI into this afternoon.
Locally moderate across north facing shorelines of LI and twin
forks due to 2 to 4 ft wave action.

For the ocean beach front, 3 to 6 ft breaking surf will likely
cause beach flooding and beach escarpment during tonight high
tides. Dune erosion impacts area expected to be localized and
minor.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     CTZ005>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ070>075-078>081-176>179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ079>081.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ179.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ006-
     104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS/DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...