000
FXUS61 KOKX 131831
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
131 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure near the Delmarva will pass south of
Long Island this morning, and then well out to sea this
afternoon into tonight. High pressure will then build in from
the west through Thursday before an Alberta Clipper low passes
through Thursday night into Friday. A series of weak lows may
pass across during the weekend before high pressure returns
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winter storm continues to pull away from the region. The only
warnings that remain are for eastern Long Island and SE CT,
which will be dropped once the snow ends.

A 978 mb low is rapidly moving near the 40N/70W benchmark early
this afternoon. The remaining snow across the region is coming
from the deformation axis that will swing across in the next few
hours.

Lingering snow bands across eastern Long Island and SE CT could
put down another inch, possibly 2 in some localized areas.

A few gusts 30-35 mph possible this afternoon near the coast,
but gusts are mainly 20-25 mph. A few tree branches or limbs
could come down due to the weight of the wet snow. Scattered
power outages are possible.

Clouds will begin to thin west this afternoon and then make its
way east by evening. Some partial clearing is possible late at
least from the city west. Temperatures likely reach the middle
30s this afternoon after the snow ends.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Will likely issue an SPS with the afternoon package to
highlight lingering slick roads overnight and black ice on any
untreated roads due to temperatures falling below freezing.

NW winds on the backside of the low will gradually subside
tonight as the low pulls away out into the Atlantic with
clearing skies. Lows will be close to normal, in the 20s.

High pressure will gradually build toward the eastern seaboard
on Wednesday. NW winds on Wednesday will gust up to 30 mph. The
ridge axis will be over the area Wednesday night before
shifting offshore on Thursday. Temperatures during this time
will average several degrees below normal with highs in the 30s
Wednesday and lows Wednesday night in the upper teens inland
and 20s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No major changes have been made to the long term Wednesday
through early next week.

Key Points:

* Temperatures look to be below normal through the weekend
  before a slight warming trend early next week.

* A fast moving clipper system passes across the northeast
  Thursday night followed by another potential fast moving
  system early in the weekend.

A fast moving Alberta Clipper low continues to be signaled on
the guidance for Thursday night. The latest consensus takes the
surface low north of our area, which introduces slightly warmer
air. Moisture is still limited, but there is a brief window
Thursday night for enough lift to raise PoPs to high chance. NBM
precip probabilities continue support predominately snow
showers inland, but mainly rain with some wet snow mixed in
towards the coast. If the low were to trend further south,
colder air and higher chances of a period of snow showers could
occur across the entire area. This is a fast moving system which
limits the amount of precip that could fall.

High pressure briefly returns Friday before modeling diverges
Friday night into the weekend. Another fast moving northern
stream shortwave approaches and could bring another clipper type
low. It is beginning to look like the northern stream will be
more suppressive and force any southern energy well south of the
area. It is still about 6 days out so the evolution could still
change. PoPs on the model consensus remain low with just a
chance of snow showers Friday night into Saturday. Uncertainty
increases further on Sunday as there could be another piece of
northern stream energy passing through, but moisture right now
looks very limited. High pressure may return early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Significant winter storm impacting terminals this afternoon.

Low pressure moves east of the region thru this evening.

Snow ending from west to east this afternoon with IFR conditions
quickly improving to VFR by 21Z for most terminals.

Northerly winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt for coastal terminals,
backing NW thru this afternoon. Gusts may become more occasional
this evening and tonight before re-developing overnight. NW flow
continues with speeds 15-20 kt, gusts toward 30 kt much of
Wednesday.

Forecast Airport Snowfall Totals:

KEWR, KTEB, KJFK, KLGA, KHPN, KISP, KBDR, KGON: 5-8 inches with
locally higher amounts.

KSWF: 8-12 inches

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories. Timing of
improvement this afternoon may be off by an hour or so.

Wind gusts may be occasionally higher than forecast.

Isolated gusts to 35 kt on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday and Wednesday night: VFR. NW gusts around 30 kt into
early evening, lowering overnight.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night: Chance of MVFR and snow showers or mixed rain/snow
showers. NW winds G25kt late.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G25-30kt.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gales Warning continues for the ocean waters today as NE winds
back around to the N as deepening low pressure passes to the
south of the waters. SCA elsewhere. Winds on the waters will
weaken late this afternoon into tonight with SCA cond continuing
mainly on the ocean.

A steepening pressure gradient Wednesday will lead to SCA
conditions on all waters with potential for marginal gale force
gusts on the ocean. Winds begin to weaken on the waters
Wednesday night, falling below SCA levels Thursday before
potentially reach SCA levels Thursday night into Friday. Ocean
seas will be elevated through Wednesday night before briefly
subsiding below 5 ft Thursday. Elevated seas are briefly
possible Friday but should be below SCA levels next Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
* Widespread minor to locally moderate coastal flooding with the
  early afternoon high tides.

* One more round of minor coastal flooding tonight for the south
  shore of Nassau County, coastal Westchester and Fairfield,
  with localized minor elsewhere.

Forecast is based on 50th percentile Stevens NYHOPS, ETSS, and
ESTOFS blend guidance, which tends to do well with these NE to N
system.

Minor to moderate flooding (2 to 2 1/2 ft agl) for southern
Nassau subsiding this afternoon, with widespread minor flooding
for LI Sounds and eastern bays of LI into this afternoon.
Locally moderate across north facing shorelines of LI and twin
forks due to 2 to 4 ft wave action.

For the ocean beach front, 3 to 6 ft breaking surf will likely
cause beach flooding and beach escarpment during tonight high
tides. Dune erosion impacts area expected to be localized and
minor.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ008-
     010>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     CTZ009>012.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for CTZ009.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ078>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ079>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS/DW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...