000
FXUS61 KOKX 132051
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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The winter storm will continue pulling away from the east coast
tonight. High pressure will then build in from the west through
Thursday before an Alberta Clipper low passes through Thursday
night into Friday. A series of lows may pass across the area
this weekend. High pressure returns for early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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All warnings have been cancelled as the winter storm continues
to pull away from the region. Satellite imagery has been showing
some improving sky conditions as drier air begins to work into
the area from the NW. Clouds should continue to clear tonight,
but some lingering stratocu is possible at least for the first
half of the night.
Winds will drop off but may not completely decouple so not
anticipating ideal radiational cooling with a fresh snow pack.
However, colder air advects into the area with NW flow between
the departing storm and building high pressure to our west. Lows
will be in the lower 20s inland to the middle 20s most
elsewhere. The NYC metro may only fall into the upper 20s.
A special weather statement has been issued for potential of icy
conditions on roads tonight into early Wednesday morning from
any snow melt or standing water, especially on untreated
surfaces.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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No significant changes made to the forecast Wednesday into
Wednesday night. High pressure builds toward the eastern
seaboard on Wednesday. The upper ridge axis will be over the
area late Wednesday into Wednesday night before shifting
offshore by Thursday. NW winds on Wednesday will gust up to 30
mph. Highs on Wednesday will only be in the middle 30s, several
degrees below normal. The combination of the gusty winds and
cool temperatures will make it feel like it is in the teens in
the morning and lower 20s in the afternoon. Sufficient sunshine
will help with snow melt during the day time. Winds weaken
Wednesday night, but NW flow and lingering snowpack support lows
in the upper teens inland and lower to middle 20s elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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An active weather pattern remains for the long term forecast
period. Surveying some large scale numerical weather prediction
models last two runs with their surface mass fields conveys
high and low pressure movements as well as other noted above
surface features as stated below.
There will be a ridge of high pressure across the area on
Thursday, which will move offshore in the afternoon into early
evening. An Alberta Clipper low will then move across Thursday
night into early Friday. This is forecast to bring a light
accumulation of snow, potentially up to a few inches.
Temperatures forecast colder than NBM for Thursday, using
more MOS but will be a few degrees warmer than the previous day
with some weak warm air advection with low level SW flow. Then
models appear to be coherent with strong cold air advection
Thursday night into Friday, as the center of the clipper low
strengthens as it passes northeast of the region.
For Friday into Saturday, this low moves to southeast of
Canadian Maritimes with another low moving into the Carolinas.
For Saturday through Saturday night, the Carolinas low moves out
into the Atlantic with another one approaching from the Great
Lakes.
The low pressure wave from the Carolinas shows a more northward
trend in the ECMWF last two model runs. Both GFS and ECMWF show
more precipitation with this low moving across the region
compared to the Canadian model. The timing of precipitation
would be Friday night into Saturday and again, the airmass will
be cold enough for this precipitation to be in the form of snow.
Potentially, this could be another light snow event with
perhaps up to a few inches of snow for parts of the region.
The Great Lakes low approaches Sunday and moves across the
region Sunday night. This third low of the long term period
looks to have the least moisture associated with it. As a
result, the forecast remains dry for this time period without
much in the way of clouds. The mid level PVA with the trough and
associated energy are shown to stay well north of the region.
High pressure from SE Canada builds in early next week. Dry
weather will continue.
Daytime temperatures overall trend from slightly below normal
Thursday through the weekend to near normal for early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Low pressure passes east of the region thru this evening. High
pressure builds in Wednesday.
Conditions have quickly improved to VFR as the snow tapered, and
remains VFR thru the TAF period.
NW winds 10-15 kt gusts 20 kt into this evening. Gusts may become
more occasional tonight before redeveloping overnight toward 6Z.
Speeds increase to 15-20 kt, gusts up to 30 kt thru Wednesday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind gusts may be occasionally higher than forecast.
Isolated gusts to 35 kt on Wednesday.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday afternoon and night: VFR. NW gusts around 30 kt into early
evening, lowering overnight.
Thursday: VFR.
Thursday night: Chance of MVFR and snow showers or mixed rain/snow
showers. NW winds G25kt late.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G25-30kt.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow showers.
Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Winter storm continues to pull away from the waters this
evening. Winds will briefly weaken this evening before
increasing again late tonight through Wednesday. Have converted
the gale warning on the ocean to a small craft advisory and will
let it run through Wednesday night. There is a chance for a few
gale gusts on the ocean, but it should be occasional so have
held off on any gale warning for Wednesday. Winds will
gradually weaken Wednesday night, but seas remain elevated. On
the non-ocean waters, an SCA is in effect from late tonight
through Wednesday night. Winds will weaken through Wednesday
night, but felt it is better to let it go through early Thursday
in case winds are slower to weaken.
Sub-SCA conditions are forecast Thursday. Widespread SCA wind
gusts forecast Thursday night into Friday with possible gales
on the ocean. Ocean seas are also forecast to build to SCA
levels Thursday night into Friday. Friday night, briefly below
SCA for the forecast waters but Moriches to Montauk zone could
have some 5 ft seas early evening. SCA level wind gusts forecast
to return to the waters this weekend, with ocean seas also
rising up to SCA levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic issues expected through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Coastal flood threat has ended with this afternoon high tide.
Forecast fell on the low end of range across much of LI Sound
and E LI with earlier transition to N/NW winds.
Forecast for tonight is based on 50th percentile Stevens
NYHOPS, ETSS, and ESTOFS blend guidance. Combination of higher
astronomical tide tonight, and residual surge as NW flow
weakens, will result in one more round of minor coastal
flooding tonight for the south shore of Nassau County and
coastal Westchester and Fairfield tonight, with localized minor
elsewhere along the southern and eastern bays of LI, and NY/NJ
Harbor
For the ocean beach front, 3 to 6 ft breaking surf will likely
cause some beach flooding and beach escarpment during tonight
high tides. Dune erosion impacts area expected to be localized
and minor.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST
Wednesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday
for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JM/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...