000
FXUS61 KOKX 140330
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1030 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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The winter storm will continue pulling away from the east coast
overnight. High pressure will then build in from the west
through Thursday before an Alberta Clipper low passes through
Thursday night into Friday. A series of lows may pass across the
area this weekend. High pressure returns for early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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For this update just adjusted PoPs up a touch across far north
and northwestern zones for slight chance snow showers for a
portion of the overnight with reflectivity higher than
previously progged just upstream to the immediate NW. Mid
levels from large scale numerical weather prediction models
depict a shortwave moving across early but a lack of moisture
from increasing westerly atmospheric flow will limit
precipitation further east and to just flurries and light snow
showers across northern and northwestern most zones.

Otherwise, rest of forecast on track.

Winds will drop off but likely don`t completely decouple in many
spots, so not anticipating ideal radiational cooling with a
fresh snow pack. However, colder air advects into the area with
NW flow between the departing storm and building high pressure
to our west. Lows will be in the lower 20s inland to the middle
20s most elsewhere. The NYC metro may only fall into the upper
20s.

A special weather statement has been issued for potential of icy
conditions on roads overnight into early Wednesday morning from
any snow melt or standing water, especially on untreated
surfaces.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
No significant changes made to the forecast Wednesday into
Wednesday night. High pressure builds toward the eastern
seaboard on Wednesday. The upper ridge axis will be over the
area late Wednesday into Wednesday night before shifting
offshore by Thursday. NW winds on Wednesday will gust up to 30
mph. Highs on Wednesday will only be in the middle 30s, several
degrees below normal. The combination of the gusty winds and
cool temperatures will make it feel like it is in the teens in
the morning and lower 20s in the afternoon. Sufficient sunshine
will help with snow melt during the day time. Winds weaken
Wednesday night, but NW flow and lingering snowpack support lows
in the upper teens inland and lower to middle 20s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active weather pattern remains for the long term forecast
period. Upper level jet analysis from some large scale numerical
weather prediction models depicts strong jet south of the
region. This jet moves northward and over the local region
Friday into the weekend before exiting east early next week as
it appears to be phasing with northern upper level jet.

Surveying some large scale numerical weather prediction
models last two runs with their surface mass fields conveys
high and low pressure movements as well as other noted above
surface features as stated below.

There will be a ridge of high pressure across the area on
Thursday, which will move offshore in the afternoon into early
evening. An Alberta Clipper low will then move across Thursday
night into early Friday. This is forecast to bring a light
accumulation of snow, potentially up to a few inches.

Temperatures forecast colder than NBM for Thursday, using
more MOS but will be a few degrees warmer than the previous day
with some weak warm air advection with low level SW flow. Then
models appear to be coherent with strong cold air advection
Thursday night into Friday, as the center of the clipper low
strengthens as it passes northeast of the region.

For Friday into Saturday, this low moves to southeast of
Canadian Maritimes with another low moving into the Carolinas.
For Saturday through Saturday night, the Carolinas low moves out
into the Atlantic with another one approaching from the Great
Lakes.

The low pressure wave from the Carolinas shows a more northward
trend in the ECMWF last two model runs. Both GFS and ECMWF show
more precipitation with this low moving across the region
compared to the Canadian model. The timing of precipitation
would be Friday night into Saturday and again, the airmass will
be cold enough for this precipitation to be in the form of snow.
Potentially, this could be another light snow event with
perhaps up to a few inches of snow for parts of the region.

The Great Lakes low approaches Sunday and moves across the
region Sunday night. This third low of the long term period
looks to have the least moisture associated with it. As a
result, the forecast remains dry for this time period without
much in the way of clouds. The mid level PVA with the trough and
associated energy are shown to stay well north of the region.

High pressure from SE Canada builds in early next week. Dry
weather will continue.

Daytime temperatures overall trend from slightly below normal
Thursday through the weekend to near normal for early next week.

Uncertainty with the long term with individual low pressure
systems will likely make for some changes in terms of
precipitation amounts and precipitation timing in subsequent
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A weakening cold front / low pressure trough pivots through late in
the overnight, followed by building high pressure Wednesday into
Wednesday evening.

VFR thru the TAF period.

WNW winds will be lighter through the evening, with only the city
terminals having marginal gusts of 15 to 20 kt. Gusts redevelop
overnight towards 6-8Z. Sustained winds increase to 15 kt into the
morning push with gusts of 20 to 25 kt. Sustained winds peak at 15
to 20 kt for the day Wednesday, with gusts up to 30 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated gusts to 35 kt possible on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR. NW gusts to around 20 kt into the early
evening, with the winds dimishing further overnight.

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night: Chance of MVFR and snow showers or mixed rain/snow
showers. NW winds G25kt late.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G25-30kt.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow showers.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will briefly weaken this evening before increasing again
late tonight through Wednesday. Small craft advisory remains
running through Wednesday night. There is a chance for a few
gale gusts on the ocean, but it should be occasional so have
held off on any gale warning for Wednesday. Winds will gradually
weaken Wednesday night, but seas remain elevated. On the non-
ocean waters, an SCA is in effect from late tonight through
Wednesday night. Winds will weaken through Wednesday night, but
felt it is better to let it go through early Thursday in case
winds are slower to weaken.

Sub-SCA conditions are forecast Thursday. Widespread SCA wind
gusts forecast Thursday night into Friday with possible gales
on the ocean. Ocean seas are also forecast to build to SCA
levels Thursday night into Friday. Friday night, briefly below
SCA for the forecast waters but Moriches to Montauk zone could
have some 5 ft seas early evening. SCA level wind gusts forecast
to return to the waters this weekend, with ocean seas also
rising up to SCA levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues expected through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood threat has ended with this afternoon high tide.
Forecast fell on the low end of range across much of LI Sound
and E LI with earlier transition to N/NW winds.

Forecast for tonight is based on 50th percentile Stevens
NYHOPS, ETSS, and ESTOFS blend guidance. Combination of higher
astronomical tide tonight, and residual surge as NW flow
weakens, will result in one more round of minor coastal
flooding tonight for the south shore of Nassau County and
coastal Westchester and Fairfield tonight, with localized minor
elsewhere along the southern and eastern bays of LI, and NY/NJ
Harbor

For the ocean beach front, 3 to 6 ft breaking surf will likely
cause some beach flooding and beach escarpment during tonight
high tides. Dune erosion impacts area expected to be localized
and minor.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JM/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...