000
FXUS61 KOKX 141127
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
627 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through Thursday before an
Alberta Clipper low passes through late Thursday evening into
Thursday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds into the area
on Friday. Low pressure passes to the south Friday night into
Saturday, with another low passing to the north Sunday. High
pressure over the region Monday moves off shore Monday night into
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track with just minor adjustments to reflect current
observations. There may be a light snow shower or flurry very
early this morning prior to sunrise. Otherwise, surface high
pressure and upper level ridging build into the region today.
The main story today will be the gusty NW winds, with speeds
between 20 and 30 mph. Highs will only be in the 30s, but the
gusty wind will make it feel about 10 degrees colder. Sky
conditions will be mostly sunny, which should help melt some of
the recent snow.
As the high builds over the region tonight, the pressure gradient
will begin to relax a bit, allowing winds to diminish, but winds
will still remain gusty through at least the first half of the
overnight. Lows tonight fall into the teens and 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The short term starts off with a ridge of high pressure over the
region. This ridge will move offshore during the day Thursday. This
will allow a quick upper level shortwave/Alberta clipper low to pass
north of the region late Thursday evening and Thursday night. With
the low passing to the north, highest POPs will be across the
northern half of the CWA (Lower Hudson Valley and CT) where the best
chances for some light snow will occur. Further south, POPs will be
capped a chance, where either light snow or light rain and snow will
be possible. Most of the moisture associated with this system falls
north of the CWA, lower QPF totals for our area. Snowfall amounts
with this storm will generally remain less than an inch, however an
isolated amount between 1-2 inches can not be ruled out.
Drier conditions are expected for Friday, however The gradient
tightens once again behind the departing low, resulting in another
gusty day. NW winds are expected to gust into the 30 mph range.
Highs both Thursday and Friday will climb into the 30s and lower
40s, with overnight lows Thursday night falling into the 20s and
lower 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active pattern dominates the long term period as a longwave
eastern trough weakens and slowly lifts into Canada early next week.
Meanwhile a series of shortwaves will move through the trough as
associated surface lows pass near the region. One surface low moves
to the south Friday night into Saturday and may bring a light
accumulation of snow to the region. There is some uncertainty with
the track and if the low moves farther south and off the mid
Atlantic coast, as opposed to the Delmarva, the area may remain dry.
Another low south tracks through the eastern Great Lakes and north
of the region Sunday and Sunday night. At this time the low is to
the north that no precipitation is expected. Yet another northern
stream low moves to the north early next week and may bring a cold
front through the region.
Temperatures will be near seasonal levels through the weekend with a
slight warming trend early next week as surface high pressure moves
off shore and a return flow sets up.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weakening cold front / low pressure trough pivots through
early this morning, followed by building high pressure through
this evening. The high remains centered west of the region
tonight.
VFR thru the TAF period.
Winds will be NW around 310 magnetic through the day, with gusts
frequently 25 to 30 kt, with occasional gusts 30 to 35 kt.
Sustained gusts of 20 to 25 kt. Sustained winds may be 20 to 25
kt at times.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts to 35 kt possible through late afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR during the day. MVFR, IFR possible, at night with
snow showers, mixed rain/snow showers along the coast. W/SW
winds G25kt at night.
Friday: VFR. NW winds 15-20G25-30kt.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow.
Sunday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft advisories remain up for all the area waters through
tonight as winds and seas remain elevated. There is a chance for a
few gale gusts on the ocean, but it should be occasional so have
held off on any gale warning. Winds will gradually weaken Wednesday
night, but seas remain elevated. Winds may weaken slightly earlier
on some of the non-ocean waters tonight, however wont make any
changes to the end time in case some of the winds are slower to
weaken than forecast.
Sub-SCA conditions are forecast Thursday. Widespread SCA wind gusts
are forecast Thursday night into Friday with possible gales on the
ocean. Ocean seas are also forecast to build to SCA levels Thursday
night into Friday.
Small craft advisory conditions are possible on the ocean waters
east of Moriches Inlet early Friday evening as a deepening low moves
well east of the northeast coast. Otherwise, winds and seas will be
below SCA levels on all the waters through early Saturday. Small
craft conditions are possible on the ocean waters late Saturday, and
then on the ocean and across the eastern Long Island Sound, and Long
Island bays Saturday night as another low passes to the south. There
is some uncertainty with the track of the low, and if the low tracks
farther to the south, conditions may be under advisory levels. SCA
conditions are possible on all the forecast waters Sunday and Sunday
night as another low tracks to the north.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET