discussion on 2024-02-14

000
FXUS61 KOKX 150022
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
722 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds in from the west through Thursday before a
quick-moving low passes just north of the region Thursday night.
Weak high pressure briefly returns on Friday, before low pressure
approaches from the south and west Friday night. This low
pressure area passes southeast of Long Island Saturday. Another
weak low approaches Sunday and then passes well north of the
region Sunday night. High pressure returns for early next week
before moving offshore by midweek.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast mainly on track. Dewpoints were running a little less
than forecast, so lowered those slightly this evening. Otherwise,
no other remarkable changes made.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure gradually build over
the region through tonight. The relaxing pressure gradient will
allow winds to gradually diminish, though likely remaining a bit
gusty at least the first half of the night.

With the high pressure, skies remain clear tonight. Temperatures
will likely be the coldest of the month so far, though this
isn`t saying too much given the mild pattern to start. Overnight
lows bottom out in the teens inland and 20s along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure moves over the region Thursday, shifting
offshore late in the day. A clipper low dives out of the Great
Lakes behind it, passing to the north in the evening and overnight.
While best forcing and moisture with this quick moving system
remains well to the north, a few scattered snow showers or a brief
period of light snow is possible as it does so, mainly across
interior CT. QPF is light, progged at or under a tenth of an
inch, so any potential accumulations will be limited. Still,
a coating up to an inch may be added to the lingering snowpack
in some areas well inland. Along the coast, temperatures in the
mid 30s may allow spotty rain or snow showers, though coverage
and impacts are likely to be limited.

Otherwise, conditions dry into Friday morning as weak surface high
pressure briefly builds in to end the workweek. The re tightened
pressure gradient behind the low will increase the flow once
again, with gusts 25-30 mph likely lingering into the afternoon.
Sunshine prevails as forecast highs top out within a few
degrees of 40, or about normal for mid February.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --An active weather pattern remains for the weekend. Surveying some
large scale numerical weather prediction models with their surface
mass fields conveys high and low pressure movements as well as other
noted above surface features as stated below.

Nearly a 200kt upper level westerly jet stays near Long Island to
perhaps a few hundred miles offshore south to southeast of Long
Island for Friday night through Sunday night. The strong upper jet
shifts well east of the area for early to mid next week.

For Friday night, a low moves into the mid-Atlantic. For Saturday
through Saturday night, this low moves out into the Atlantic with
another one approaching from the Great Lakes. The other low pressure
area from the Great Lakes will approach Sunday and move well
north of the region Sunday night.

Large scale numerical weather prediction model guidances depicts a
coherent solution will the first wave of low pressure. The consensus
of the models convey the center of low pressure moving east of
Delaware just out into the Atlantic early Saturday with the northern
fringe of its associated precipitation area to the north moving
across the local area. In the mid levels, a longwave trough
approaches with its positive vorticity advection traversing the area
late Friday night into early Saturday. In the upper levels, a strong
westerly jet streak will be south of the area with its left front
quad not too far away, so there will be more vertical forcing.

Coastal sections of NE NJ, NYC and Long Island appear to have the
higher likelihood of seeing precipitation out of this low. Went
above NBM POPs for late Friday night into early Saturday with
some likely POPs along the coast. The main timeframe for the
precipitation will be late Friday night through early Saturday
afternoon.

The airmass will be cold enough for this precipitation to be in the
form of snow. Potentially, this could be another light snow event
with perhaps up to a few inches of snow for parts of the region if
subsequent forecasts trend farther north with the area of low
pressure. Right now, forecast has around 1 inch of snow with
relatively highest amounts across the coastal sections.

For Saturday mid to late afternoon, and into Saturday night, the
base of the mid level trough moves across the area. The surface low
will be exiting well east out into the Atlantic. Brief high pressure
at the surface builds in Saturday night into early Sunday. Dry
conditions return by Saturday night and continue for the rest of
the weekend.

The Great Lakes low approaches Sunday and moves well north of the
local region Sunday night. This low looks to have minimal moisture
associated with it with much westerly flow throughout the
troposphere. As a result, the forecast remains dry for this time
period without much in the way of clouds. The mid level positive
vorticity advection with the trough and associated energy are shown
to stay well north of the region.

High pressure from SE Canada builds in early next week. Quasi-zonal
mid level flow early next week transitions to more of a trough
pattern for the middle of next week. Dry weather is forecast to
continue.

Daytime temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees below
normal this weekend and then trend to more above normal values
from early towards the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds tonight and moves across Thursday. Low pressure
passing to the north Thursday evening drags a frontal boundary
through.

VFR through the day Thursday, with a period of MVFR ceilings for the
36 hr TAF terminals after 00z Friday.

Winds diminish tonight, then back thru the day on Thu becoming SW
towards or after 18Z. The winds back further, becoming S towards
evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty around the timing with ending of gusts tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: MVFR or lower possible just aft 0Z until 6z, with a
light wintry mix or rain possible, with light snow for KHPN and
KSWF. The winds become SW winds, G20-25kt aft 00Z, becoming W
towards and after 06z.

Friday: VFR. NW winds 15-20G25-30kt.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow.

Sunday - Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Small Craft Advisory continues for all waters through tonight
as winds and seas remain elevated. Winds gradually weaken
overnight, and conditions are expected to improve by morning.

Winds and seas increase once again late Thursday as low pressure
passes to the north. Small craft conditions return to all waters
by the evening, with gales a possibility, particularly on the
ocean and eastern LI Sound. Confidence in coverage on
widespread gales was a bit too low for a watch at this time,
though certainly possible a watch or warning could be needed.
Widespread SCA wind gusts are forecast Thursday night into
Friday with possible gales on the ocean. As winds subside
during the day, though ocean seas may remain above 5 ft into
the evening.

Friday night, briefly below SCA for the forecast waters but Fire
Island to Montauk ocean zone could have some near 5 ft seas
early evening. SCA level wind gusts forecast to return to the
waters this weekend, with ocean seas from Moriches to Montauk
also rising up to SCA levels second half of this weekend. SCA
gusts remain Monday before dropping below SCA Monday night.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues expected through early next week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JM/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR