discussion on 2024-02-15

000
FXUS61 KOKX 150601
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
101 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will build from the west through Thursday before a
quick moving low passes just north Thursday night. Weak high
pressure will briefly return on Friday before another low
approaches from the south and west Friday night. This low will
pass southeast of Long Island on Saturday. Yet another weak low
will approach on Sunday and pass well north Sunday night. High
pressure will return for early next week before moving offshore
by mid week.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast continues mainly on track as upper level ridging and
surface high pressure gradually build in overnight. The
relaxing pressure gradient will allow winds to gradually
diminish. Skies will also remain clear overnight, with
temperatures likely the coldest of the month so far, though this
isn`t saying too much given the mild pattern to start.
Overnight lows should bottom out in the teens inland and in the
20s along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure moves over the region Thursday, shifting
offshore late in the day. A clipper low dives out of the Great
Lakes behind it, passing to the north in the evening and overnight.
While best forcing and moisture with this quick moving system
remains well to the north, a few scattered snow showers or a brief
period of light snow is possible as it does so, mainly across
interior CT. QPF is light, progged at or under a tenth of an
inch, so any potential accumulations will be limited. Still,
a coating up to an inch may be added to the lingering snowpack
in some areas well inland. Along the coast, temperatures in the
mid 30s may allow spotty rain or snow showers, though coverage
and impacts are likely to be limited.

Otherwise, conditions dry into Friday morning as weak surface high
pressure briefly builds in to end the workweek. The re tightened
pressure gradient behind the low will increase the flow once
again, with gusts 25-30 mph likely lingering into the afternoon.
Sunshine prevails as forecast highs top out within a few
degrees of 40, or about normal for mid February.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An active weather pattern remains for the weekend. Surveying some
large scale numerical weather prediction models with their surface
mass fields conveys high and low pressure movements as well as other
noted above surface features as stated below.

Nearly a 200kt upper level westerly jet stays near Long Island to
perhaps a few hundred miles offshore south to southeast of Long
Island for Friday night through Sunday night. The strong upper jet
shifts well east of the area for early to mid next week.

For Friday night, a low moves into the mid-Atlantic. For Saturday
through Saturday night, this low moves out into the Atlantic with
another one approaching from the Great Lakes. The other low pressure
area from the Great Lakes will approach Sunday and move well
north of the region Sunday night.

Large scale numerical weather prediction model guidances depicts a
coherent solution will the first wave of low pressure. The consensus
of the models convey the center of low pressure moving east of
Delaware just out into the Atlantic early Saturday with the northern
fringe of its associated precipitation area to the north moving
across the local area. In the mid levels, a longwave trough
approaches with its positive vorticity advection traversing the area
late Friday night into early Saturday. In the upper levels, a strong
westerly jet streak will be south of the area with its left front
quad not too far away, so there will be more vertical forcing.

Coastal sections of NE NJ, NYC and Long Island appear to have the
higher likelihood of seeing precipitation out of this low. Went
above NBM POPs for late Friday night into early Saturday with
some likely POPs along the coast. The main timeframe for the
precipitation will be late Friday night through early Saturday
afternoon.

The airmass will be cold enough for this precipitation to be in the
form of snow. Potentially, this could be another light snow event
with perhaps up to a few inches of snow for parts of the region if
subsequent forecasts trend farther north with the area of low
pressure. Right now, forecast has around 1 inch of snow with
relatively highest amounts across the coastal sections.

For Saturday mid to late afternoon, and into Saturday night, the
base of the mid level trough moves across the area. The surface low
will be exiting well east out into the Atlantic. Brief high pressure
at the surface builds in Saturday night into early Sunday. Dry
conditions return by Saturday night and continue for the rest of
the weekend.

The Great Lakes low approaches Sunday and moves well north of the
local region Sunday night. This low looks to have minimal moisture
associated with it with much westerly flow throughout the
troposphere. As a result, the forecast remains dry for this time
period without much in the way of clouds. The mid level positive
vorticity advection with the trough and associated energy are shown
to stay well north of the region.

High pressure from SE Canada builds in early next week. Quasi-zonal
mid level flow early next week transitions to more of a trough
pattern for the middle of next week. Dry weather is forecast to
continue.

Daytime temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees below
normal this weekend and then trend to more above normal values
from early towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure builds overnight and moves across Thursday. Low
pressure passing to the north Thursday evening drags a frontal
boundary through.

VFR through today, with a period of MVFR ceilings after 00z Friday.

Winds diminish overnight, then back thru the day on Thursday
becoming SW towards or after 18Z. The winds back further,
becoming S towards evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some uncertainty around the timing of wind direction change to the
SW and S later today, may be off by 1-2 hrs.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late Thursday night: MVFR or lower possible until 6z, with a light
wintry mix or rain possible, with light snow for KHPN and KSWF. SW
winds becoming W towards and after 06z with gusts 20 to 25 kt.

Friday: VFR. NW winds 15-20G25-30kt.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow.

Sunday - Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCA continues for all waters as winds and seas remain elevated,
with some gusts just shy of gale force. Winds gradually weaken
overnight, and conditions should improve by morning.

Gale Warning remains in effect for all except the western Sound
and Harbor for Thu night into early Fri afternoon, where SCA
cond will prevail from Thu night into Fri morning.

For Friday night, cond briefly below SCA for the waters, but
some near 5 ft seas still possible on the ocean E of Fire
Island Inlet.

SCA level wind gusts forecast to return to the waters this
weekend into Mon.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No issues expected through mid next week.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for
     ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JE/DR/BG
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/DR/BG
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR