000
FXUS61 KOKX 151003
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
503 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build across from the west today before a
quick moving low passes just north tonight. Thursday night. Weak
high pressure will briefly return on Friday before another low
pressure passes off the southern Mid Atlantic coast late Friday
night into Saturday. High pressure will briefly build in for
Saturday night, then yet another low will approach on Sunday and
pass to the north Sunday night. High pressure will build in Monday
and move offshore by mid week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure sfc/aloft will slide across this morning and pass
east this afternoon, with sunny skies this morning, then
increasing clouds this afternoon.
A clipper low will then pass to the north tonight. While most of
its best moisture will pass to the north, the southern extent of
its mid and upper level forcing (mid level vort max and H3
upper jet left exit region) will move across this evening and
could produce a few snow showers especially inland and across
southern CT, where a coating of accumulation is possible, even
close to an inch in parts of across New London County in SE CT.
Temperatures in the mid 30s across parts of Long Island may
allow spotty rain or snow showers.
Winds should shift W and pick up quite a bit after the
associated sfc cold front moves through, with a few gusts 35-40
mph possible mainly along the coast and in some of the higher
interior elevations.
Temps are on the lower side of MOS guidance, with highs today in
the mid/upper 30s, and low tonight 25-30.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NW winds on Friday as the pressure gradient remains tight and
weak high pressure builds from the west will remain on the
brisk side into early afternoon, then diminish toward evening,
with high temps either side of 40 under mostly sunny skies.
Another low will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coast late
Fri night and pass well south of Long Island into early
Saturday afternoon, but perhaps still close enough to produce a
period of light snow, more so across the NYC metro area and
Long Island where an inch of accumulation appears likely.
Lows Fri night will range from the lower 30s in NYC, to near 20
in outlaying areas and in the Long Island Pine Barrens region.
Fcst highs on Sat per MOS are 35-40, but could end up remaining
in the mid 30s especially across NYC metro and Long Island where
steady light snow is more likely to fall.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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An upper longwave trough across eastern Canada and extending
into the eastern United States Saturday night will be lifting
northward into Canada through Sunday night. Another shortwave
and vort max will be rotating through the trough sending a
surface low through the Great Lakes region Sunday and to the
north of the forecast area Sunday night as a weakening cold
front moves through Monday. Near zonal flow then develops Monday
and continues into the midweek period. With the low passing to
the north and little moisture, no precipitation is expected. Dry
weather remains into midweek as surface high pressure builds
over the area and then off the northeast coast. With the high
offshore a warming trend will set up Monday night and continue
into the midweek. There is a widespread in highs and lows Monday
night through midweek, and generally leaned toward the NBM,
with a blend of the 75th percentile as temperatures trend upward
to several degrees above seasonal normals.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds overnight and moves across today. Low
pressure passing to the north this evening drags a frontal
boundary through the region. The low moves off the Maine coast
late Thursday night.
VFR through today, with a period of MVFR ceilings after 00Z
Friday.
Winds diminish overnight, then back thru the day, becoming SW
towards or after 18Z. The winds back further, becoming S
towards evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Some uncertainty around the timing of wind direction change to
the SW and S later today, may be off by 1-2 hrs.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Late tonight: MVFR or lower possible until 06Z, with a light
wintry mix or rain possible, with light snow for KHPN and KSWF.
SW winds becoming W towards and after 06z with gusts 20 to 25
kt.
Friday: VFR. NW winds 15-20G25-30kt.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR/IFR with snow.
Sunday - Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA cond on all but the harbor and wrn Sound attm, with NW flow
gusting to 25-30 kt and sea up to 6 ft, should gradually abate
through mow until mid morning. Any lull will be fairly short-
lived as winds ramp up tonight with low pressure passing to the
north. Gale force wind gusts are likely on most waters as winds
shift from SW to W, and have expanded the gale warning into the
western Sound as winds gust up to 35 kt on the open waters.
Duration and coverage of 35-kt gusts for NY Harbor was more
uncertain and issued SCA there for tonight into daytime Fri.
Conditions should improve from west to east late Fri afternoon
into Fri evening as weak high pressure briefly builds across,
then as weak low pressure passes to the south late Fri night
into daytime Sat.
SCA cond should return Sat evening to the ocean waters as the
low pulls away and high pressure builds into the area. With low
pressure passing to the north of the waters Sunday night SCA
conditions will again become possible on all the waters. Then as
high pressure returns Monday winds and seas will fall below
advisory levels across all the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through mid next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-
340.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for
ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ332-
350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday
for ANZ338.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE/MET
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET