000
FXUS61 KOKX 151858
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
158 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure moving offshore this afternoon before a quick
moving low passes just north tonight. Weak high pressure will
briefly return on Friday before another low pressure passes off
the southern Mid Atlantic coast late Friday night into Saturday.
High pressure will briefly build in for Saturday night, then
yet another low will approach on Sunday and pass to the north
Sunday night. High pressure will build in Monday and move
offshore by mid week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Clouds increasing as they move in from west to east this
afternoon. Mainly dry conditions are expected although a few
snow showers will be possible into early evening as a fast
moving low approaches the region.
This low will be deepening slightly as it goes to the NY/VT
border this evening into start of overnight. Then the low moves
to the Gulf of Maine by early Friday and deepens further to
near 995mb.
Precipitation will be mainly in the form of snow showers as the
low center traverses to our north. The associated warm front
moves across this evening and the cold front followed quickly by
an associated cold front with the occluded front passing by
to the north. Light snow amounts are forecast up to near a half
inch to 1 inch. Highest amounts relatively speaking will be
across the interior sections of the region.
The pressure gradient steepens tonight with the development of
higher westerly flow and more westerly gusts behind the cold
front. Strong cold air advection also will be occurring. Gusts
develop especially towards daybreak Friday. Forecast model
BUFKIT soundings indicate most gusts near 40 mph but some
occasional higher gusts will be possible up to near 45 to 50
mph. Higher elevations across the interior may also see
relatively higher gusts.
Coverage both temporally and spatially of gusts above 45 mph is
too low to warrant any wind advisories at this time.
The snow cover across the interior will keep interior locations
colder and allow for less efficient vertical mixing compared to
along the coast.
These winds will mix the boundary layer and keep less spatial
range of lows, mainly upper 20s to lower 30s. Sky conditions
lower overnight with dry conditions as mid level negative
vorticity advection enters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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On Friday, the low moves farther out into the Atlantic with
steep pressure gradient remaining. Gusty winds will remain in
the morning and then lessen into the afternoon as the low moves
farther away and the pressure gradient relaxes. Gusts near 40 to
45 mph early will lessen to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon.
The dry conditions continue along with mostly sunny sky
conditions with some slight ridging aloft. High temperatures
forecast are in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Another low will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coast late
Fri night and pass well south of Long Island into early
Saturday afternoon, but perhaps still close enough to produce a
period of light snow, more so across the NYC metro area and
Long Island where an inch of accumulation appears likely.
Lows Fri night will range from the lower 30s in NYC, to near 20
in outlaying areas and in the Long Island Pine Barrens region.
Fcst highs on Sat per MOS are 35-40, but could end up remaining
in the mid 30s especially across NYC metro and Long Island where
steady light snow is more likely to fall.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper longwave trough across eastern Canada and extending
into the eastern United States Saturday night will be lifting
northward into Canada through Sunday night. Another shortwave
and vort max will be rotating through the trough sending a
surface low through the Great Lakes region Sunday and to the
north of the forecast area Sunday night as a weakening cold
front moves through Monday. Near zonal flow then develops Monday
and continues into the midweek period. With the low passing to
the north and little moisture, no precipitation is expected. Dry
weather remains into midweek as surface high pressure builds
over the area and then off the northeast coast. With the high
offshore a warming trend will set up Monday night and continue
into the midweek. There is a widespread in highs and lows Monday
night through midweek, and generally leaned toward the NBM,
with a blend of the 75th percentile as temperatures trend upward
to several degrees above seasonal normals.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure moves offshore this afternoon. Low pressure will
pass to the north tonight, sending a frontal system across the
region. The low quickly moves off the New England coast late
tonight into Friday morning as high pressure builds to the west.
VFR through early this evening. Snow showers, potentially mixed
with some rain near the coast, are possible around 23/00z west
and 05/06z east. This precipitation may briefly lower conditions
to MVFR with a low potential of IFR. VFR quickly returns after
the snow showers end 03-05z.
Winds will continue backing to the SW early this afternoon and
then to the S-SSW late afternoon into the evening. Winds will
increase and there may be some gusts 20-25 kt near the coast
this evening. Behind the frontal passage, winds quickly shift
to the W and then NW overnight. Speeds increase to 15-20 kt
with gusts around 30 kt. There is a chance a few gusts 35-40 kt
09-15z. NW winds should slowly weaken into Friday afternoon
with gusts closer to 20 kt late in the day.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts this evening may be occasional at KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR.
Snow showers this evening may briefly mix with some rain. Low
chance for a brief drop to IFR in this activity.
Timing of wind shift to the W and NW overnight may be off by 1-2
hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Afternoon: VFR. NW winds 15G25kt diminishing late.
Friday Night-Saturday. MVFR or lower possible late Friday night
into Saturday morning in light snow. VFR later Saturday with NW
winds 15 kt gusting 20-25 kt.
Sunday: VFR. WSW wind gusts 25-30 kt.
Monday-Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Any lull with below SCA conditions today will be fairly short-
lived as winds ramp up tonight with low pressure passing to the
north. Gale force wind gusts are likely on most waters as winds
shift from SW to W, and have expanded the gale warning into the
western Sound as winds gust up to 35 kt on the open waters.
Duration and coverage of 35-kt gusts for NY Harbor was more
uncertain and issued SCA there for tonight into daytime Fri.
Conditions should improve from west to east late Fri afternoon
into Fri evening as weak high pressure briefly builds across,
then as weak low pressure passes to the south late Fri night
into daytime Sat.
SCA cond should return Sat evening to the ocean waters as the
low pulls away and high pressure builds into the area. With low
pressure passing to the north of the waters Sunday night SCA
conditions will again become possible on all the waters. Then as
high pressure returns Monday winds and seas will fall below
advisory levels across all the waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through mid next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday for
ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday
for ANZ338.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM/BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET