000
FXUS61 KOKX 160514
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1214 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure passing to the north tonight will drag a
cold front through the area. The area will then be in between
lows Friday, the next one is moving into the Appalachians. This
low approaches Friday night and moves southeast of Long Island
Saturday. This coastal low will continue to head away from the
area Saturday night. Another low will pass to the north Sunday
night. High pressure then builds in Monday and remains in
control through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Main area of snow showers ahead of warm front has passed to the
east of the area with lingering flurries possible over the next
couple of hours ahead of the cold front. The front passes
through quickly over the next few hours, passing eastern LI/Se
CT shortly after midnight.
Following the cold frontal passage, strong cold air advection
will occur with gusty WNW winds, becoming more frequent towards
daybreak. Forecast model BUFKIT soundings indicate most gusts
35-40 mph but some occasional higher gusts will be possible up
to near 45 to 50 mph. Higher elevations across the interior may
also see relatively higher gusts.
Coverage both temporally and spatially of gusts above 45 mph is
too low to warrant any wind advisories at this time.
These winds will mix the boundary layer and keep less spatial
range of lows, mainly upper 20s to lower 30s. Sky conditions
lower overnight with dry conditions as mid level negative
vorticity advection enters.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Friday, the low moves farther out into the Atlantic with
steep pressure gradient remaining. Gusty winds will remain in
the morning and then lessen into the afternoon as the low moves
farther away and the pressure gradient relaxes. Gusts near 40 to
45 mph early will lessen to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon.
The dry conditions continue along with mostly sunny sky conditions
Friday with some slight ridging aloft. High temperatures forecast
are in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Large scale numerical weather prediction model guidances depicts
some variations of track with the wave of low pressure Friday night
into Saturday. 12Z model runs convey a remarkable difference where
the NAM and GFS models have the low east of Virginia by 12Z Saturday
whereas the Canadian and ECMWF models have the low east of Maryland
and Delaware by 12Z Saturday. 18Z NAM has shifted farther north
compared to its 12Z run.
The vertical forcing for precipitation comes from these upper level
features. In the mid levels, a longwave trough approaches with its
embedded higher positive vorticity advection traversing the area
early Saturday. In the upper levels, a strong westerly jet streak (
around 190 kt at 250mb) will be south of the area with its left
front quad near the region during the day Saturday.
Current forecasts have for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern
Connecticut up near 1 inch snow with snow in the 1 to 2 inch
range to the south across the remainder of the forecast region.
The forecast for this snow is low to medium confidence.
Subsequent model runs may show more northward trends and as eluded
to in the SREF with some of its members, there is a chance
(currently a low chance) that snowfall totals for this event could
end up in the advisory range with snowfall totals near 3 to 4
inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Generally a quiet period in the long term with an upper level trough
over the Northeast Saturday night and a departing coastal storm at
the surface. Surface ridging will build into the area behind the
coastal storm. For Sunday, a weakening area of low pressure at the
surface approaching New England from the Great Lakes. This low
passes north of the area Sunday night. With much of the dynamics
remaining north of the area, no precipitation is expected with this
low. However, it will send a weak, dry cold front through the area
late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
The upper level trough exits the region on Monday, being replaced
with near zonal flow through Tuesday night. A weak upper level
shortwave approaches from the west late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, inducing a coastal storm off the Southeast Coast. This
storm is currently forecast to remain well offshore as the area
remains protected by the surface high pressure that is expected to
push off the New England coast Tuesday night. This high will extend
along much of the eastern seaboard through the mid-week period.
Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal through
Tuesday, then as the high pushes off the New England Coast and a
southerly flow develops, temperatures are expected to be slightly
above normal Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A fast moving cold front will pass east of KGON by 06Z. Weak
high pressure follows before another wave of low pressure passes
to the south and east late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Mainly VFR for the remainder of the night with a brief snow
shower or flurry possible. MVFR or lower then likely in light
snow moving into the NYC terminals after 06Z Saturday. There is
lower confidence of it impacting KSWF, but brief MVFR or lower
is possible.
Behind the cold front, winds quickly shift to the W and then NW
overnight. Speeds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt.
There is a chance a few gusts 35-40 kt 09-16z. NW winds should
slowly weaken into Friday afternoon with gusts closer to 20 kt
late in the day. Winds diminish to less than 10kt Friday night,
becoming N/NE at the coast and light and variable elsewhere.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts overnight may be more occasional than frequent.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Late Friday Night-Saturday. MVFR or lower possible late Friday
night into Saturday morning in light snow. VFR later Saturday
with NW wind gusts 20 kt.
Sunday: VFR. WSW wind gusts 25-30 kt.
Monday-Tuesday. VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gale Warnings in effect for all waters tonight through 1 PM EST
Friday.
Seas and winds ramp up quickly late this evening into overnight.
SCA level wind gusts this evening will rise towards gales late
this evening and more into gales overnight. The gales continue
into Friday morning and wind gusts return to SCA levels Friday
afternoon. Winds are forecast to drop below SCA levels Friday
night and remain below SCA Saturday morning before rising to SCA
levels for most waters Saturday afternoon. Ocean seas build to
SCA levels tonight and remain at SCA levels Friday and
eventually lower below SCA west to east on the ocean Friday
night. Seas are below SCA for all forecast waters Saturday. Non-
ocean waters are below SCA in the short term except for Long
Island Sound late tonight into Friday.
Winds diminish Saturday night as a coastal storm moves away
from the region. Though SCA gusts are still possible on the
western ocean zone for the first half of Saturday night. Winds
then increase to 25 to 30 kt on all waters Sunday as the
pressure gradient increases thanks to an approaching low that
will pass to the north into Monday night. Waves also quickly
build on Sunday on the ocean waters to 5 to 10 ft. Winds
diminish Sunday night, however the eastern sound and Peconic and
Gardiner`s Bays along with the ocean waters will remain at or
above 25 kt through Sunday night. Waves on the ocean diminish
during this timeframe, but remain above 5 ft on the ocean.
Sub-SCA conditions expected by Monday afternoon on all waters.
Thereafter, conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria on
all waters through mid-week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through mid next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/JP/DW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP