000
FXUS61 KOKX 161219
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
719 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Intensifying low pressure over the Gulf of Maine will move out
to sea today, allowing weak high pressure to briefly settle over
the waters this afternoon and evening. Another low moving east
across the southern Mid Atlantic region will move off the coast
late tonight and pass south of Long Island Saturday morning,
followed by high pressure building from the west into Saturday
night. Yet another low will pass to the north Sunday and Sunday
night, followed by high pressure from Monday through Wednesday.
Low pressure will approach from the west on Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Pressure gradient between the departing low and building weak
high is strong enough to support brisk conditions just shy of
advy criteria in the higher elevations and along the coast, with
W winds sustained 25-30 mph and gusting up to 40-45 mph. Winds
should drop off this afternoon as the low moves out into the
Atlantic.

Other than some lake effect clouds sneaking into northern
sections this morning, skies should be mostly sunny, with some
increasing clouds late this afternoon ahead of the next low to
affect the area. High temps will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Guidance is fairly close on details regarding the low moving E
across the TN valley late today/this evening, then emerging off
the srn Mid Atlantic coast late tonight and passing S of Long
Island Sat morning, and most likely bringing about 1/10 to 1/4
inch liquid equivalent QPF to the area, highest across NE NJ,
NYC, and western Long Island, and lowest across southern CT,
via the associated upper jet left exit region, a mid level
shortwave trough, and H7 frontogenesis/H8 theta-E advection
just south of the area.

NE NJ and NYC lie on the edge of some potential 3-inch snowfall
amts, with the greatest likelihood of these in Union County NJ
and Staten Island NY, where a winter wx advisory has been
issued. Amts of 1-2 inches have been fcst just north of there
into up into the rest of NE NJ/NYC, Rockland/Westchester/southern
Orange, and most of Long Island, with less than an inch
elsewhere. Per latest probabilistic guidance, it is still
possible for 3-inch amts to extend farther north, especially
into the tier of zones farther north covering most of NE NJ,
NYC, and most of Long Island.

Most of the snow should fall late Fri night and perhaps the
first part of daytime Sat, with only lingering light snow
thereafter. Dry cond expected for Sat night with a gusty NW
flow.

Low temps tonight should range from the lower 30s in NYC through
the 20s elsewhere, with highs on Sat in the mid or upper 30s.
Lows Sat night will range form the mid 20s in NYC to the
mid/upper teens inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Generally a quiet period is expected through the long term
period with temperatures above seasonal normals, especially
Tuesday through the end of the week. An upper level trough
across eastern Canada and the northeast will be lifting into
Canada Sunday and Monday as another shortwave rotates through
the trough Sunday and Sunday night. An associated low also
tracks to the north Sunday and Sunday night. With most of the
dynamics with the low, and little moisture the area is expected
to remain dry. A cold front with the low will be weakening and
may dissipate before moving through the region Monday. The upper
level trough will be in eastern Canada Monday as a zonal flow
sets up and remains through the week. A weak upper level
shortwave approaches from the west late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, inducing a coastal storm off the Southeast Coast.
This storm is currently forecast to remain well offshore as the
area remains protected by the surface high pressure that is
expected to push off the New England coast Tuesday night. This
high will extend along much of the eastern seaboard through the
mid-week period, keeping the area dry. A northern stream weak
low does begin to approach Thursday, bringing light mixed
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds into the region today. A wave of low
pressure passes to the south and east late tonight into
Saturday morning.

VFR through this evening, around 05Z. MVFR to IFR conditions
become likely after 05Z, especially at the NYC metro terminals
and across Long Island, as light snow moves in. More
uncertainty of lower conditions north of NYC and at KBDR and
KGON, and will depend on the track of low pressure. And timing
of improving conditions to MVFR also depends on the track of the
low.

West to northwest winds 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt, and
occasional gusts may be as high as 45 kt early this morning.
NW winds and gusts slowly weaken into this afternoon, with highs
ending around 00Z Saturday. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt
tonight, becoming light N/NE at the coast, possibly light and
variable, and light and variable elsewhere.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts before 16Z peak at 40-45 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday. MVFR or lower in the morning with light snow, then
improving to VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday: VFR. WSW wind gusts 25-30 kt.

Monday-Tuesday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gale Warnings remain in effect for all waters through 1 PM EST
Friday, with W flow gusting up to 35-40 kt, highest on the
ocean and NY Harbor. Cond improve thereafter into this evening,
with SCA cond on all waters for the rest of this afternoon,
then lingering 25-kt gusts on the ocean and eastern Sound/bays
and 5+ ft ocean seas into this evening.

After low pressure passes to the south and east on Sat, SCA cond
possible on most of the waters Sat night, and continuing into
Sunday night as another low passes to the north. There is a
possibility of marginal gale force gusts on the ocean waters,
especially E of Moriches Inlet.

Conditions will be slowly improving west to east later Sunday
evening into Monday morning as the low tracks east and weak high
pressure builds to the west. Sub SCA conditions are likely
Monday afternoon through Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through the upcoming week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ074.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NJZ107-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET