000
FXUS61 KOKX 161741
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1241 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Intensifying low pressure over the Gulf of Maine will move out
to sea today, allowing weak high pressure to briefly settle over
the waters this afternoon and evening. Another low moving east
across the southern Mid Atlantic region will move off the coast
late tonight and pass south of Long Island Saturday morning,
followed by high pressure building from the west into Saturday
night. Yet another low will pass to the north Sunday and Sunday
night, followed by high pressure from Monday through Wednesday.
Low pressure will approach from the west on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this afternoon. Winds are beginning to weaken
as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure builds into
the area. Otherwise, skies should be mostly sunny, with some
increasing clouds late this afternoon ahead of the next low to
affect the area. High temps will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Starting to see the new 12z models coming in showing a bump
north with slightly higher liquid equivalents and more organized
lift. Will be assessing the rest of the 12z guidance and any
expansion of the Advisory will occur with the afternoon package.

Guidance is fairly close on details regarding the low moving E
across the TN valley late today/this evening, then emerging off
the srn Mid Atlantic coast late tonight and passing S of Long
Island Sat morning, and most likely bringing about 1/10 to 1/4
inch liquid equivalent QPF to the area, highest across NE NJ,
NYC, and western Long Island, and lowest across southern CT,
via the associated upper jet left exit region, a mid level
shortwave trough, and H7 frontogenesis/H8 theta-E advection
just south of the area.

NE NJ and NYC lie on the edge of some potential 3-inch snowfall
amts, with the greatest likelihood of these in Union County NJ
and Staten Island NY, where a winter wx advisory has been
issued. Amts of 1-2 inches have been fcst just north of there
into up into the rest of NE NJ/NYC, Rockland/Westchester/southern
Orange, and most of Long Island, with less than an inch
elsewhere. Per latest probabilistic guidance, it is still
possible for 3-inch amts to extend farther north, especially
into the tier of zones farther north covering most of NE NJ,
NYC, and most of Long Island.

Most of the snow should fall late Fri night and perhaps the
first part of daytime Sat, with only lingering light snow
thereafter. Dry cond expected for Sat night with a gusty NW
flow.

Low temps tonight should range from the lower 30s in NYC through
the 20s elsewhere, with highs on Sat in the mid or upper 30s.
Lows Sat night will range form the mid 20s in NYC to the
mid/upper teens inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally a quiet period is expected through the long term
period with temperatures above seasonal normals, especially
Tuesday through the end of the week. An upper level trough
across eastern Canada and the northeast will be lifting into
Canada Sunday and Monday as another shortwave rotates through
the trough Sunday and Sunday night. An associated low also
tracks to the north Sunday and Sunday night. With most of the
dynamics with the low, and little moisture the area is expected
to remain dry. A cold front with the low will be weakening and
may dissipate before moving through the region Monday. The upper
level trough will be in eastern Canada Monday as a zonal flow
sets up and remains through the week. A weak upper level
shortwave approaches from the west late Tuesday night into
Wednesday, inducing a coastal storm off the Southeast Coast.
This storm is currently forecast to remain well offshore as the
area remains protected by the surface high pressure that is
expected to push off the New England coast Tuesday night. This
high will extend along much of the eastern seaboard through the
mid-week period, keeping the area dry. A northern stream weak
low does begin to approach Thursday, bringing light mixed
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds into the region today. A wave of low
pressure passes to the south and east late tonight into
Saturday morning.

VFR through this evening. Light snow brings MVFR conditions in
from the west around 06-07Z. Conditions lower to IFR a few hours
later, mainly for the NYC and Long Island terminals. There is
more uncertainty with the terminals farther north. Steady snow
ends around 12-13Z, but MVFR cigs linger through the morning.
There is also a chance for snow showers through the morning,
that could bring vsbys down to MVFR. VFR expected by the
afternoon.

NW winds and gusts slowly weaken this afternoon, with gusts
ending around 00Z Saturday. Winds diminish to less than 10 kt
tonight, becoming light N/NE at the coast, possibly light and
variable, and light and variable elsewhere. Winds then become W/NW
again late tomorrow morning, with 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts will lower through the afternoon and could end a few hours
before or after what is shown in the TAF.

Amendments likely tonight with changing categories from moving
in.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Afternoon. VFR, with potential for lingering MVFR early
afternoon. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday: VFR. WSW wind gusts 25-30 kt.

Monday-Wednesday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Gale Warnings are now in effect through 4 pm as winds are just
now starting to weaken. There will be a period after the gales
for a brief SCA on all waters before diminishing tonight. Cond
improve thereafter into this evening, with SCA cond on all
waters for the rest of this afternoon, then lingering 25-kt
gusts on the ocean and eastern Sound/bays and 5+ ft ocean seas
into this evening.

After low pressure passes to the south and east on Sat, SCA cond
possible on most of the waters Sat night, and continuing into
Sunday night as another low passes to the north. There is a
possibility of marginal gale force gusts on the ocean waters,
especially E of Moriches Inlet.

Conditions will be slowly improving west to east later Sunday
evening into Monday morning as the low tracks east and weak high
pressure builds to the west. Sub SCA conditions are likely
Monday afternoon through Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through the upcoming week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ074.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NJZ107-108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET