discussion on 2024-02-17

000
FXUS61 KOKX 171517
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1017 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure just off the Mid Atlantic coast will pass south
and east of Long Island this morning. High pressure will then
build into the area late today and into tonight. Another area
of low pressure passes well to the north Sunday and Sunday
night, sending a cold front through early Monday. High pressure
builds into the region thereafter, tracking off the New England
coast on Wednesday. Low pressure then approaches from the west,
potentially impacting the region late week.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A winter weather advisory continues until 10 AM EST for
northeastern New Jersey, NYC, Long Island and Southern
Westchester county.

Have decided to let the advisory expire at
10am since the bulk of the snow is now exiting the region.Light
to moderate snowfall continue across southern and eastern
portions o the area for the next few hours. POPs have been
increased with this update with scattered snow showers this
afternoon and early evening passing west to east. No other
changes have been made to the forecast. Snow totals so far have
ranged from 6-10 inches across SW Long Island, Staten Island and
southern portions of NE NJ. The rest of the southern portion of
Long Island is around 3-5 inches while northern portions of the
island are 2-4 inches. Lower Hudson Valley and S CT reports
range from 1.0-2.5 inches.

Once the snow ends as the associated low passes south and east
of Long Island, scattered snow showers will remain possible into
late afternoon. A few of these snow showers may produce briefly
heavy snowfall as weak surface based CAPE develops along with
weak lift in the snow growth region, and a strong vort max moves
into the upper trough. While slight chances of snow showers
continue into early this evening across the eastern areas,
precipitation may be ended by early evening as the forcing
moves east of the region.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Clouds and any continuing snow showers will be moving quickly
east early in the evening as heights begin to rise across the
region as the mid and upper trough lift into eastern Canada.
Zonal flow will dominate across the region as high pressure
become suppressed to the south late tonight into Sunday as a
surface low tracks well to the north. Westerly winds likely
increase Sunday and become gusty. Temperature will be just below
seasonal normals before a warming trend sets up Sunday night.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes were made Sunday night and Monday as low
pressure passes well to the north Sunday night and high
pressure returns Monday. Temperatures will begin to warm to
above seasonal levels.

Upper trough lifts out Sunday into Monday, with zonal flow
setting up into midweek. As the trough exits, a weak wave of low
pressure passes well to the north, dragging a dry cold front
across the region early Monday. Flow veers NW behind it as
surface high pressure builds into the Northeast, and conditions
appear to remain dry for several days. The high tracks offshore
midweek and onshore flow sets up for the remainder of the
period. Global guidance continues to keep a developing coastal
low well to the south on Wednesday, as the region remains
protected by the nearby offshore high.

Meanwhile, temperatures nudge upwards through the week, with
forecast highs in the mid to upper 30s on Sunday, rising to the
mid 40s by Thursday. Next chance for widespread precipitation
appears to come late Thursday into Friday as low pressure
approaches from the west. Plenty of time until then to monitor,
capped PoPs at chance (50%) for now given the inherent
uncertainty, otherwise, largely stayed close to the national
blend.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A fast moving wave of low pressure will pass to the south
through this morning. High pressure will then nose in from the
SW late today into tonight.

Light snow with IFR to MVFR conditions into early this afternoon,
while winds near 5-10 kts gradually back from NE to N.

Conditions improve to VFR this afternoon for most terminals, but
east of NYC terminals MVFR conditions may linger. Cannot rule
out some snow showers just before winds shift to the NW during
mid to late afternoon, with the best chances at KGON with
potential for brief MVFR conditions.

NW winds increase to 15-20G20-25kt at most terminals late this
afternoon into this evening, then should gradually diminish to
10 kt or less and back to the W or WSW late tonight.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible mainly for prevailing flight category deviating
from fcst and for timing of snow showers this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. SW winds increasing to G25-30kt.

Monday through Wednesday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
No changes at this time.

Ocean gusts and seas increase to SCA levels west to east this
afternoon into this evening as a tight pressure gradient
develops behind departing low pressure and building high
pressure to the west. Have issued a SCA west of Moriches Inlet
for this afternoon into late tonight, and for the eastern ocean
zone through tonight only. Winds and seas briefly fall below
advisory levels Sunday morning before increase once again later
Sunday as winds and seas increase with an increase gradient as
low pressure approaches to the north. SCA conditions likely
develop across all the waters around midday Sunday and a SCA
will likely be needed. Occasional gusts east of Moriches Inlet
may briefly reach gale for, however, with low confidence and the
brief period have not issued a gale watch.

Conditions improve into early Monday, and sub SCA conditions
are then expected on all waters through midweek.

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through the upcoming week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for ANZ353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...BR/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR/MET
AVIATION...BG/JM
MARINE...DR/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET