000
FXUS61 KOKX 171832
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
132 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure just off the Mid Atlantic coast will pass south
and east of Long Island this morning. High pressure will then
build into the area late today and into tonight. Another area
of low pressure passes well to the north Sunday and Sunday
night, sending a cold front through early Monday. High pressure
builds into the region thereafter, tracking off the New England
coast on Wednesday. Low pressure then approaches from the west,
potentially impacting the region late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM UPDATE: The Winter Weather Advisory that was in effect
this morning was allowed to expire at 10am. The bulk of the snow
has exited, but scattered snow showers remain a possibility
this afternoon to early evening ahead of and along a cold
frontal passage.
The latest CAMs bring 80-130 J/kg of SBCAPE to eastern Long
Island and SE CT. These same areas also show lowered
visibilities with snow squall parameter around 2.5 to 4. A
strong vort max will also move into the area with an upper
trough. In response, have added the chance for moderate snowfall
to eastern areas from 19Z to 23Z. May even see heavier bursts
of snow if the chance for snow squalls transpire.
Also in this update, have lowered temperatures and high
temperature for the day by a few degrees to account for current
observations and trends.
Snow totals so far have ranged from 6-10 inches across SW Long
Island, Staten Island and southern portions of NE NJ. The rest
of the southern portion of Long Island is around 3-5 inches
while northern portions of the island are 2-4 inches. Lower
Hudson Valley and S CT reports range from 1.0-2.5 inches.
While slight chances of snow showers continue into early this
evening across the eastern areas, precipitation may be ended by
early evening as the forcing moves east of the region and a cold
frontal passage brings drier air into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Clouds and any continuing snow showers will be moving quickly
east early in the evening as heights begin to rise across the
region as the mid and upper trough lift into eastern Canada.
Zonal flow will dominate across the region as high pressure
become suppressed to the south late tonight into Sunday as a
surface low tracks well to the north. Westerly winds likely
increase Sunday and become gusty. Temperature will be just below
seasonal normals before a warming trend sets up Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes were made Sunday night and Monday as low
pressure passes well to the north Sunday night and high
pressure returns Monday. Temperatures will begin to warm to
above seasonal levels.
Upper trough lifts out Sunday into Monday, with zonal flow
setting up into midweek. As the trough exits, a weak wave of low
pressure passes well to the north, dragging a dry cold front
across the region early Monday. Flow veers NW behind it as
surface high pressure builds into the Northeast, and conditions
appear to remain dry for several days. The high tracks offshore
midweek and onshore flow sets up for the remainder of the
period. Global guidance continues to keep a developing coastal
low well to the south on Wednesday, as the region remains
protected by the nearby offshore high.
Meanwhile, temperatures nudge upwards through the week, with
forecast highs in the mid to upper 30s on Sunday, rising to the
mid 40s by Thursday. Next chance for widespread precipitation
appears to come late Thursday into Friday as low pressure
approaches from the west. Plenty of time until then to monitor,
capped PoPs at chance (50%) for now given the inherent
uncertainty, otherwise, largely stayed close to the national
blend.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure builds in late today through early Sunday
before moving offshore.
Conditions vary from VFR to IFR but overall are mostly MVFR.
Snow exiting the area southeast of Long Island but to the north
and west, more snow showers are developing. These snow showers
will be scattered in coverage and move across the region this
afternoon, bringing potentially MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.
For this evening through rest of TAF period, dry conditions and
VFR conditions expected.
Winds will be northerly near 10 kt, increasing to 15-20 kt for
latter half of this afternoon into early evening with gusts near
25 kt. Some peak gusts up to 30 kt will be possible. Winds will
become more NW. Winds this evening will start decreasing back
down to 10-15 kt range with gusts more in the 20-25 kt range.
Winds further diminish overnight to near 10 kt with gusts
diminishing as well. Winds early Sunday increase to 10-15 kt
with gusts developing around 25-30 kt range towards late Sunday
morning into the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of snow showers this afternoon could vary 1-2 hours from
indicated in TAF. Brief IFR possible.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday afternoon: VFR. SW winds gusting to 25-30 kt.
Sunday night: VFR. W winds gusting 15-20 kt mainly along coast.
Gusts diminish away from coast.
Monday through Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes at this time.
Ocean gusts and seas increase to SCA levels west to east this
afternoon into this evening as a tight pressure gradient
develops behind departing low pressure and building high
pressure to the west. Have issued a SCA west of Moriches Inlet
for this afternoon into late tonight, and for the eastern ocean
zone through tonight only. Winds and seas briefly fall below
advisory levels Sunday morning before increase once again later
Sunday as winds and seas increase with an increase gradient as
low pressure approaches to the north. SCA conditions likely
develop across all the waters around midday Sunday and a SCA
will likely be needed. Occasional gusts east of Moriches Inlet
may briefly reach gale for, however, with low confidence and the
brief period have not issued a gale watch.
Conditions improve into early Monday, and sub SCA conditions
are then expected on all waters through midweek.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through the upcoming week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...BR/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR/MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DR/DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...MET