000
FXUS61 KOKX 172028
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
328 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build into the area after a cold frontal passage
early this evening. Another area of low pressure passes well to the
north Sunday and Sunday night, sending a cold front through early
Monday. High pressure builds into the region thereafter, tracking off the
New England coast on Wednesday. Low pressure then approaches from
the west, potentially impacting the region late week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Snow showers with the chance for snow squalls will continue
over the next hour or two for portions of southern Connecticut
and Long Island. They will then clear out of the area with the
passage of a cold front later this evening. Northwest winds
will relax behind the front, bringing in drier air and clearing
out cloud cover to leave a mostly clear night as high pressure
gradually settles in. Lows will be in the 20s to upper-teens.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Heights continue to rise on Sunday with surface high pressure
building in from the south. At the same time, a surface low tracks
well to the north through Ontario into Quebec. Westerly winds
likely increase Sunday and become gusty due to the increasing
pressure gradient. Temperatures will be below seasonal averages
on Sunday before things start to gradually warm Sunday night
back to near seasonal averages. With high pressure in control,
Sunday into Sunday night will remain mostly clear.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Heights climb to start the period as an upper trough lifts out from
the region. As it exits, a weak wave of low pressure passes well to
the north, dragging a cold front across the region Monday. Lacking
moisture and forcing, the front likely moves through dry, though the
flow veers NW behind it as surface high pressure builds into the
Northeast. The high tracks offshore midweek and onshore flow sets up
for the remainder of the period. Gradual warming trend through the
week, though not too far from normals for late February. Forecast
highs near 40 on Monday climb a couple of degrees each day, peaking
late week in the mid to upper 40s.

Next chance for widespread precipitation appears to come late
Thursday into Friday. Amplifying trough over Central Canada allows a
shortwave to dive south into the Central US midweek, with surface
low pressure deepening as it tracks east and offshore. With limited
cold air preceding, would lean toward a more wet than white
forecast, though lots of solutions remain at this point. Continued
to cap PoPs at chance (50%) for now given the inherent uncertainty
and disagreement amongst global guidance, otherwise, largely stayed
close to the national blend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in late today through early Sunday
before moving offshore.

Conditions vary from VFR to IFR but overall are mostly MVFR.

Snow exiting the area southeast of Long Island but to the north
and west, more snow showers are developing. These snow showers
will be scattered in coverage and move across the region this
afternoon, bringing potentially MVFR to possibly IFR conditions.
For this evening through rest of TAF period, dry conditions and
VFR conditions expected.

Winds will be northerly near 10 kt, increasing to 15-20 kt for
latter half of this afternoon into early evening with gusts near
25 kt. Some peak gusts up to 30 kt will be possible. Winds will
become more NW. Winds this evening will start decreasing back
down to 10-15 kt range with gusts more in the 20-25 kt range.
Winds further diminish overnight to near 10 kt with gusts
diminishing as well. Winds early Sunday increase to 10-15 kt
with gusts developing around 25-30 kt range towards late Sunday
morning into the afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of snow showers this afternoon could vary 1-2 hours from
indicated in TAF. Brief IFR possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon: VFR. SW winds gusting to 25-30 kt.

Sunday night: VFR. W winds gusting 15-20 kt mainly along coast.
Gusts diminish away from coast.

Monday through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: MVFR possible with a chance of rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
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Ocean gusts and seas increase to SCA levels this evening as a tight
pressure gradient develops behind departing low pressure and
building high pressure to the west. SCA is in place into this
evening into early tonight over ocean waters for strong gusts.
Winds and seas fall below advisory levels Sunday morning before
increasing once again later Sunday into Sunday night as winds
and seas increase with an increasing gradient as low pressure
approaches to the north. SCA conditions likely develop across
all the waters around midday Sunday. Many areas may approach
gale strength gusts, but have kept a SCA for now due to low
confidence of reaching gales. These winds, along with waves of 5
to 9 feet will maintain themselves Sunday night until Monday
morning.

Conditions improve into early Monday, and sub SCA conditions are
then expected on all waters through Wednesday.

Seas may begin to exceed 5 ft on the ocean Wednesday night or
Thursday with increasing SE swells.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through the upcoming week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ350-353.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BR/DR