000
FXUS61 KOKX 172342
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
642 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the area after a cold frontal passage
this evening. Another area of low pressure passes well to the
north Sunday and Sunday night, sending a cold front through
early Monday. High pressure builds into the region thereafter,
tracking off the New England coast on Wednesday. Low pressure
then approaches from the west, potentially impacting the region
late week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Snow showers have largely diminished early this evening as
drier air begins to work into the region. A few lingering
flurries remain possible for another hour or two, until about
1Z, particularly across southern CT and eastern LI where a bit
of weak forcing remains.

Otherwise, drying conditions tonight behind the passage of a
subtle cold front working its way through. Northwest winds will
begin to relax behind the front, and the drier air should allow
a mostly clear sky to develop overnight as high pressure
gradually settles in. Lows will be in the 20s to upper teens.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heights continue to rise on Sunday with surface high pressure
building in from the south. At the same time, a surface low tracks
well to the north through Ontario into Quebec. Westerly winds
likely increase Sunday and become gusty due to the increasing
pressure gradient. Temperatures will be below seasonal averages
on Sunday before things start to gradually warm Sunday night
back to near seasonal averages. With high pressure in control,
Sunday into Sunday night will remain mostly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Heights climb to start the period as an upper trough lifts out from
the region. As it exits, a weak wave of low pressure passes well to
the north, dragging a cold front across the region Monday. Lacking
moisture and forcing, the front likely moves through dry, though the
flow veers NW behind it as surface high pressure builds into the
Northeast. The high tracks offshore midweek and onshore flow sets up
for the remainder of the period. Gradual warming trend through the
week, though not too far from normals for late February. Forecast
highs near 40 on Monday climb a couple of degrees each day, peaking
late week in the mid to upper 40s.

Next chance for widespread precipitation appears to come late
Thursday into Friday. Amplifying trough over Central Canada allows a
shortwave to dive south into the Central US midweek, with surface
low pressure deepening as it tracks east and offshore. With limited
cold air preceding, would lean toward a more wet than white
forecast, though lots of solutions remain at this point. Continued
to cap PoPs at chance (50%) for now given the inherent uncertainty
and disagreement amongst global guidance, otherwise, largely stayed
close to the national blend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds towards the area tonight from the southwest.
The high weakens on Sunday as low pressure passes to the north.

NW winds around 15 kt will gust 20-25 kt to start. Gusts should
diminish through 03z with winds 10-13 kt before falling below 10
kt and backing to the WSW and SW early Sunday morning. SW winds
then increase after 12-13z, becoming 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30
kt. These winds will continue into the afternoon before
weakening in the evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind gusts this evening may be occasional.

Onset time of wind gusts may be off by 1-2 hours Sunday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: VFR. W winds gusting 15-20 kt early.

Monday through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of mainly rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Ocean gusts and seas increase to SCA levels this evening as the
pressure gradient tightens behind departing low pressure and
building high pressure to the west. SCA is in place into this
evening into early tonight over ocean waters for strong gusts.
Winds and seas fall below advisory levels Sunday morning before
increasing once again later Sunday into Sunday night as winds
and seas increase with an increasing gradient as low pressure
approaches to the north. SCA conditions likely develop across
all the waters around midday Sunday. Many areas may approach
gale strength gusts, but have kept a SCA for now due to low
confidence of reaching gales. These winds, along with waves of 5
to 9 feet will maintain themselves Sunday night until Monday
morning.

Conditions improve into early Monday, and sub SCA conditions are
then expected on all waters through Wednesday.

Seas may begin to exceed 5 ft on the ocean Wednesday night or
Thursday with increasing SE swells.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through the upcoming week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DR
NEAR TERM...BR/DR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BR/DR