000
FXUS61 KOKX 180222
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
922 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the area from the south and west
tonight. Another area of low pressure passes well to the north
Sunday and Sunday night, sending a cold front through early
Monday. High pressure builds into the region thereafter,
tracking off the New England coast on Wednesday. Low pressure
then approaches from the west, potentially impacting the region
late week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast on track for the rest of the night. Earlier snow
showers have ended with dry conditions expected. High pressure
to our southwest will ridge towards the area allowing for mostly
clear skies and weakening winds overnight. Winds will not
completely decouple, but should end up on the light side late
tonight into early Sunday morning. Lows will be in the 20s to
upper teens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Heights continue to rise on Sunday with surface high pressure
building in from the south. At the same time, a surface low tracks
well to the north through Ontario into Quebec. Westerly winds
likely increase Sunday and become gusty due to the increasing
pressure gradient. Temperatures will be below seasonal averages
on Sunday before things start to gradually warm Sunday night
back to near seasonal averages. With high pressure in control,
Sunday into Sunday night will remain mostly clear.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Heights climb to start the period as an upper trough lifts out from
the region. As it exits, a weak wave of low pressure passes well to
the north, dragging a cold front across the region Monday. Lacking
moisture and forcing, the front likely moves through dry, though the
flow veers NW behind it as surface high pressure builds into the
Northeast. The high tracks offshore midweek and onshore flow sets up
for the remainder of the period. Gradual warming trend through the
week, though not too far from normals for late February. Forecast
highs near 40 on Monday climb a couple of degrees each day, peaking
late week in the mid to upper 40s.
Next chance for widespread precipitation appears to come late
Thursday into Friday. Amplifying trough over Central Canada allows a
shortwave to dive south into the Central US midweek, with surface
low pressure deepening as it tracks east and offshore. With limited
cold air preceding, would lean toward a more wet than white
forecast, though lots of solutions remain at this point. Continued
to cap PoPs at chance (50%) for now given the inherent uncertainty
and disagreement amongst global guidance, otherwise, largely stayed
close to the national blend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds towards the area tonight from the southwest.
The high weakens on Sunday as low pressure passes to the north.
NW winds will continue to weaken tonight with any occasional
gusts ending by 05z. Winds should fall below 10 kt early Sunday
morning and back to the WSW and SW. SW winds then increase
after 12-13z, becoming 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. These winds
will continue into the afternoon before weakening in the
evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 15-20 kt possible through 05z.
Onset time of wind gusts may be off by 1-2 hours Sunday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: VFR. W winds gusting 15-20 kt early.
Monday through Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of mainly rain showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Have adjusted the SCA on the ocean to just continue into Sunday
night. While winds will come down, seas will be close enough to
5 ft on the ocean tonight. Winds will increase Sunday morning,
becoming 25-30 kt. There is also a chance for a few gale gusts
on the ocean. SCA conditions are also likely on the non-ocean
waters. These winds, along with waves of 5 to 9 feet will
maintain themselves Sunday night until early Monday morning.
Conditions improve into early Monday, and sub SCA conditions
are then expected on all waters through Wednesday.
Seas may begin to exceed 5 ft on the ocean Wednesday night or
Thursday with increasing SE swells.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No issues expected through the upcoming week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BR/DR
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BR/DR