000
FXUS61 KOKX 180600
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
100 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build from the south and west overnight. Low
pressure will then pass well to the north today and tonight,
sending a cold front through early Monday. High pressure will
build in thereafter, passing off the New England coast on
Wednesday. Low pressure will then approach from the west,
potentially impacting the region late this week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast on track for the overnight. High pressure to the
southwest will ridge toward the area, allowing for mostly clear
skies and diminishing WNW winds backing to the WSW-SW.
Winds will not completely decouple, but should end up on the
light side. Low temps will range from the upper teens through
the 20s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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Heights continue to rise on Sunday with surface high pressure
building in from the south. At the same time, a surface low
tracks well to the north through Ontario into Quebec.
Westerly winds likely increase Sunday and become gusty due to the
increasing pressure gradient. Temperatures will be below
seasonal averages on Sunday before things start to gradually
warm Sunday night back to near seasonal averages. With high
pressure in control, Sunday into Sunday night will remain
mostly clear.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Heights climb to start the period as an upper trough lifts out
from the region. As it exits, a weak wave of low pressure
passes well to the north, dragging a cold front across the
region Monday. Lacking moisture and forcing, the front likely
moves through dry, though the flow veers NW behind it as surface
high pressure builds into the Northeast. The high tracks
offshore midweek and onshore flow sets up for the remainder of
the period. Gradual warming trend through the week, though not
too far from normals for late February. Forecast highs near 40
on Monday climb a couple of degrees each day, peaking late week
in the mid to upper 40s.

Next chance for widespread precipitation appears to come late
Thursday into Friday. Amplifying trough over Central Canada
allows a shortwave to dive south into the Central US midweek,
with surface low pressure deepening as it tracks east and
offshore. With limited cold air preceding, would lean toward a
more wet than white forecast, though lots of solutions remain at
this point. Continued to cap PoP at chance (50%) given the
inherent uncertainty and disagreement among global model
guidance, otherwise, largely stayed close to the NBM.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR as high pressure builds from the southwest early this
morning. The high will weaken this afternoon as low pressure
passes to the north.

WNW winds will continue to weaken in the predawn hrs as they
back to the WSW-SW. SW winds then increase after 12Z-13Z to
15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt by 15Z and continue this afternoon
before weakening this evening. Winds veer to the NW tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late tonight: VFR. W winds G15-20kt early.

Monday through Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of mainly rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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SCA`s continue into Sunday night. While winds will diminish,
ocean seas will be close enough to 5 ft overnight. Winds will
increase this morning, with gusts 25-30 kt. There is also a
chance for a few gale force gusts on the ocean.

SCA conditions are also likely on the non-ocean waters daytime
Sunday. These winds, along with ocean seas 5-9 ft, will maintain
themselves until early Monday morning.

Conditions improve into early Monday, and sub SCA conditions are
then expected on all waters through Wednesday. Ocean seas may
begin to exceed 5 ft Wed night or Thu, with increasing
SE swell.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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No issues expected this week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Monday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ355.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DR
NEAR TERM...BR/DS
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BG/DS
MARINE...BR/DR
HYDROLOGY...BR/DR