000
FXUS61 KOKX 181125
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
625 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes well to the north today and tonight,
sending a weakening cold front into the region early Monday.
High pressure builds in Monday and remains Tuesday. A high
pressure ridge along the coast from Tuesday night into Wednesday
will weaken Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak frontal
system approaches from the west. Low pressure will them approach
from the southwest Thursday night into Friday, and pass south
and east of Long Island Friday into Friday night. A weak clipper
low may approach in its wake on Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated for current conditions, especially temperatures which
were several degrees colder than forecast with clear and calm
wind.
While low pressure will be tracking from north of the Great
Lakes into southeastern Canada today, with the low well to the
north and little associated moisture, the area will remain dry.
The only impacts from the low will be a few clouds to the north,
and a strong and gusty southwest to west flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The low over southeastern Canada early this evening will be
moving into the Canadian Maritimes tonight and send and
weakening cold front toward the region. The front may move into
the northern portions of the region early Monday before
dissipating as deep layered height rises will be across the
region as a ridge builds to the west and an upper trough lifts
into Canada. Zonal flow will continue late Monday through
Tuesday as surface high pressure builds over the area Monday and
remains Tuesday. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast mostly follows NBM as it captures the overall trends in
global model guidance during this time. Modeling initially depicts a
sfc high pressure ridge along the East Coast, with an offshore storm
passing well to the SE. Then heights aloft begin to fall Wed night
into Thu as a closed low moves SE into Ontario, with an associated
weak frontal system approaching from the west, and no more than
slight chance PoP NW of NYC during this time.
A srn stream impulse should also partially phase with northern
stream troughing over the Northeast mid to late week, with a sfc low
traversing the Plains and OH/TN valleys Wed night-Thu, then moving
into the Mid Atlantic region and passing offshore Thu night-Fri
while slowly intensifying. Thermal profiles support a period of snow
inland Thu night-Fri morning and mainly rain along the coast,
changing to a light to moderate rain throughout on Fri, with NBM 60-
70% PoP capped at 50% as with the previous forecast.
As the sys pulls away to the E Fri night, precip could end as snow
or a rain/snow mix. Fcst carries a 20% PoP for snow showers into
daytime Sat as some of the guidance shows a trailing nrn stream vort
max and weak sfc clipper low approaching.
Temps should be near normal on Wed, trending to a few degrees above
normal Thu-Fri with the approach of the weak frontal sys and wave of
low pressure. Temps a little below normal expected on Sat after
passage of this system.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure builds from the southwest early this
morning. The high will weaken this afternoon as low pressure
passes to the north.
Light W-WSW flow will become SW by daybreak, and increase after
12Z-13Z, to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt by 15Z, and continuing
this afternoon. Winds diminish this evening and veer to the NW
tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Late tonight: VFR. W winds G15-20kt early.
Monday through Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Slight chance rain/snow showers at KSWF with brief MVFR
cond possible, otherwise VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A SCA remains across most of the forecast into late tonight as
a strong and gusty westerly flow will prevail as low pressure
tracks from the Great Lakes region into southeastern Canada.
Marginal gale force gusts are expected across the ocean waters
east of Moriches Inlet from around midday into this evening, and
a gale warning continues. With guidance having been indicating
the marginal gale gusts for the passed couple of days have
decided to upgrade to the warning. Once the gale conditions end
SCA conditions will remain into Monday morning. On the remainder
of the waters SCA conditions will be ending west to east late
tonight/toward Monday morning as the low moves into the Canadian
Maritimes and high pressure builds into the forecast waters.
Sub advisory conditions are expected on all the waters Monday
afternoon through Wednesday. While winds from late Wed night
into Thu night should remain sub-SCA, incoming swell from an
offshore storm could build ocean seas to 5-7 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues today through the week. QPF Thu night- Fri
night ranges from 1/2 to 3/4 inch.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET